📉 Rapeseed and Canola Plummet as China Imposes 100% Tariffs on Canadian Imports
A wave of selling pressure swept through global oilseed markets, dragging rapeseed and canola prices sharply lower. China’s latest move in the trade war sent shockwaves through the industry, forcing buyers to rethink supply chains. Meanwhile, soybeans attempted a recovery but remained under pressure from aggressive Brazilian exports. Markets are now bracing for the next big shift as geopolitical tensions and supply adjustments continue to unfold.
📍 Euronext rapeseed futures faced heavy losses on Monday, with the May contract dropping €14 to €481.75/t, extending the recent downtrend. CBoT soybeans also weakened, with the May contract falling 11 ct to 1,014 ct/bu (€363/t). Canola in Winnipeg suffered its largest single-day loss in months, with the May contract collapsing by 40.00 CAD to 605.00 CAD/t (€419/t), following China’s 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed products.
📍 The move caused a sharp sell-off in canola, with prices plunging 6–7% in a single day. European rapeseed and U.S. soybeans also came under pressure, while Chinese rapeseed meal and oil prices surged due to expected supply shortages.
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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,014.00 | €363/t | -11.00 | -1.07% |
| July 2025 | 1,028.50 | €368/t | -10.75 | -1.03% |
| November 2025 | 1,041.75 | €373/t | -10.50 | -1.00% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 481.75 | -14.00 | -2.82% |
| August 2025 | 467.50 | -9.50 | -2.00% |
| November 2025 | 469.75 | -8.75 | -1.83% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 591.00 | €409/t | -40.10 | -6.79% |
| May 2025 | 605.00 | €419/t | -40.00 | -6.61% |
| July 2025 | 617.80 | €428/t | -36.10 | -5.84% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- China Imposes 100% Tariffs on Canadian Canola Imports 🇨🇳📉
→ China banned rapeseed oil and meal imports from Canada, triggering a sharp price collapse.
→ Chinese rapeseed meal futures surged 6% to 2,611 Yuan/t, while rapeseed oil futures jumped 5.2% to 9,213 Yuan/t.
→ Canadian exports of rapeseed oil, meal, and peas to China were worth $1 billion last year, now at serious risk. - China Seeking Alternative Rapeseed Suppliers 🌎
→ Russia and the EU are emerging as potential new suppliers.
→ Russia exported 619,000 tons of rapeseed oil to China in the first five months of 2024/25 (+3%), while rapeseed meal shipments surged to 258,000 tons (90% of total Russian exports). - Brazil’s Soybean Harvest and Exports Accelerate 🚢
→ Brazil has harvested 61% of its soybean crop, up from 55% last year.
→ March soybean exports are projected to reach 14.8 MMT (+1.25 MMT vs. March 2024).
→ Full-year exports are expected to hit a record 110 MMT, +13 MMT vs. 2024. - China Strengthens Agricultural Ties with Brazil 🇧🇷🤝
→ Brazil ramps up agricultural exports to China amid worsening U.S.-China trade tensions.
→ China aims to reduce reliance on U.S. soybeans, boosting Brazilian purchases.
→ Brazilian soybean premiums over Chicago futures surged 70% this week to 85 ct/bu at Paranagua – highest since 2022.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Continued Rain Supports Crop Outlook
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Soil moisture improving, benefiting late-season crops.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 22–30°C, moderate.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Frequent showers expected across Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe.
- 🚨 Impact: Could stabilize soybean yields and support late-season growth.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Trade war uncertainty and weaker canola prices could limit upside.
- Resistance Level: €490/t
- Support Level: €470/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €475 – €485/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Strong Brazilian exports may cap further gains, but technical support could offer stabilization.
- Resistance Level: 1,030 ct/bu
- Support Level: 995 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,020 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Rapeseed and Canola collapsed as China imposed 100% tariffs on Canadian imports.
- China is actively shifting towards Russian and EU suppliers, reducing demand for North American rapeseed.
- Brazil’s soybean exports are accelerating, with record shipment expectations for March.
🔮 Market remains volatile – focus on South American supply, U.S.-China trade tensions, and European rapeseed demand.
