Rapeseed Market Analysis: Weather Risks and Sideways Trends Shape Outlook

The rapeseed market continues to display a lack of clear direction, with sideways trading dominating sentiment as of late May 2025. Market participants are closely monitoring weather developments across key European growing regions, as persistent dryness, especially in northern Germany, poses a risk to yield expectations.

The latest MARS report has already trimmed EU-wide yield forecasts, with Germany’s average now at 3.60 t/ha, down from 3.67 t/ha. Despite diplomatic progress in the EU–US trade dispute, which has temporarily lifted the threat of US tariffs on EU goods, the rapeseed market has yet to react meaningfully. The absence of trading cues from the US (due to a holiday closure at the CBOT) has further contributed to the subdued and directionless mood.

With soil moisture at critically low levels in several regions and the weather outlook remaining a pivotal factor, any further deterioration could quickly turn sentiment bullish. For now, however, the market remains in a holding pattern, with participants advised to watch weather models and soil moisture data closely for early signs of a breakout.

📈 Prices

Contract	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Change	Converted (USD/t)	Sentiment
Euronext Aug 25	488.50	±0.00	~529.33	Neutral/Sideways

Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date
Ukraine	Kyiv (FCA)	FCA	0.49	0.49	2025-05-23
Ukraine	Odesa (FCA)	FCA	0.51	0.51	2025-05-23
France	Paris (FOB)	FOB	0.54	0.54	2025-05-22

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU yield forecast cut: MARS now expects 3.17 t/ha (down from 3.20 t/ha); Germany at 3.60 t/ha (was 3.67 t/ha).
• Critical dryness: Northern Germany has received only one-third of its typical rainfall, raising concerns over soil moisture and potential crop stress.
• Trade policy: Suspension of US tariffs on EU goods until July 9 removes the immediate risk of retaliatory measures impacting rapeseed flows.
• Global context: No significant changes in global rapeseed inventories reported; focus remains on EU weather and potential Canadian crop developments.

📊 Fundamentals

• Market activity was subdued due to the US holiday (CBOT closed), limiting international price signals.
• Speculative positioning: Funds remain largely neutral, awaiting clearer weather-driven cues.
• Physical market stable: Ukrainian and French offers unchanged, reflecting a wait-and-see approach.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

Region	Weather	Comment
Northern Germany	Fair, scattered showers, 25°C	Critical rainfall deficit, soil moisture is low
Northern France	Dry, 27°C	Good conditions, but dryness is increasing
Poland	Unsettled, 23°C	Mixed conditions, no acute risk yet

• Forecast (next 3 days): Continued above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall in Germany and France; risk of further soil moisture depletion if rains do not materialise.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• EU: Output outlook slightly reduced; weather remains the key unknown.
• Canada: Planting progressing on schedule, but market eyes weather risks in June/July.
• Ukraine: Stable offers, no new crop stress reported.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect sideways trading in the near term, with low volatility.
• Monitor soil moisture and weather models closely—sustained dryness could trigger bullish moves in July.
• Consider long positions if the weather remains dry into July, particularly in Germany and France.
• Physical buyers may secure coverage at current prices, given stable offers and the potential for weather-driven price spikes.
• Risk management: Employ tight stops on speculative trades given the lack of a clear trend.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Indicative)

Exchange/Location	Product	Current Price	Forecast Range (3 days)	Tendency
Euronext (Aug 25)	Rapeseed	488.50 EUR/t	487 – 492 EUR/t	Sideways
Kyiv (FCA)	Rapeseed	0.49 EUR/kg	0.48 – 0.51 EUR/kg	Stable
Paris (FOB)	Rapeseed	0.54 EUR/kg	0.53 – 0.56 EUR/kg	Sideways/Bullish on dryness

Key Takeaway: The rapeseed market is finely balanced, with weather the primary swing factor. Any further dryness could shift the market from neutral to bullish, so vigilance is warranted.