Raisins on the Edge: TMO Price Signal and Heat Stress Shape New Season

Raisin markets are entering a highly volatile window as the sector waits for the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to announce its new season price, while an imminent heat spike raises the risk of yield losses and firmer export prices. Despite expectations of a large harvest, temperatures approaching 40°C in key Turkish grape regions threaten tip dieback and potential crop damage. With around 210,000 tons already registered and 10,900 tons added in July alone, supply looks comfortable on paper, but the combination of administrative pricing and weather risk is keeping exporters and buyers on edge. How this week’s heat translates into actual yield and price moves should become clearer over the coming week.

Prices

The market’s immediate focus is the pending TMO announcement for grade 8 raisins, where participants widely expect a level around 140 TL/kg. If confirmed, domestic free-market prices are anticipated to clear in the 85–90 TL/kg range, setting a relatively high seasonal floor for raw material.

Converted into export terms, current offers for Turkish sultanas provide an indication of where international buyers are positioned. Recent quotations for Malatya-origin sultanas show:

These levels, together with the expected TMO intervention, suggest limited downside for Turkish raisins into the new campaign and leave room for export prices to open the season at a premium if yield losses materialise.

Supply & Demand

Registrations so far of around 210,000 tons, with 10,900 tons added in July, point to a structurally ample supply base. Initial field expectations have been for a high harvest this year, reinforcing the perception of comfortable physical availability at the start of the season.

However, this supply picture is now being challenged by the forecast spike in temperatures towards 40°C in key raisin-grape areas of Türkiye this week. Such extremes can trigger tip dieback in grapes, reducing berry quality and effective yield at drying, and may ultimately offset the initially optimistic crop expectations.

On the demand side, core import regions in Europe and beyond continue to show steady interest, with Turkish origin competing against Indian, Chinese and Chilean raisins. Current European warehouse indications for Turkish and Chilean product around EUR 2.50–2.95/kg underline that buyers are still willing to pay up for quality and proximity, but are cautious about overcommitting ahead of clearer news on the Turkish crop and policy stance.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental setup is a classic tug-of-war: prospective large crop versus acute weather risk. The high registration figure suggests growers and traders were confident enough in volumes to commit product early, but the timing of this week’s heat wave coincides with sensitive stages for grape development and drying. Tip dieback and sunburn can cut usable tonnage and push a larger share of grapes into lower-value grades.

In this context, the TMO’s anticipated 140 TL/kg grade 8 reference would act as a strong support, helping growers cover rising input costs and limiting any free-market capitulation in the event that the harvest ultimately proves less affected than feared. Conversely, if field inspections next week confirm meaningful yield losses, the same administrative floor could quickly become a launchpad for higher export prices as exporters compete for reduced high-grade supply.

Weather-wise, sustained near-40°C conditions over several days would be the main short-term risk factor to watch. The market will closely monitor reports from vineyards over the next week to gauge the scale of any damage and its distribution across key raisin-producing micro-regions.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers: Consider securing a portion of Q4–Q1 needs at current EUR 2.20–2.30/kg FOB levels for Turkish sultanas, as the risk/reward skew is increasingly asymmetric to the upside if heat damage is confirmed and TMO sets a firm floor.
• Exporters in Türkiye: Limit aggressive forward sales until the TMO price is official and early field damage reports are in. Prioritise flexible commitments and optional volumes over fixed-price, long-tenor contracts.
• Industry users (bakeries, cereal, confectionery): Hedge a baseline share of 2026/27 coverage now but retain room to average up or down as clarity on the harvest emerges next week.

3-Day Directional Price Indication

• Turkey (Malatya, FOB sultanas): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR, with bids supported by expected TMO floor and weather risk.
• Northwest Europe (Dordrecht/Hamburg FCA): Mild upward bias as importers show selective restocking interest ahead of TMO’s announcement.
• India (New Delhi FOB raisins): Largely steady in EUR, acting as a competitive but secondary origin while markets focus on Turkish developments.