Global rapeseed trade is set to rise 8% in 2026/27 as palm and soy oil exports tighten. MATIF firm, Black Sea logistics fragile, Ukrainian prices discount EU.
Prices
European rapeseed futures remain well supported. Euronext (MATIF) November 2026 rapeseed is trading around EUR 552/t, with the nearby curve broadly flat out to May 2027 and only a modest discount towards the 2027/28 contracts around EUR 520–526/t, signalling a structurally firm but not explosive market.
Physical indications confirm this firmness. EU spot quotations for rapeseed in Germany are near EUR 515–554/t for early September, up roughly 3–4% month-on-month. Ukrainian offers for conventional rapeseed stand significantly below EU values: recent bids in Odesa are about EUR 0.47/kg CPT (≈ EUR 470/t), with FCA Kyiv around EUR 0.46–0.48/kg, leaving a discount of roughly 10–15% to MATIF-linked EU prices as exporters price in higher logistics and war risk.
ICE canola futures in Canada have also firmed modestly, reflecting solid crush margins and export prospects. With MATIF near EUR 550/t and Black Sea DAP values reported in the low–mid EUR 530s/t, the international rapeseed market is currently trading in the upper half of its post-2021 range, but below war-time extremes.
Supply & Demand
Global vegetable oil trade is becoming structurally tighter. Only about 59% of global vegetable oil consumption will be traded in 2026/27, down from an average 62% in the past decade. The key drag is palm oil: its traded share of global palm oil use has fallen from nearly 75% in 2017/18 to below 60%, as Indonesia in particular diverts more supplies into domestic biodiesel, curbing export availability.
Palm oil exports are now some 6.3 million tonnes below their 2018/19 peak, with USDA expecting a further 2% drop in 2026/27 even as global production stays close to record levels. Soy oil tells a similar story: robust soybean crops do not translate into strong export growth, with total soy oil and equivalents projected to rise only 1% in trade terms as the US and Brazil channel more oil into biofuel.
Against this backdrop, smaller oils are carrying all of the incremental growth in world exports. Total vegetable oil trade (including oil-equivalent seed shipments) is forecast to reach about 141 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 2% year-on-year – and this entire increase comes from rapeseed and sunflower. Together they account for about one quarter of global vegetable oil use, but effectively provide all the trade growth, underscoring their importance for import-dependent buyers.
Rapeseed Fundamentals
Rapeseed is the third most-consumed vegetable oil globally, and unlike palm and soy, it has broadly maintained its share of world oil use in recent years. This stability is anchored in production growth in Canada and Russia and steady demand from biodiesel, especially in Europe where around 80% of rapeseed use is linked to fuel blending mandates.
USDA projects global rapeseed exports to rise by about 8% in 2026/27. Canada, Russia, Ukraine and Australia are expected to drive this growth, supplying increased volumes of both seed and oil. However, the increase is skewed towards oil: rapeseed seed exports are forecast to grow only slightly, from roughly 19.35 to 19.94 million tonnes, while rapeseed oil exports jump from 7.84 to 8.89 million tonnes. This reflects ongoing investments in crushing capacity in key origins and strong demand for low-carbon diesel feedstocks.
On the demand side, the largest import gains are anticipated in the US and China. For both, rapeseed oil offers a flexible tool to diversify away from palm and to meet tightening fuel or food oil specifications. Within the EU, the 2026 crop estimate has recently been trimmed to about 19.4 million tonnes due to lower area and earlier dry conditions, implying slightly tighter regional balances and continued need for imports from the Black Sea and Canada.
Black Sea & Sunflower Linkages
Sunflower oil is also staging a strong comeback. Larger sunflowerseed harvests in Ukraine and Russia, supported by significant acreage expansion after two weak years, are expected to lift sunflower oil exports by about 15% in 2026/27. Global sunflower oil trade is set to rise from around 13.5 to nearly 16 million tonnes, with Russia and Ukraine together adding more than 1.8 million tonnes of export capacity. India and China are the main growth markets.
However, the ability of Black Sea exporters to realise this potential remains uncertain. Ongoing hostilities and port disruptions in the Black Sea, including recent attacks on terminals and oil infrastructure, are hampering outbound flows and raising freight and insurance costs. For rapeseed and sunflower alike, this translates into a persistent risk premium on European prices and a structural discount on Ukrainian and, to a lesser extent, Russian FOB/CPT values.
Execution of new-crop rapeseed from Russia and the wider Black Sea has already proven challenging, and EU crushers remain sensitive to any additional logistics shocks, especially on inland waterways and Danube routes. As long as Black Sea supply is “available but hard to ship”, European rapeseed and oil prices are likely to remain supported even in a globally comfortable oilseed balance.
Weather & Crop Conditions
Weather is adding a layer of uncertainty for the next rapeseed cycle. In southern Ukraine, unusually dry conditions have already posed risks to winter rapeseed sowing, delaying fieldwork and raising concerns about establishment quality. Similar dryness episodes earlier in the 2026 growing season trimmed EU yield potential, contributing to cuts in official crop estimates.
Elsewhere in Europe, recent EU monitoring points to more mixed conditions: after a strong start in autumn, parts of central and eastern Europe have faced cool and wet spells that slowed field operations and early development of oilseeds, though improved moisture may aid later growth. For now, global rapeseed fundamentals remain broadly balanced, but any further weather stress on 2026/27 sowings in the Black Sea or EU could quickly tighten the outlook.
Trading Outlook
- Producers (EU & Black Sea): With MATIF near EUR 550/t and local bids at a discount but rising, consider layering in forward sales on price rallies, especially where logistics are secure. In high-risk Black Sea areas, keep some unpriced volume to capture potential basis improvements if export channels normalise.
- Crushers: Maintain diversified origination between EU, Canada and Black Sea to mitigate logistics and policy risk. Current Ukrainian discounts around 10–15% vs MATIF offer attractive crush margins but require robust freight and insurance cover; hedge price risk via futures while keeping basis exposure flexible.
- Importers (US, China, non-EU): Given structurally tighter palm and soy oil trade, secure a baseline of rapeseed oil coverage for 2026/27 early, especially for Q4 2026–Q1 2027, while leaving some optionality to switch into sunflower oil should Black Sea execution improve and discounts widen.
3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- MATIF rapeseed (Nov 2026): Sideways to slightly firmer around EUR 545–560/t, supported by tight vegoil trade and Black Sea risk, but capped by good overall oilseed availability.
- Black Sea CPT/FOB rapeseed (Ukraine): Mildly firmer, with CPT Odesa/plant expected in the EUR 470–490/t range as processors and exporters compete for seed while logistics remain complex.
- EU physical rapeseed (Germany/France): Stable to slightly higher, clustering around EUR 520–560/t as crushers maintain coverage and global vegoil markets monitor weather and Black Sea developments.