Rapeseed Market Analysis: Stable Prices Amid Supply Headwinds and Shifting Demand

The rapeseed market is holding a cautious tone as we move deeper into the summer of 2025, with Euronext (MATIF) futures showing little change and physical spot prices in Europe and the Black Sea remaining steady or slightly weaker. While European supply chains appear well stocked—and French offers sit flat, with only minor discounts surfacing from Ukrainian origins—market participants remain closely attuned to weather risks across Western Europe and the Black Sea region.

Global rapeseed trade dynamics are shifting in an environment of high stocks, seasonally strong European demand, and emerging concerns over yield potential in the next harvest cycle. Meanwhile, volatility in competing oilseed markets and an eye on crush margins are keeping rapeseed prices mostly range-bound. This climate requires agile trading and vigilant monitoring of fundamentals, as weather and export flows will set the tone for late summer and harvest-period direction. The ICE Canola market, for its part, is also drifting with a slightly softer bias, reflecting similar themes of ample supply and intra-market pressures across the oilseed complex.

📈 Rapeseed & Canola Prices on Key Exchanges

Exchange/Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext Aug 25	467.00	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext Nov 25	486.50	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
ICE Canola Nov 25	695.90	-0.70%	CAD/t	Bearish
ICE Canola Jan 26	705.80	-0.65%	CAD/t	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 📉 European rapeseed stocks remain comfortable, pressuring spot and forward prices, though harvest progress and yield reports are closely watched.
• 🔄 Ukrainian spot prices have slipped by €2/t week-on-week due to relatively abundant supply and subdued Black Sea shipping activity.
• 📦 Global trade flows are stable; EU imports from Ukraine are ongoing but at a slightly reduced pace compared to last year.
• 🇨🇦 Canola production in Canada is expected to recover after drought setbacks, weighing on ICE futures and indirectly influencing the Atlantic market.
• 🌏 Asian demand for vegetable oils remains firm, supporting the broader oilseed complex and limiting downside for European rapeseed.

📊 Physical Market Prices (Spot, Europe & Black Sea)

Origin	Location	Type/Purity	Delivery	Latest Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change
France	Paris	Std	FOB	0.55	0.00
Ukraine	Kyiv	42% min oil, 98%	FCA	0.53	-0.02
Ukraine	Odesa	42% min oil, 98%	FCA	0.54	-0.02

📌 Market Fundamentals & External Influences

• 📑 USDA Reports: Recent estimates maintain a solid output outlook for the EU, with expected production rebounding in Germany and France after last year’s weather hit. However, continued dryness in the southern and eastern EU may limit gains.
• 🌾 Acreage Outlook: EU rapeseed area sown is up 2% year-on-year, but uncertain French yield prospects and persistent Black Sea region dryness keep traders wary.
• 💼 Speculative Positioning: Hedge funds remain mostly neutral, with open interest unchanged across Euronext contracts—reflecting low conviction and a wait-and-see approach to peak yield reports.
• ⚡️ Energy and Currency Moves: Crude oil strength and a weaker euro offer mild support to rapeseed values, helping counterbalance negative signals from canola and soy.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• France & Germany: Mixed weather, adequate rainfall boosts establishment, but heat spells expected in August could stress late-planted crops.
• Ukraine: Lingering dryness in the eastern belt, but forecasts suggest possible showers; yield risks persist if rains do not materialise soon.
• Canada: Cooler, wetter pattern developing over Prairies, improving canola outlook after June’s drought risk.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	YoY Change (%)
EU-27	19.5	3.6	+2
Ukraine	3.7	0.6	+4
Canada	18.2	2.9	+6
Australia	6.1	1.2	-10

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• • Maintain neutral-to-cautious positions—spot prices are unlikely to break out without a major weather or policy shock.
• • Monitor Black Sea weather—further dryness could spark a risk premium for Q4 delivery.
• • Selling into modest rallies (near resistance ~€490-495/t MATIF Nov 25) is advised as long as supply flows remain comfortable.
• • Keep positions light ahead of EU/Ukraine harvest conclusion data and late-summer weather reports.
• • Watch Canadian canola developments—significant rebounds could soften EU values further.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price	Forecast Range	Direction
Euronext (MATIF) Nov 25	486.50 EUR/t	484 – 489	Stable
ICE Canola Nov 25	695.90 CAD/t	693 – 698	Soft/Sideways
France FOB Physical	0.55 EUR/kg	0.54 – 0.56	Stable
Ukraine FCA Physical	0.53-0.54 EUR/kg	0.52 – 0.54	Soft