Raisin Prices Slide as Exports Rebound but Farmers Still Under Pressure

Raisin prices have fallen sharply in recent days, triggering a rebound in exports, but the income situation for Turkish farmers remains strained despite intervention signals from state buyers. After a week of price declines, export demand has picked up, confirming the usual pattern: high export volumes at low prices and muted shipments when prices are elevated. This dynamic leaves growers squeezed in both scenarios. Tariş’s decision to open with a relatively low 80 TL/kg purchase level weighed on sentiment, while TMO’s later move to enter at around 100 TL/kg has offered some psychological support, even though actual buying volumes are still limited. In parallel, exporter feedback from SIAL Paris (17–21 October 2026) suggests that, so far, the fair has not delivered a major breakthrough in new raisin business.

Prices

The past week has seen a clear downward adjustment in Turkish raisin quotations. For Malatya-origin sultanas, type 9, grade RTU, CIF, the latest listed price is 1.79 EUR/kg, unchanged day-on-day but down from 2.20 EUR/kg quoted on 16 October. Standard export references from Malatya currently show FOB prices of 1.734 EUR/kg for sultanas type 9 grade A, 1.712 EUR/kg for type 8 grade A, and 1.823 EUR/kg for type 10 grade A, also stable today but sharply lower versus mid-October levels.

Organic Turkish sultanas, type 9 grade A, continue to trade at a marked premium at 3.10 EUR/kg FOB and have been stable for several weeks. Competing origins remain broadly steady: Indian AA-grade brown and black raisins are quoted at 1.99 and 1.95 EUR/kg FOB New Delhi, while Chinese sultanas type 9 RTU standard grade are around 1.751–1.764 EUR/kg FCA Hamburg. The rapid price correction is in line with exporter reports of softer international demand and aggressive competition among origins.

Supply & Demand

Lower prices have immediately stimulated Turkish export activity. For the week of 17 October, raisin exports reached 4,558 tons—around 1,200 tons more than the same week last year—highlighting the strong price elasticity of international demand. However, the average export sale price has slipped to about 2,300 USD/ton, well below the 3,500 USD/ton seen in the comparable period a year ago, underscoring the income pressure on the supply side.

Farmers are currently in a holding pattern, waiting for appointments and clearer signals on the scale of TMO purchasing at the announced 100 TL/kg level. With Tariş buying at only 80 TL/kg, many growers see TMO as the key stabilizing factor. Until state-backed volumes materialize, sellers are likely to remain defensive, releasing product cautiously even as exporters try to capitalize on lower prices to win market share.

Fundamentals & Trade Fairs

The fundamental backdrop is shaped by ample exportable supply and intense competition among origins, while demand growth appears moderate rather than explosive. Exporters have just showcased their product range at SIAL Paris 2026 (17–21 October), one of the largest global food trade fairs, alongside a broad dried-fruit offering from many countries. Early anecdotal feedback suggests that, for Turkish raisins, the fair has not yet yielded the hoped-for wave of new contracts.

This means that, in the short term, price formation will remain dominated by traditional buyers and tender business rather than a sudden expansion of new-market demand. With exports already elevated in volume terms, further upside on shipments will depend mainly on how aggressively sellers are willing to price and whether currency and logistics conditions remain supportive.

Weather & Production Context

Weather in key Turkish raisin-growing regions has entered a seasonally quieter phase, with harvest largely behind and no immediate weather shock threatening the current crop. At this stage of the marketing year, production risks play a smaller role than policy, currency and trade dynamics. Attention is therefore squarely on how much of the crop will be absorbed by TMO and cooperatives versus pushed onto the export market at discounted levels.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Short-term price bias: With exports responsive to low prices but TMO purchases still limited, the near-term bias remains mildly bearish to sideways. Additional downside is possible if state buying does not ramp up as expected.
• For importers: Consider using current levels to secure medium-term needs, especially for Turkish sultanas type 9 and 10, while keeping some flexibility in case of further modest price erosion.
• For exporters: Focus on volume-oriented destinations and long-term contracts to lock in demand while prices are competitive, but avoid excessive undercutting that could further depress average realization.
• For farmers and cooperatives: Monitor TMO appointment schedules closely and prioritize sales into the 100 TL/kg program where possible, using export channels mainly as a secondary outlet until state-buying clarity improves.

3-Day Directional View

• Turkey – Malatya (FOB/CIF sultanas types 8–10): Prices expected to move sideways to slightly softer as the market digests recent declines and awaits clearer TMO activity.
• Northwest Europe – Dordrecht/Hamburg (FCA mixed origins): Mostly stable indications, with buyers monitoring Turkish offers closely for any additional discounting.
• India – New Delhi (FOB AA grades): Stable tone; limited immediate price reaction expected given already competitive levels and focus on maintaining export flows.