Rapeseed Market Climbs: Supported by Global Oilseed Strength and Tightening Supplies

The rapeseed market is currently experiencing a wave of bullish sentiment, driven by a complex mix of fundamentals, global oilseed pricing momentum, and evolving supply-demand dynamics. Over the past week, both European (Euronext MATIF) and Canadian (ICE) futures for rapeseed and canola have risen sharply, with ICE canola contracts hitting 19-month highs. This strength is underpinned by higher international soybean oil prices, tightening global oilseed inventories, and robust demand for vegetable oils in both the food and renewable energy sectors.

In France, physical rapeseed offers have stabilised—reflecting high market confidence and consistent price levels—while Ukrainian origins show a slight firming, suggesting active cross-border trade and persistent import interest from EU crushers. Meanwhile, a favourable weather outlook in Western Europe contrasts with weather-related yield challenges reported in Canada and parts of Eastern Europe, contributing to ongoing volatility in international pricing. The U.S. soybean oil complex continues to influence the direction of canola/rapeseed prices, particularly with prospects for reduced U.S. exports and heightened North American processing margins. With open interest across major futures exchanges remaining elevated and speculative funds maintaining a moderately long stance, all eyes are on the coming weeks’ weather and acreage reports for further market direction.

📈 Prices: Rapeseed & Canola Futures

Exchange	Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext MATIF	Aug 25	489.00 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral/Stable
Euronext MATIF	Nov 25	495.75 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral/Stable
Euronext MATIF	Feb 26	496.50 EUR/t	0.00%	Neutral/Stable
ICE Canada	Jul 25	743.10 CAD/t	+1.63%	Bullish
ICE Canada	Nov 25	735.90 CAD/t	+1.73%	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• EU and Black Sea: Steady French FOB prices (0.54 EUR/kg) and rising Ukrainian FCA prices in Odesa (up to 0.51 EUR/kg) suggest firm underlying demand from European crushers.
• Canada: Canadian canola futures at 19-month highs signal tightening supplies and strong competition for export demand, especially amid declining U.S. soybean oil shipments and demand from U.S. biofuels.
• Global Inventories: Analysts are tracking lower global oilseed stocks, particularly in Canada and Northern Europe, which is supporting elevated prices and robust import requirements in the EU.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA & EU Crop Reports: Recent USDA and EU crop progress reports highlight variable conditions in Europe (good in France, mixed in Eastern regions) and some yield concerns in Canada.
• Speculators: Managed money remains moderately long in both rapeseed and canola contracts, reflecting cautious optimism.
• Currency Markets: The relatively stable EUR and weakening Canadian dollar add modest support to European rapeseed versus Canadian canola exports.
• External Markets: U.S. soybean oil strength and robust palm oil export demand from Asia underpin oilseed complex gains, increasing competition and boosting values for rapeseed and canola.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Western Europe (France, Germany): Forecasts call for scattered showers and mild temperatures, highly favourable for flowering and pod-setting in rapeseed, reducing drought stress during grain fill.
• Ukraine & Southeast Europe: Mixed conditions with risk of heat waves into late June—heightening fears of localised yield loss.
• Canada: Some dryness reported in the Prairies, though recent rainfall in Alberta and Manitoba is seen providing moderate improvement. Continued monitoring is required as flowering approaches.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Region	2023/24 Output (est.)	Carryout Stocks
EU	19.2 Mt	2.7 Mt
Canada	17.6 Mt	1.3 Mt
Ukraine	4.3 Mt	0.6 Mt
China	14.7 Mt	3.1 Mt

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Bulls: Hold or add to long positions, given strong support from Canadian and U.S. oilseed complex and tight inventories.
• 📌 Bears: Watch for possible rain-induced yield improvements in Canada or Europe as triggers for profit-taking or short hedges.
• 📌 Physical Buyers: Secure forward cover—especially for old crop—before further price appreciation, but monitor harvest pace in France and Eastern Europe.
• 📌 Exporters: Exploit current premium for French rapeseed on FOB basis, but prepare for possible competition from improving Ukrainian supply.
• 📌 Key Risk: Weather stress in Canada/Eastern Europe; global macro environment supporting vegetable oil and biofuel demand.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Product	Current Close	3-Day Outlook	Sentiment
Euronext MATIF (Aug 25)	489.00 EUR/t	487-495 EUR/t	Steady/Higher
Euronext MATIF (Nov 25)	495.75 EUR/t	495-500 EUR/t	Bullish
ICE Canola (Jul 25)	743.10 CAD/t	745-755 CAD/t	Bullish
Physical FR FOB	0.54 EUR/kg	0.54-0.56 EUR/kg	Firm
Physical UA FCA (Odesa)	0.51 EUR/kg	0.50-0.52 EUR/kg	Firm