Raisin Prices Hold Steady as Turkish Offers Correct, Indian Supply Faces Wet Monsoon Risks

Raisin prices are broadly steady to slightly softer, with Turkish sultanas correcting from earlier highs while Indian grades in New Delhi remain flat to mildly firmer in EUR terms. Strong sunshine in Turkey’s Malatya region supports drying conditions, whereas Nashik in India faces persistent monsoon rains and local heavy-rain alerts, raising quality and drying risks rather than immediate yield loss. For the next three days, we expect sideways-to-soft prices ex-Turkey, and a slightly firmer tone for higher-grade Indian raisins if rains disrupt post-harvest handling. After several weeks of relative stability, the raisin market is showing the first signs of regional divergence. Turkish sultana prices are easing from peak levels as exporters adjust offers amid comfortable spot availability and good drying weather. In India, by contrast, persistent monsoon activity over Maharashtra is increasing uncertainty around grape-to-raisin conversion and quality, especially for Nashik-origin material. Import demand into Europe remains steady but not aggressive, with buyers opportunistically testing lower bids on Turkish and Chinese origins. In this context, short-term trading decisions hinge more on localized weather and logistics than on any clear shift in global demand.

Prices

Turkish FOB Malatya sultanas show a mixed but overall softer profile in USD, translating into modest declines in EUR terms. Type 8 grade A has dropped sharply versus mid-July, while type 9 grade A and type 10 grade A now trade in a tighter, slightly lower band. Organic type 9 has remained a clear premium but is stable week-on-week.

In India, New Delhi FOB prices for food-grade raisins (black, brown, golden AA) have been broadly stable over the past week, with only marginal upticks for golden and black grades in local-currency terms. Bird feed grade Malayar remains at a deep discount, with virtually no price movement. EU FCA prices for Chinese and Turkish product in North-West Europe are steady, suggesting balanced nearby supply-demand.

Supply & Demand

In Turkey, spot transactions on the İzmir Commodity Exchange for seedless sultanas this week indicate stable to slightly weaker TRY/kg levels compared with earlier in July, pointing to adequate near-term availability and limited buying urgency from export markets.  Malatya and Aegean grape areas currently benefit from hot, dry weather, which is supportive for ongoing vine growth and subsequent drying conditions for new-crop sultanas.

In India, Maharashtra remains the core raisin-grape region, with Nashik division a major contributor to national grape output.  Above-normal July rainfall has sharply improved overall Kharif sowing momentum in the state after a weak June,  but it also raises humidity and disease pressure for perennial crops such as grapes. Retail and food-industry demand for raisins in Europe, reported via French wholesale quotes, remains steady around mid-3 EUR/kg for packed sultanas,  suggesting little scope for exporters to push significant price hikes in the short term.

Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, TR)

Turkey (Malatya): The next three days (30 July–1 August) are forecast hot and sunny, with daytime highs rising from about 35°C to near 38°C and no significant rain.  This pattern is ideal for grape ripening and later drying, reducing immediate production risk and supporting a comfortable supply outlook for Turkish sultanas.

India (Nashik, Maharashtra): By contrast, Nashik faces continued monsoon conditions. Forecasts for 30 July–1 August call for cloudy, breezy weather with intermittent rain, including periods of heavier showers and a yellow heavy-rain watch for the broader region.  Recent coverage notes excess July rains have already reversed earlier Kharif deficits,  which is broadly positive for water availability but also raises the risk of fungal diseases and drying challenges for grapes destined for raisins.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Turkey: Stable to easing TRY prices on the İzmir Bourse, combined with very favorable weather, point to a relaxed short-term supply situation. Exporters are more focused on sustaining volumes than on testing higher price levels. 
• India: After earlier rainfall deficits, Maharashtra has moved into an excess-rain regime that supports reservoirs and soil moisture but complicates disease management and drying logistics for grape growers.  This could selectively tighten availability of top-quality Nashik raisins later in the season.
• Demand side: European wholesale indicators show steady demand at around 3.8 EUR/kg for packed sultanas, with no signs of either demand destruction or panic buying.  Buyers remain price-sensitive and tend to shift between origins based on relative value rather than committing to large forward volumes.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Importers in Europe/MENA: Use current Turkish softness to secure short-covering for standard sultanas (type 9–10) at or slightly below prevailing EUR levels. Avoid overcommitting on organic premiums until clearer signals emerge on new-crop quality.
• Indian packers/exporters: With continued rains in Nashik, prioritize quality segregation and invest in drying and storage to protect higher-grade stock. A modest upside in EUR offers for golden and black AA is defensible if prolonged humidity reduces saleable premium tonnage.
• Feed and industrial users: Maintain a flexible origin mix across Indian bird-feed grades and African/Chinese feed raisins, as this segment remains well supplied with flat pricing.

3-Day Regional Price Direction (IN, TR)

• Turkey (Malatya sultanas, FOB/CIF): Sideways to slightly softer in EUR as hot, dry weather underpins supply and buyers continue to negotiate small discounts.
• India (Nashik/New Delhi raisins, FOB/FCA): Slight upward bias for food-grade AA (especially golden and black) if persistent rainfall and heavy-rain alerts translate into localized quality losses and higher drying costs; bird-feed grades expected to remain stable.