📉 Rapeseed and Canola Face Heavy Losses – Soybean Market Reacts to Shifting Supply
📍 Oilseed markets remain highly volatile, with rapeseed and canola struggling under trade pressures and shifting global demand. While soybeans found some support, expectations for a record Brazilian export pace and ongoing adjustments in U.S. planting intentions continue to shape the market landscape.
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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,000.50 | €337.70/t | +10.75 | +1.08% |
| July 2025 | 1,015.00 | €342.90/t | +10.75 | +1.07% |
| November 2025 | 1,028.75 | €347.75/t | +10.50 | +1.03% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 471.00 | -6.50 | -1.35% |
| August 2025 | 459.25 | -6.25 | -1.34% |
| November 2025 | 461.25 | -5.50 | -1.18% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 552.90 | €385/t | -6.40 | -1.16% |
| May 2025 | 566.90 | €395/t | -6.40 | -1.13% |
| July 2025 | 580.00 | €403/t | -6.60 | -1.14% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Trade Tensions Keep Canola and Rapeseed Under Pressure 🌍📉
→ New tariff actions continue to disrupt trade flows, reshaping global supply chains.
→ China’s import restrictions on Canadian canola are hitting market sentiment hard. - Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Gains Momentum 🚢
→ Harvest progress remains ahead of schedule, fueling expectations for a strong export push.
→ Traders are closely monitoring how South American supply will impact global pricing trends. - Uncertainty in U.S. Planting Decisions 🌾
→ Initial expectations for expanded corn acreage are being reconsidered, as economic conditions shift.
→ Farmers may now favor soybeans over corn due to changing cost structures and export opportunities.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Rainfall Boosts Crop Expectations
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Soil moisture continues to improve, stabilizing yield forecasts.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Moderate, expected to remain steady.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Continued showers in key growing regions.
- 🚨 Impact: Likely to support late-season crops and improve harvest conditions.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Market sentiment remains cautious due to trade policy uncertainty.
- Resistance Level: €485/t
- Support Level: €465/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €470 – €480/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Market reacting to shifting supply conditions and ongoing export competition.
- Resistance Level: 1,015 ct/bu
- Support Level: 995 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,010 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Rapeseed and canola remain under pressure as trade disruptions continue.
- Soybeans show signs of stability but remain exposed to export-driven volatility.
- Uncertainty around planting intentions and global supply remains a major market driver.
🔮 Market remains highly reactive – focus on upcoming trade negotiations and planting forecasts.