Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Xinjiang Heat Supports Quality Advantage

Raisin prices are broadly steady across key origins, with Chinese sultanas maintaining a small discount to premium Turkish product and a slight edge over Indian grades. Very hot, dry weather in Xinjiang’s Turpan basin is supporting good drying conditions and quality, while Indian farm-gate prices in Maharashtra remain firm but not surging. In the short term, export offers look stable in EUR terms, with only modest upside risk from weather and logistics rather than from demand. Across major producing regions, the current environment is price-neutral to mildly supportive. In Turpan, China’s main raisin hub, maximum temperatures around 38–39°C and virtually no rain create ideal conditions for grape ripening and sun-drying, enhancing colour and sugar concentration and limiting disease pressure.   In India’s Sangli–Tasgaon belt, government-reported dry grapes prices have firmed but remain within recent seasonal ranges, pointing to balanced local supply.   Turkish Sultana vineyards around Manisa are experiencing typical hot, dry midsummer weather, with no fresh reports of crop stress this week.   On the demand side, steady EU import growth and competitive Chinese export pricing keep trade flows active but do not yet translate into aggressive price moves.  

Prices

Spot and offer levels converted to EUR (approx. 1 EUR = 1.10 USD):

Chinese export-grade sultanas shipped into North Europe are pricing slightly below Turkish equivalents and at a modest premium to Indian FOB brown/black raisins (AA grades). Indian bird-feed Malayar remains the clear floor of the complex, trading at roughly half the level of edible-grade sultanas.

Supply & Demand

Turpan’s Grape Valley in Xinjiang continues to underpin China’s role as the world’s leading green raisin supplier, accounting for more than 80% of national production.   Recent trade data show Chinese raisin exports to the EU and UK have grown strongly over the last marketing year, as competitive pricing and improved quality help China win share from traditional suppliers.  

In India, Sangli and Tasgaon remain the key hubs for dry grapes and raisin exports, with government-backed mandi data showing average prices in Tasgaon around INR 32,600/tonne and Sangli mandi around INR 29,250/tonne in late July 2026.   This indicates firm local demand and limited downside for export parity, but not an acute shortage.

Turkey’s Manisa region is entering the crucial phase for Sultana grapes, with local bulletins and historical climate data indicating seasonally hot, dry weather that supports sugar accumulation without major stress signals this week.   Global balance sheets compiled earlier this year still point to a broadly adequate world raisin/sultana crop, with no major weather shock emerging in late July.  

Weather & Crop Conditions (focus: CN)

In Turpan, Xinjiang, 5–14 day forecasts call for maximum temperatures near 38–39°C with very low rainfall probabilities and high sunshine hours.   These conditions are highly favourable for both late grape ripening and sun-drying in traditional raisin drying houses, limiting disease pressure and reducing drying times.

Earlier-season concerns about water availability in some Chinese grape areas have eased as improved water management and more normal 2026 climate conditions supported a recovery in vineyard yields versus 2025.   With no new extreme weather alerts in Xinjiang this week, the near-term weather risk to Chinese raisin supply appears low.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• China supply recovery: Sector dashboards project higher grape output in 2026 after last year’s weather disruptions in Xinjiang, implying comfortable availability of raw material for raisin drying.  
• Firm but orderly Indian market: Stable to slightly higher mandi prices in Sangli/Tasgaon signal resilient domestic and export demand, but not a spike that would force global prices sharply higher.  
• Macroeconomic backdrop: China’s imports and broader commodity bill have risen on the back of recovering domestic demand, but this is having only a muted, indirect impact on processed dried fruit prices so far.  
• Speculative interest: No evidence of significant speculative positioning in raisins specifically; most activity remains in broader soft-commodity baskets, leaving the physical market as the key driver.

3–5 Day Outlook & Trading Views

Near-term directional view (next 3 days): With benign weather in Xinjiang and Manisa and steady Indian mandi prices, raisin values are likely to remain range-bound in EUR terms. FX volatility is modest, and freight conditions are stable, limiting exogenous shocks.

• Buyers (importers, packers): Use current flat pricing to extend coverage modestly into Q4, especially for Chinese green and dark raisins, which remain competitively priced against Turkish offers.
• Origin sellers (CN, IN, TR): Maintain offer discipline; avoid aggressive discounts given supportive weather and firm local markets, but be prepared for limited tactical cuts if EU demand softens post-summer.
• Feed-grade users: Consider forward-covering Malayar/industrial grades while the discount to edible quality remains historically wide.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional, EUR)

• North Europe (DE/NL, CN and TR origins): Sideways; FCA offers for standard sultanas expected to hold within ±1% of current levels.
• India FOB (Nhava Sheva, IN origins): Slightly firm bias; limited downside as Sangli/Tasgaon mandi prices stay elevated.
• Türkiye FOB (İzmir, TR sultanas): Flat; no fresh crop or weather news to justify near-term moves.