Rapeseed Market Surges Amid Oilseed Rally and Solid Supply Outlook

The rapeseed market has experienced a notable upswing, with key European and North American futures posting strong gains in the first week of June 2025. Strength in the broader oilseed complex, primarily driven by recovering soybeans in Chicago and resilient crude oil prices, has spilt over into rapeseed markets. The Euronext (MATIF) August contract rose by €5 to €478.25/t, closely following bullish soy moves as July soybeans at CBOT increased by 7.25 cents to 1,040.75 ct/bu.

Support also stems from optimism that high-level talks between US and Chinese leaders may pave the way for renewed trade flows. Meanwhile, weather events such as wildfires in Canada have so far spared the country’s canola sowing, with most areas reporting favourable planting conditions except for some localised dryness.

Rapeseed spot prices in France (FOB Paris) and Ukraine (FCA Kyiv, Odesa) remain steady, reflecting strong demand and robust stock levels. The market is also monitoring speculative activity, with open interest numbers hinting at ongoing commercial engagement. Looking ahead, weather developments across Europe, Canada, and the Black Sea region will be decisive: persistent dryness could tighten new crop supply, while any easing in geopolitical tensions may further support export demand. Against this background, rapeseed remains a key beneficiary of the overall oilseed rally.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Aug 2025	478.25	+5.00	EUR/t	Bullish
Euronext (MATIF)	Nov 2025	483.50	0.00	EUR/t	Steady
ICE Canada	Jul 2025	698.70	+11.90	CAD/t	Bullish
ICE Canada	Nov 2025	680.20	+12.30	CAD/t	Bullish
Physical Market (FOB Paris)	N/A	0.54	0.00	EUR/kg	Stable
Physical Market (FCA Kyiv)	42% min oil	0.49	0.00	EUR/kg	Stable
Physical Market (FCA Odesa)	42% min oil	0.51	0.00	EUR/kg	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• European Union: Ample stocks and favourable planting progress reported. Early crop conditions in France and Germany are mostly positive, though pockets of dry weather persist in eastern Europe.
• Ukraine: Steady export pace as physical prices remain stable on FCA terms; competitive offers continue to underpin Black Sea shipments.
• Canada: Despite widespread wildfires, canola seeding is largely unaffected so far. Most regions have sufficient soil moisture, supporting yield potential, but the risk of localised dryness remains.
• Demand: Reflects ongoing strength in European crushers and biodiesel demand, with additional interest tied to China’s import program if Sino-US talks yield positive results.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & Crop Progress: Soybean market strength and hope for improved trade relations set a supportive tone for the entire oilseed complex.
• Speculative Positioning: Open interest on MATIF rapeseed contracts at notable levels (e.g., 66,655 for Aug 2025), suggesting active commercial participation.
• Global Inventories: EU and Canadian stocks are comfortable, but potential weather risks may alter the outlook.

☀️ Weather Watch

• Europe: Mixed outlook. Western and Central Europe benefit from mild temperatures and rain, supporting crops. Eastern regions (Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine) are at risk of localised dryness according to the latest satellite/newscast models.
• Canada: Cool and mostly moist; wildfires threaten localised disruption, but no major threat to the overall canola acreage observed.
• Black Sea: Variable to dry in southern Russia and Ukraine, with the risk of moisture deficit in June.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mt)
EU (incl. UK)	20.1	2.7
Canada	18.6	2.5
Ukraine	4.1	0.7
Australia	5.5	0.6
China (imports)	6.5	0.5

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For producers: Current bullish momentum provides attractive hedging opportunities for old and new crop. Consider pre-sale of 10-30% of expected harvest volumes.
• For traders: Leverage short-term rallies, watch for crude oil and soy trends as market signals. Monitor positions ahead of the upcoming USDA WASDE and EU crop bulletins.
• For end users: Secure physical coverage through summer; remain flexible in the fourth quarter, especially if weather risk in Canada and the Black Sea intensifies.
• Monitor US-China dialogue and Canadian weather for potential volatility triggers.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	06.06.2025	07.06.2025	08.06.2025	Currency
Euronext (MATIF) Aug 25	480.5	482	481	EUR/t
ICE Canada Jul 25	700.5	703	700	CAD/t
Physical (FOB Paris)	0.54	0.54	0.55	EUR/kg
Physical (FCA Odesa)	0.51	0.51	0.52	EUR/kg