Rapeseed and Canola Under Pressure While Soybeans Attempt a Recovery

📉 Rapeseed and Canola Under Pressure While Soybeans Attempt a Recovery

📍 Oilseed markets remain in flux, as rapeseed and canola futures struggle under trade uncertainty, while soybeans attempt a rebound amid shifting supply dynamics. Despite the ongoing volatility, traders are watching closely for new signals on demand and global trade policies.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends

🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price (ct/bu)	💶 Converted Price (EUR/t)	📉 Change	📊 %
May 2025	1,007.25	€340.52/t	+6.75	+0.67%
July 2025	1,022.25	€345.23/t	+6.75	+0.66%
November 2025	1,012.50	€342.10/t	+6.00	+0.60%

📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price (EUR/t)	📉 Change	📊 %
May 2025	473.50	-6.50	-1.35%
August 2025	459.50	-6.25	-1.34%
November 2025	461.50	-5.50	-1.18%

📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures

📅 Contract	💰 Closing Price (CAD/t)	💶 Converted Price (EUR/t)	📉 Change	📊 %
March 2025	559.30	€389/t	-17.60	-3.15%
May 2025	573.30	€398/t	-17.60	-3.07%
July 2025	586.60	€407/t	-16.70	-2.85%

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🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

📌 Key Market Developments

• Trade Policies Continue to Reshape Supply Chains 🌍
  → Shifts in global demand and supply adjustments are keeping markets on edge.
  → Traders are closely monitoring how major exporters reposition their shipments.
• Soybean Markets React to Supply Adjustments 🚢
  → Harvest progress and export figures continue to influence price action.
  → Market participants are watching for signs of long-term demand shifts.
• Rapeseed and Canola Face Further Price Pressures 📉
  → Weaker demand outlook and trade-related disruptions are adding to uncertainty.
  → Volatility remains high, with no clear direction emerging yet.

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⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast

🇦🇷 Argentina: Rainfall Supports Crop Outlook

📍 Current Conditions:
→ Soil moisture improving, helping stabilize yield expectations.

📆 14-Day Outlook:

• 🌡️ Temperatures: Moderate and stable.
• 🌧️ Rainfall: Expected to continue, supporting crop conditions.
• 🚨 Impact: Expected to help preserve yield potential and balance supply.

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🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days

📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)

• Trend: Ongoing weakness due to market instability and shifting trade flows.
• Resistance Level: €485/t
• Support Level: €465/t
• 📊 Expected Range: €470 – €480/t

📉 Soybeans (CBoT)

• Trend: Market sentiment remains fragile despite slight price gains.
• Resistance Level: 1,015 ct/bu
• Support Level: 995 ct/bu
• 📊 Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,010 ct/bu

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📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📅 Season	🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT)	📉 Change
2021/22	311.5	–
2022/23	301.0	-10.5 MMT
2023/24	295.8	-5.2 MMT
2024/25	290.3	-5.5 MMT

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🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations

📉 Market Insights:

• Rapeseed and canola continue to struggle amid weak demand and shifting global trade.
• Soybeans attempt a rebound, but overall sentiment remains cautious.
• Market uncertainty remains high, with traders looking for clearer signals.

🔮 Market focus remains on supply and demand adjustments, along with upcoming trade policy changes.