Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Turkey Softens, India Watches Monsoon Skies
Concise July 2026 raisin market report: stable prices across India, Türkiye, China, Chile and Afghanistan, tight global supply and key weather drivers.
Prices
Indicative export and European FCA prices (converted to EUR at ~1.00 USD = 0.92 EUR):
In Izmir, spot sultana prices for standard export grades have traded in a tight band in recent days, with only marginal declines in some low-quality parcels, pointing to good nearby coverage by EU buyers but no panic buying. Indian New Delhi offers appear well-anchored after gains seen earlier in July, while China, Chile and Afghanistan-origin raisins in Northwest Europe are also unchanged week-on-week.
Supply & Demand
Global raisin and sultana supply in 2025/26 is slightly tighter year-on-year. The latest industry balance sheet points to a notable production drop in India and Türkiye, partially offset by larger crops in China and modest gains in Chile and Afghanistan. Consumption remains resilient, helped by stable snack and bakery demand in Europe and the Middle East, meaning that ending stocks are projected to fall again this season.
Türkiye still dominates global sultana trade, but smaller output and lower beginning stocks have kept export availability tighter than usual. China’s Turpan Basin, which accounts for over 80% of Chinese raisin production, is now at the height of the table-grape harvest; normal conditions here support a recovery in Chinese raisin output and increased competition into price-sensitive markets. Afghanistan’s production, though much smaller in absolute terms, is forecast higher this season and continues to supply the lower-priced feed and industrial segment.
Weather & Crop Watch (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)
India (IN)
Nashik and adjacent districts, India’s key grape and raisin belt, saw intense monsoon spells in July, sharply reducing earlier rainfall deficits; district rainfall shortfall has narrowed to around 5.5%, and forecasts indicate further showers with thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. This pattern raises disease-pressure risks for vines but also secures water for the 2026/27 season.
Nationally, July rainfall has tended to run below long-term normals and temperatures above average, keeping overall moisture conditions tighter than usual. For now, traders are not pricing in major crop losses; instead, they are monitoring for any late-July or August disease outbreaks in Nashik–Sangli vineyards, which could affect grape quality and future raisin availability.
China (CN)
In Turpan, Xinjiang, hot and dry July conditions have brought the grape harvest to its peak across more than 42,000 hectares of vineyards. Such weather is ideal for sun-drying green grapes into raisins, supporting both yield and sugar concentration. This underpins expectations for a strong Chinese contribution to global raisin supply in 2026.
Türkiye (TR)
Recent weeks in the Aegean and Malatya regions have been seasonally warm and dry, with no major new frost or hail incidents reported in late July. Earlier in the year, frost damage concerns had pushed up price expectations, but current weather is largely neutral for the maturing grape crop. With veraison progressing normally, traders now focus more on export demand and currency moves than on weather.
Chile (CL)
Chile is in the Southern Hemisphere winter, with vineyards in a dormant to pruning phase. No significant new weather shocks have been reported in the last few days, and earlier assessments indicated slightly improved grape and raisin production for 2025/26. As a result, Chilean flame jumbo raisins continue to offer a consistent, mid-high price alternative into Europe.
Afghanistan (AF)
Afghanistan’s raisin output is expected to be modestly higher this season after previous disruptions, according to global industry forecasts. There are no widely reported acute weather events in the last few days affecting major grape-growing areas, so current price stability for Afghan feed-grade raisins in Europe is likely to persist near term.
Fundamentals & Trade Flows
The latest global industry assessment shows 2025/26 raisin and sultana production at roughly 1.16 million tonnes, down from over 1.34 million tonnes in 2024/25. Consumption is projected only marginally lower, implying another drawdown in stocks and structurally supportive prices, especially for higher-quality seedless grades.
Within this, India and Türkiye account for the largest production declines, while China is set for a strong rebound from improved vineyard conditions and better water management. Trade flows are tilting slightly toward Chinese and Chilean origins in price-sensitive destinations, but EU buyers continue to rely heavily on Türkiye for sultanas and India for specific grades such as Malayar and Nashik/Tasgaon raisins.
3-Day Price Outlook & Trading Views
3-day indicative directional outlook (in EUR)
- India – New Delhi FOB (all grades): Sideways. Monsoon risks are noted but already in view; no fresh price shock expected over the next 3 days.
- Türkiye – Malatya/Izmir FOB: Slightly softer bias on sultanas as export activity is steady rather than brisk, but any moves are likely to stay within a narrow band.
- China / Chile / Afghanistan – EU FCA: Flat. Adequate stock in European warehouses and stable freight costs limit short-term volatility.
Trading recommendations (short term)
- Food industry buyers (EU & MENA): Use current stability in Turkish and Indian offers to extend cover modestly into Q4 2026, especially for premium golden and organic sultanas, given structurally tighter global balances.
- Blenders and feed users: Consider diversifying into Afghan and Indian Malayar feed-grade raisins while differentials to edible grades remain historically wide.
- Exporters in India and Türkiye: Maintain offer discipline; with stocks trending lower globally, undercutting on price now offers limited strategic benefit compared to preserving margins.