Rape Market Analysis: Volatility Returns as EU Crop Prospects Adjust and Global Oilseed Dynamics Shift

The European rapeseed market has seen renewed volatility in the last week, with prices on Euronext (MATIF) declining sharply midweek before stabilising. The August contract fell by 9 EUR to 472.50 EUR/t on Thursday, following a 5 EUR drop the previous day. This correction comes as the European Commission revised its EU rapeseed production forecast downward by 100,000 tons to 18.8 million tons.

Despite the cut, this figure still stands well above last year’s harvest of 16.7 million tons, providing a buffer to supply concerns. Meanwhile, international oilseed markets are being shaped by trade policy uncertainty and weather-driven planting progress, particularly in North America, where rapid canola sowing in Canada and robust soybean planting in the U.S. are influencing sentiment.

The canola market in Canada mirrored rapeseed’s volatility, with a brief dip followed by a modest recovery, as traders warn that prices must remain attractive to incentivise planting and avoid jeopardising supply for 2025/26.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange	Contract	Latest Close	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 25	472.50	-14.00	EUR/t	Bearish
Euronext (MATIF)	Nov 25	477.75	–	EUR/t	Neutral
ICE Canada	Jul 25	719.80	+3.90	CAD/t	Stabilizing
ICE Canada	Nov 25	691.80	+5.50	CAD/t	Mildly Bullish

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price	Currency/kg
France	Standard	Paris	FOB	0.54	EUR
Ukraine	42% min oil, 98% purity	Kyiv	FCA	0.49	EUR
Ukraine	42% min oil, 98% purity	Odesa	FCA	0.51	EUR

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• EU Crop Outlook: The European Commission trimmed its 2025 EU rapeseed crop forecast by 100,000 t to 18.8 million t, still well above last year’s 16.7 million t. This supports a broadly comfortable supply outlook but signals some risk from weather or yield issues.
• Canadian Planting: Canola sowing is progressing rapidly. Canadian prices rebounded as traders warn that a sharper price drop could threaten 2025/26 supply by discouraging planting.
• Global Oilseed Competition: Malaysian palm oil futures have rallied on strong Chinese demand and export activity, but profit-taking has emerged. Soybean markets remain volatile amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and brisk U.S. planting progress.
• USDA Export Sales: Awaited data may provide direction, with expectations for moderate soybean and soy oil sales for both old and new crop years.

📊 Fundamentals & Stock Comparison

• EU rapeseed production (2025): 18.8 million t (down 100,000 t from prior forecast, up 2.1 million t y/y)
• Last year’s EU stocks: 16.7 million t
• Canadian canola supply: Stable but sensitive to further price drops
• Ukrainian rapeseed offers remain competitive, supporting regional supply
• Global oilseed stocks: Comfortable but tightening in some regions due to weather and trade policy

Country/Region	2024/25 Production Estimate (m t)	2023/24 Production (m t)	Change
EU	18.8	16.7	+2.1
Ukraine	~4.0	~4.2	-0.2
Canada (Canola)	~18.3	~18.7	-0.4

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Europe: Mixed weather, with some regions facing localised dryness that could limit yield gains. Rainfall in June will be critical for pod filling.
• Ukraine: Generally favourable, but some regions report patchy rainfall. No major threats currently.
• Canada: Good sowing conditions, but moisture deficits in western prairies could pose risks if dry pattern persists into June.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term pressure on Euronext rapeseed is likely to persist if EU weather remains benign and global oilseed supply is ample.
• Monitor Canadian weather closely; deterioration could quickly tighten global supply and support prices.
• Ukrainian offers remain competitive; watch for any logistical or export disruptions.
• Palm oil and soybean market volatility may spill over into rapeseed/canola pricing.
• Producers: Consider locking in prices on rebounds above 480 EUR/t for old crop; new crop sales may be deferred pending June weather.
• Buyers: Look for opportunities on further dips, but be alert to potential weather-driven reversals.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Forecast Range	Currency
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 25	468 – 478	EUR/t
ICE Canada	Jul 25	715 – 725	CAD/t
Ukraine (FOB/FCA)	Spot	0.48 – 0.52	EUR/kg

Key Takeaway: The rapeseed market faces near-term pressure from strong supply and competitive global oilseed markets, but weather risks and policy uncertainties could quickly shift sentiment. Stay vigilant for volatility as the critical pod-filling period approaches in Europe and North America.