Raisin Prices Steady to Softer as Turkish FOB Edges Higher, Asia Eases

Raisin prices are broadly stable with a mild upward bias out of Turkey, while Indian and Chinese origins show slight softness and Chilean and Afghan product remain under gentle pressure. Weather is currently benign in key producing regions, and trade flows from Afghanistan and Xinjiang continue to normalise, keeping nearby supply comfortable.

Global raisin markets are in a consolidation phase, with no major weather or crop shocks reported in Turkey, India, China’s Xinjiang, Chile or Afghanistan. Turkey retains its role as key price setter in sultanas, supported by firm export demand and a weaker lira, whereas India and China compete aggressively into price‑sensitive markets. Afghanistan’s raisin exports have grown sharply as new processing capacity comes online, while Xinjiang dried‑fruit exports also increased in 2025, adding to regional supply. Overall, the near‑term bias is for sideways to slightly softer prices ex‑Asia, with Turkey and premium grades holding better.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Moves

All prices below are approximate and converted to EUR using recent FX levels.

Origin / Grade	Location & Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Δ
TR sultanas type 9, RTU	Malatya, CIF	~€2.21	Stable
TR sultanas type 9, grade A	Malatya, FOB	~€2.16	+3%
TR sultanas type 10, grade A	Malatya, FOB	~€2.43	+3%
TR organic sultanas type 9	Malatya, FOB	~€2.92	Stable
IN golden raisins AA	New Delhi, FOB	~€2.12	-1%
IN brown raisins AA	New Delhi, FOB	~€1.71	-1%
IN black raisins AA	New Delhi, FOB	~€1.65	-1%
CN sultanas no.9 AA	Dordrecht, FCA	~€1.99	-1%
CN sultanas no.9 std	Hamburg, FCA	~€2.04	+1%
CL flame jumbo	Dordrecht, FCA	~€2.26	-1%
AF raisins, feed brown	Dordrecht, FCA	~€1.76	-1%
TR sultanas no.9 RTU	Dordrecht, FCA	~€2.62	-1%

• Turkey: FOB sultanas firmed ~€0.06/kg over the past week, recovering part of the February drop.
• India: Golden, brown and black grades eased by ~€0.02/kg from last week after a prior run‑up.
• China & Chile: FCA prices in North‑West Europe are marginally softer, reflecting ample stocks.
• Afghan feed‑grade: Slight easing in Europe as export availability improves from the 2025 crop.

🌍 Supply & Trade Flows (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

• Afghanistan (AF): Dry‑fruit exports, including raisins, rose strongly in 2025 to about 205,000 tonnes of mixed nuts and dried fruits worth USD 667 million, signalling larger exportable surpluses into 2026. New processing capacity near Kabul is improving quality and grading, helping more volumes reach EU and Gulf buyers.
• Turkey (TR): No major weather or crop issues are reported for the 2025/26 sultana season; exporters remain active, and Turkey continues to anchor global sultana pricing into Europe and MENA.
• India (IN): Raisins from Maharashtra and Karnataka compete strongly on price. Broader Indian agri exports face logistics disruptions toward the Middle East, but raisins are less exposed than basmati rice and continue to find demand in South Asia and CIS markets.
• China (CN): Xinjiang remains a major green‑raisin origin; Turpan alone produces roughly 220,000 tonnes of raisins a year, accounting for over 80% of China’s output. Fruit exports from Xinjiang grew by 33% in 2025, pointing to robust export channels and sustained supply.
• Chile (CL): No fresh shocks reported; Chilean Flame jumbo exports continue steadily, mainly serving premium blends and bakery demand in Europe.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Snapshot

• Turkey (TR): Late‑winter weather has been seasonally normal in Aegean and Eastern Anatolia vineyards, with no widespread reports of frost or heavy rain damage so far, supporting stable yield expectations for the coming grape season.
• India (IN): Post‑harvest conditions in key raisin belts have been mostly dry, favourable for sun‑drying and storage; no large‑scale quality losses have been reported in trade channels.
• China (CN/Xinjiang): The region recently recorded strong grain and fruit output; improved power infrastructure in Turpan supports industrial drying, helping maintain consistent raisin quality and throughput.
• Chile (CL): Central Chile is transitioning out of the grape harvest window with generally benign late‑season conditions, allowing normal drying for export‑grade raisins.
• Afghanistan (AF): After earlier export disruptions and temporary bans in 2024 that depressed farmgate prices, trade conditions have improved: raisin exports reportedly almost tripled into 2025/26 as new corridors and processing capacity came online.

📆 3-Day Price Direction Outlook (EUR)

• Turkey (TR): Sideways to slightly firmer. Strong export demand and stable fundamentals suggest FOB and CIF sultanas hold current levels or gain up to €0.02/kg over the next three days.
• India (IN): Mildly softer. After recent easing, Indian raisins may see another small €0.01–0.02/kg downward adjustment as exporters compete for orders.
• China (CN): Sideways. Abundant Xinjiang supply and stable logistics imply little near‑term change in FCA prices into Europe.
• Chile (CL): Sideways to slightly softer. New‑crop availability into EU warehouses and competition from Turkish and Chinese origins cap upside.
• Afghanistan (AF): Sideways to slightly softer on feed‑grade material in Europe, reflecting improving export flows and still‑ample stocks.

📌 Trading Outlook

• Buyers (packers, bakery, industry): Use current stability to extend short‑term cover (1–2 months) in Turkey and China origins; consider staggered buying in India, where slight further downside is possible.
• Exporters (AF, IN, TR): Focus on quality differentiation and certification; with Xinjiang and Turkish volumes ample, premiums will concentrate on higher grades and traceable supply chains.
• Traders: Spread opportunities remain limited; watch for any early‑season weather issues in Turkish or Indian vineyards that could quickly shift sentiment.