📉 Rapeseed Falls Below €500 – Canola Rebounds Slightly, Soybeans Recover
📍 Euronext rapeseed futures extended their losses on Wednesday, with the May contract dropping €11.50 to €499.50/t, marking a two-month low. The sharp decline was fueled by fund selling and overall commodity weakness, although some analysts see the market as oversold. Meanwhile, CBoT soybeans rebounded, with the May contract gaining 12.75 ct to 1,011.75 ct/bu (€344/t), while Canola in Winnipeg recovered slightly, amid speculation that U.S. tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil may be short-lived or reduced.
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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,011.75 | €344/t | +12.75 | +1.28% |
| July 2025 | 1,026.50 | €349/t | +13.50 | +1.33% |
| November 2025 | 1,039.75 | €354/t | +13.50 | +1.32% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 499.50 | -11.50 | -2.25% |
| August 2025 | 479.25 | -5.50 | -1.13% |
| November 2025 | 484.75 | -2.50 | -0.51% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 620.70 | €423/t | +2.20 | +0.35% |
| May 2025 | 634.60 | €432/t | +2.10 | +0.33% |
| July 2025 | 644.20 | €439/t | +2.00 | +0.31% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- Euronext Rapeseed Falls Below €500 for the First Time in 3.5 Months 📉
→ The May contract closed below the €500 mark, signaling a bearish trend.
→ Traders see rapeseed as oversold, with potential for stabilization as palm oil and canola markets recover. - Canola Recovers Slightly on Hopes of Reduced U.S. Tariffs 🇺🇸📈
→ ICE Canola futures rebounded, driven by optimism that U.S. tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil may not last long or could be reduced.
→ May Canola closed at 634.60 CAD/t (€432/t), up 2.10 CAD. - Palm Oil Rebounds After Consecutive Losses 🌿
→ Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Wednesday after two days of declines.
→ Supported by rising soybean oil prices in Chicago, traders are awaiting new supply data from Malaysia’s MPOB next Monday. - Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate Lowered by Celeres 🌱
→ Consulting firm Celeres cut its 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 2.4 MMT to 171.6 MMT.
→ Despite the reduction, Brazil is still expected to export 107 MMT, up from 98.8 MMT last year.
→ Domestic soybean crushing is forecast to rise from 54 MMT to 56.5 MMT. - Funds Expected to Reduce Long Positions in Rapeseed 📉
→ Financial investors at Euronext increased net-long positions from 58,105 to 63,178 contracts last week.
→ Given the sharp sell-off, net-long positions could decline significantly in the coming days. - USDA Weekly Export Report Due Today 🚢
→ Expected soybean sales for the week ending February 27:- Old crop: 300,000 – 550,000 t
- New crop: 0 – 50,000 t
→ Soybean meal sales expected at 150,000 – 420,000 t, soybean oil at 20,000 – 45,000 t.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Weather Improvements Support Crop Outlook
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Soil moisture improving in key growing areas.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: 22–30°C, slightly below normal.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Continued showers expected across Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe.
- 🚨 Impact: Favorable for late-season soybean growth and yield potential.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Still under pressure, but may stabilize if canola and palm oil sustain gains.
- Resistance Level: €510/t
- Support Level: €490/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €495 – €505/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Moderate recovery likely, driven by fund positioning and technical support levels.
- Resistance Level: 1,025 ct/bu
- Support Level: 995 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Rapeseed fell below €500 for the first time in months, but downside may be limited.
- Canola rebounded slightly on hopes of softened U.S. tariffs.
- Palm oil and soybean oil demand are key factors to watch.
🔮 Market remains volatile – focus on South American crop conditions and potential shifts in U.S. trade policy.
