Rapeseed Market Rallies Amid Geopolitical Tensions – Strong Gains at Euronext Lead a Bullish Week

The rapeseed market has entered a phase of sharp upward momentum, marked by a fourth consecutive day of gains at Euronext and renewed interest from market participants. On Friday, the August front-month contract closed at EUR 505.25/t, securing a weekly gain of EUR 10.50. This surge follows rising concerns over global supply uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after recent US military actions in Iran. While related oilseed markets such as soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw moderate declines, the rapeseed complex continues to benefit from its relative tightness and risk premium.

Market fundamentals appear firm: Output concerns linger across Europe, while French and Ukrainian spot prices remain steady to higher. Industrial demand is robust, buoyed by biofuel mandates, while Australian and Canadian harvest prospects face mixed weather forecasts. Despite recent modest corrections in canola prices at ICE Canada, the underlying tone stays bullish. Market participants should stay alert: the current rally could sustain if adverse weather and geopolitical uncertainties persist. Up-to-date procurement, hedging, or speculative strategies may be warranted as volatility remains high.

📈 Prices

Euronext (MATIF) Rapeseed Futures – Closing Prices (20 June 2025)

Contract	Last Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change (EUR)	Market Sentiment
Aug 25	505.25	+10.50	Bullish
Nov 25	512.00	n/a	Strong
Feb 26	514.25	n/a	Firm

ICE Canada Canola Futures – Closing Prices (20 June 2025)

Contract	Last Price (CAD/t)	Weekly Change (CAD)	Market Sentiment
Jul 25	743.60	-1.70	Neutral/Bearish
Nov 25	742.70	-1.30	Neutral
Jan 26	750.30	-2.00	Neutral

Current Physical Market Offers

Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change
UA	Odesa	42% min oil	98%	FCA	0.53	+0.02
UA	Kyiv	42% min oil	98%	FCA	0.51	+0.02
FR	Paris	–	–	FOB	0.54	0.00

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU rapeseed production is set for minor declines in 2025/26 due to weather-related yield concerns in France and Germany.
• Ukrainian exports continue to be strong, supporting EU crusher demand, though cross-border logistics face intermittent delays.
• Canadian canola is slightly pressured by higher ending stocks, but dry weather in Alberta and Saskatchewan could threaten output.
• Chinese rapeseed imports stable; local supply unchanged following weak spring sowings.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Geopolitical risk: US military activity in Iran increases fears of energy price shocks, boosting oilseed markets.
• Biofuel demand: EU biofuel mandates underpin strong rapeseed oil offtake.
• USDA reports: Current forecasts indicate static global ending stocks, with only marginal increases in Canada and Australia.
• Speculative position: Managed money net length expanded at Euronext as funds add exposure on tightness and weather risks.
• Currency: EUR weakened vs. USD, providing modest support for EU export competitiveness.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• France & Germany: Recent rainfall helped seed development, but dry heatwaves forecast in the next 7 days could stress pod fill.
• UK & Poland: Mostly favourable, yet anticipated June temperature spikes may trim yield potential locally.
• Ukraine: Variable rains in key oblasts; localised storms support filling, but dryness in south/central areas threatens southern yield potential.
• Canada: Persistent dryness in Alberta/Saskatchewan is a concern for canola germination and crop establishment if rains do not materialise.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (est. mil t)	2025/26 Outlook	Ending Stocks (mil t)
EU	21.1	↓ Slightly lower on yield	3.7
Canada	18.2	⚠ Weather risk	2.5
Ukraine	4.2	↔ Steady output	0.5
Australia	5.3	Lower acreage	1.0

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For crushers & end-users: Secure additional coverage as the market stays well-bid and volatility is elevated.
• For producers: Consider scaling up forward sales in strength, especially ahead of critical weather periods in July.
• For traders/speculators: Favour the long side while weather risk and Middle East geopolitical premium persist. Consider trailing stops on bullish positions.
• Watch for: Updates from USDA, EU MARS bulletins, and further geopolitical news – any escalation may quickly lift prices further.
• Downside risks: If timely rains arrive in Canada and Europe, rally could pause; monitor currency volatility for global competitiveness shifts.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Direction	Expected Range
Euronext (MATIF) Aug 25	Up	505 – 515 EUR/t
ICE Canada Jul 25	Sideways	740 – 750 CAD/t
Physical Offers (Ukraine, FCA)	Up	0.51 – 0.54 EUR/kg