Raisin prices are broadly stable this week, with Turkish sultana benchmarks holding firm and Chinese-origin offers into Europe remaining competitively priced in EUR terms. A slight easing in some EU stock positions is visible, but no major shock is pushing the market out of its current sideways range.
The overall market tone is neutral to slightly soft, especially where Indian grades have eased, while Turkish and Chinese supply looks comfortable. In China’s Xinjiang, warm to hot early‑May weather supports good drying and storage conditions without any acute weather stress for vines in the next few days. Freight costs on Asia–Europe routes remain elevated due to Red Sea disruptions, cushioning downside moves in landed EUR prices. Buyers in the EU and Asia can still secure coverage at historically reasonable levels, but should not expect deep discounts in the very near term.
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📈 Prices & Spreads
Benchmark Turkish sultana export prices in EUR are reported stable week‑on‑week as of 5–6 May 2026, with offers described as firm but not aggressively rising. EU stock positions for Turkish product have seen some downward adjustment from April peaks, bringing replacement offers closer to current spot levels.
Chinese sultana offers into EU hubs remain slightly below equivalent Turkish grades, positioning China as a price‑competitive alternative for Q2–Q3 2026 coverage. A representative wholesale reference for blond/Thompson‑type raisins in France stands around EUR 5.40/kg as of 5 May 2026, illustrating the significant margin between upstream export/FCA prices and downstream wholesale levels.
| Origin / Type | Location & Term | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey, Sultana type 9–10 (conv.) | Export FOB/CIF | ≈ 2.20–2.40 | Stable |
| China, Sultana type 9 | FCA EU hubs | ≈ 2.10–2.20 | Slightly soft / stable |
| India, mixed grades | FOB India | ≈ 1.75–2.30 | Slight easing |
(All price levels converted into EUR based on recent market commentary and export offers.)
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
Turkey remains the key benchmark origin for sultana raisins, with Q1 2026 exports valued at about USD 106.9 million, confirming its leading role in global trade. Recent export‑oriented analysis underscores Türkiye’s strong competitiveness in EU raisin markets over 2005–2023, suggesting no structural erosion of its position. Sector reports this week highlight that Turkish raisin exports are “strong” and prices broadly steady, contributing to a firm but range‑bound global market.
China (driven by Xinjiang) is highlighted as an increasingly important competitor: recent market commentary notes that Chinese raisin offers into Europe have rebounded and are actively recommended as price‑competitive alternatives, especially as India and Turkey saw temporary tightness earlier in the season. Global production data for 2025/26 indicate robust supply from major origins including China, Türkiye and India, helping cap any aggressive price rallies despite localized weather concerns.
📊 Fundamentals & Logistics
A recent global outlook for April–early May 2026 describes raisin prices as “broadly stable to slightly softer”, with Turkey holding firm while Indian grades ease marginally. Demand from the EU remains steady, but buyers have become more selective, slowing any further price appreciation. Comfortable stock levels in Turkey and good availability from China underpin a balanced fundamental picture.
On the logistics side, Red Sea disruptions keep Asia–Europe freight rates elevated, with some reports indicating more than 20% higher shipping costs and longer transit times into May 2026. This adds a cost floor for landed raisin prices in Europe and moderates the pass‑through of any small declines at origin. For Chinese and Indian exporters, freight remains a key variable for netback calculations and competitiveness versus nearer origins like Turkey.
🌦 Weather Focus: Xinjiang & Turkish Vineyards
In Turpan and broader Xinjiang, grape and raisin heartlands benefit from typically dry and sunny spring conditions. Recent sector analysis reported no disruptive events in April and suggested that mild, seasonally normal weather was supporting good drying and storage conditions for existing stocks.
The short‑term forecast for Xinjiang from 7 to 9 May 2026 points to warm to hot conditions, with highs generally in the low‑ to mid‑30s °C in parts of the region and some localized cloud or showers. This is positive for current warehouse conditions and vine development, without immediate signs of frost or severe storms. In Turkey, early‑May weather in key fruit regions is described as seasonally cool but stable, reducing acute frost risk, which supports expectations of steady supply for the upcoming crop.
📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Market commentary this week characterizes Turkish raisin prices as likely to stay firm but range‑bound, while Chinese offers into Europe carry a slight downward bias as competition intensifies for spot business. No new macro or freight shock has emerged in the last days to disturb this corridor.
- For EU buyers: Use current stability to extend coverage modestly into Q3 on Turkish benchmarks, while blending in Chinese origin for price optimization, especially on standard sultana specifications.
- For Chinese exporters: Maintain competitive EUR pricing into EU hubs but guard margins against elevated freight; focus on reliability and documentation to capture share from Indian grades.
- For traders in CN: Consider small long positions in competitively priced Chinese stock while monitoring Turkish weather and currency; any negative Turkish weather surprise could quickly reprime global benchmarks.
📍 3-Day EUR Price Indications (Direction)
Directional view for 7–9 May 2026, based on current offers and fundamentals:
- Europe (FCA, Chinese & Turkish sultanas): Sideways; spot trades expected within current EUR ranges as no fresh drivers emerge in the next 72 hours.
- Turkey (FOB sultanas): Firm/flat; exporters likely to defend current offer levels amid steady demand and manageable stocks.
- India (FOB various grades): Slightly soft; modest downward drift possible on weaker local demand and competition from China.