Rapeseed Market Dynamics: Stable Prices Amid Record Soybean Crops

The global rapeseed (rape) market enters mid-November with remarkable steadiness in benchmark exchange prices and physical offers, even as oilseed markets worldwide face shifting dynamics. Latest trading on Euronext (MATIF) reveals unbudging futures across 2026–2028, with May 2026 contracts closing at €479.50/t and outer contracts at €474.00/t. ICE Canola also displayed only mild gains, with active January 2026 up 0.54% to CAD 650.90/t. Meanwhile, Ukrainian physical rape offers have crept up €0.01/kg on both Odesa and Kyiv FCA delivery—grounded not just in local logistics but also in global oilseed flows and demand spectrum changes.

US government’s resumption of export reporting, following a protracted shutdown, has brought fresh focus to export sales data, especially for soy, which competes head-on with rape as a source of protein and oil. Brazil’s Conab foresees a record-beating 177.6 million ton soybean crop for 2025/26, boosting both export expectations and domestic crush demand on the back of rising biodiesel output and plant-based protein needs. In the vegetable oil complex, palm oil’s steady gains—despite record production from Malaysia and Indonesia—highlight ongoing demand and supply uncertainty. While rapeseed prices remain unperturbed, the confluence of bumper crops elsewhere and varying market fundamentals means industry players must watch developments closely for sudden shifts.

📈 Prices & Key Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Feb 26	€482.50/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	€479.50/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 26	€465.75/t	0.00%	Neutral
ICE CA Canola	Jan 26	CAD 650.90/t	+0.54%	Mildly Bullish

Spot & Physical Markets

Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (€/kg)	Change	Offer Link
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.60	+0.01	Offer
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.58	+0.01	Offer
France	Paris	FOB	0.55	0.00	Offer

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Export Sales Resume: USDA returned with export data after a 43-day shutdown, boosting transparency in oilseed trade. Recent data hints at steady soy exports and soymeal sales, indirectly keeping rape market confidence stable.
• Record Soybean Crops: Brazil expects 177.6 mln t soybeans in 2025/26—slightly lower than prior estimate but still a record, heralding strong global competition for rapeseed in oil and meal markets.
• Biodiesel Demand: Rising EU and Brazilian mandates are increasing in-country crush of rapeseed for oil and meal, providing a floor for prices.
• Global Oilseed Stocks: Palm oil inventories remain ample, with Malaysia and Indonesia both logging production growth (~11% YoY in Indonesia). This weighs on soy and rapeseed oils.
• Speculative Positioning: With futures volumes and open interest steady on MATIF, speculative funds remain cautious, possibly awaiting a catalyst from weather or macro developments.

📊 Global Fundamentals

Country	2024/25 Rapeseed Production (mln t)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mln t)	Notes
EU-27	19.7	2.1	Steady output, ample stocks
Canada	18.3	2.0	Stable, strong export pace
Ukraine	4.4	0.5	Good harvest, robust exports
Australia	6.1	0.6	Some weather risks, lower than last year
China	14.2	2.1	Steady demand, import needs

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• EU & Black Sea: Recent weather has generally supported overwintering rape, with moisture reserves above average in France and Germany, though some Ukrainian regions report excess rainfall causing local delays in autumn fieldwork.
• Canada: Post-harvest dry weather supports logistics; however, some regions watch for soil moisture deficits ahead of spring 2026 seeding.
• Australia: Mixed—minimal rain in west, timely showers in southeast. Production slightly below average but not alarming.
• Short-run risks: No major frost risk; mild La Niña effect could bring extra spring rainfall to Europe, aiding yield but raising fungal disease risk.

📌 Market Drivers & Speculation

• Oil Prices: Weak crude oil and strong currencies (Ringgit, Euro) limit oils rally, capping upside in rapeseed.
• Trade Flows: EU continues to pull imports from Ukraine and Australia, while China remains a key net importer.
• Biofuel Policy: Vigilance needed as any change in mandates could quickly tighten supply-demand balances.
• Fund Activity: Steady open interest but low volume points to a market awaiting fresh direction.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Risk/reward for new long positions modest, with price upside capped by record global soy and palm outputs.
• End-use buyers advised to incrementally cover autumn 2025/26 needs on flat or slight dips below €470/t MATIF.
• Ukrainian sellers can seek quick execution for FCA cargos, as Black Sea logistics remain competitive.
• Watch weather headlines for late-winter risks and signals from biofuel policy debates in EU/Brazil.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Contract	Trend	Forecast Price Range
Euronext (MATIF)	Feb 26	Sideways	€480–485/t
Euronext (MATIF)	May 26	Stable	€475–480/t
ICE CA Canola	Jan 26	Firm/Bullish	CAD 645–655/t