Rapeseed Market Analysis: Prices Hold Steady Amid Weather Risks and Ample Supplies

The global rapeseed market is currently navigating a phase of relative price stability, with Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed futures showing little movement and physical market prices in France and Ukraine holding steady. Despite the lack of dramatic price shifts, the market is far from complacent. Traders are closely monitoring weather developments across Europe and the Black Sea region, as persistent dryness in key growing areas could pose risks to the upcoming harvest. Meanwhile, ample old-crop stocks and robust global supplies are keeping a lid on any significant upward momentum.

On the demand side, steady offtake from crushers and the biofuel sector continues to support the market, but the absence of new bullish catalysts has kept speculative interest subdued. External influences, including fluctuating crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea, add to the market’s complexity.

As the Northern Hemisphere’s harvest approaches, all eyes are on yield prospects and quality reports, which could quickly shift the current equilibrium. In this environment, both producers and buyers are advised to remain vigilant and responsive to emerging weather and policy signals, as any surprises could trigger rapid price adjustments in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Market	Contract/Spec	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 25	481.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	Nov 25	485.25 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral
ICE Canada (Canola)	Jul 25	715.90 CAD/t	-2.28%	Bearish
ICE Canada (Canola)	Nov 25	686.30 CAD/t	-1.17%	Bearish
Physical (France, Paris, FOB)	Rape seeds	0.54 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
Physical (Ukraine, Kyiv, FCA)	Rape seeds 42% min oil, 98% purity	0.49 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable
Physical (Ukraine, Odesa, FCA)	Rape seeds 42% min oil, 98% purity	0.51 EUR/kg	0.00%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• European Union: The EU remains the world’s largest rapeseed producer, with 2025/26 output forecasts stable. However, local dryness in France and Germany could trim yields if rains do not materialise in June.
• Ukraine: Export flows remain robust despite the ongoing conflict, with logistics routes adapting to changing circumstances. Ukrainian new-crop offers are competitive, supporting EU crusher margins.
• Canada: Canola planting is nearly complete. Early dryness in the Prairies is a concern, but recent showers have improved prospects. ICE canola futures are under pressure from large old-crop stocks and sluggish export demand.
• China: Remains a key importer but has slowed purchases as domestic stocks are ample and alternative oils remain competitively priced.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & EU Reports: Recent USDA and EU Commission reports indicate global rapeseed stocks are comfortable, but weather risks could alter the outlook rapidly.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net neutral to slightly short on Euronext rapeseed, reflecting a lack of conviction in either direction.
• Biofuel Demand: Steady demand from EU biodiesel producers provides a price floor, with no major policy changes expected in the short term.
• Currency & Energy: A firmer euro and weaker crude oil have capped rallies, but volatility could return if macroeconomic conditions shift.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Western Europe: Dry conditions persist in northern France and western Germany. Scattered showers are forecast over the next 3 days, but rainfall totals may be insufficient to fully alleviate moisture deficits.
• Ukraine: Generally favourable weather, but some localised dryness in the south. No major frost or heat events are expected in the immediate term.
• Canada: The Prairie region has seen beneficial rains, but the situation remains precarious with above-average temperatures forecast for the next week.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Change YoY
EU	19.5	3.0	-2%
Canada	18.8	2.5	+1%
Ukraine	4.2	0.6	+3%
China (imports)	n/a	1.8	-5%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor European weather closely; persistent dryness could spark a rally if yield concerns intensify.
• Physical buyers should consider forward coverage, especially for delivery in Q3-Q4, to hedge against potential weather-driven volatility.
• Producers in Ukraine and the EU are advised to take advantage of current stable prices for incremental sales.
• Watch for shifts in crude oil and currency markets, as these will influence rapeseed and canola pricing indirectly.
• Speculators: Maintain a neutral stance; wait for clearer weather or demand signals before taking significant positions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price	Forecast Range	Direction
Euronext (MATIF) Aug 25	481.50 EUR/t	478 – 485 EUR/t	Sideways/Weak
ICE Canola Jul 25	715.90 CAD/t	710 – 725 CAD/t	Slightly Lower
Physical (Paris, FOB)	0.54 EUR/kg	0.53 – 0.55 EUR/kg	Stable
Physical (UA, FCA)	0.49–0.51 EUR/kg	0.48 – 0.52 EUR/kg	Stable