The rapeseed market has extended its upward trajectory, underscoring the impact of supply tightness and heightened demand dynamics across Europe. Over the past five sessions, Euronext’s front-month August contract has reached a two-and-a-half-month high, settling at 490.50 EUR/t after a weekly gain of 16 EUR (+2%). This persistent rally signals growing confidence among market participants, fueled by constrained old-crop stocks and ongoing concerns over the 2025 harvest. While related oilseed markets such as CBOT soybeans opened the week softer after a prior run-up, rapeseed remained resilient, bolstered by strong crush demand and an uncertain production outlook in the EU and Black Sea regions.
Canadian ICE canola futures echoed this sentiment, hovering near recent highs even as global oilseed sentiment wavers. Market participants are now closely watching both weather developments, especially across France, Germany, Ukraine, and Canada, and the latest trade flows as exporters and crushers face heightened competition for limited supplies. Looking ahead, the interplay between weather-influenced yields, policy signals, and speculative positioning is poised to keep volatility elevated in the rapeseed complex.
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📈 Prices: Key Exchange Updates
| Contract | Exchange | Last Close | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | Euronext (MATIF) | 490.50 EUR/t | +16.00 EUR (+2%) | Bullish |
| Nov 25 | Euronext (MATIF) | 495.00 EUR/t | 0.00 EUR | Stable to Firm |
| Jul 25 | ICE CA Canola | 710.00 CAD/t | -0.80 CAD (-0.11%) | Range-bound |
| Nov 25 | ICE CA Canola | 693.90 CAD/t | +1.30 CAD (+0.19%) | Slight Upside |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- EU tight old-crop stocks: Result of reduced plantings and erratic spring weather in France, Germany, and Poland.
- Ukraine: Lower prices reflect export competition and high logistics costs; farmers are holding back unsold inventory amid price swings.
- Canada: New-crop canola areas face above-average dryness, with late planting in the Prairies causing crop stress and concerns for 2025 yields.
- Global demand: Rapeseed crush margins remain supportive due to robust biofuel and food oil demand in the EU and Asia.
- Speculative flows: Money managers added net-long positions on Euronext rapeseed amid rising volatility and supportive technical signals.
📊 Fundamentals: Production, Trade & Stocks
- EU (2024/25): Production estimates cut to 18.5-19.0 million t (vs. 20.1 million t last season) due to winterkills and spring dryness.
- Ukraine: Estimated 2025 crop ~4.1 million t (slightly lower year-over-year) with substantial carryover stocks; ongoing war and logistics remain downside risks.
- Canada: Current projections: 18-18.5 million t, subject to weather improvement; stocks historically tight.
- China: Steady import demand with the EU and Australia as major origins.
| Country | 2024/25 Production (mt) | Stock Change |
|---|---|---|
| EU | ~18.7 | Lower |
| Ukraine | ~4.1 | Ample Exportable |
| Canada | ~18.0 | Tight |
| China | n/a | Stable |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- France & Germany: Intermittent rains are currently benefiting late-planted crops, though parts of northern and eastern Germany remain drier than normal.
- Ukraine: Warm, dry conditions prevail; rainfall over the next 10 days is critical for filling pods and securing final yields.
- Canada Prairies: Mostly dry with only scattered precipitation expected; late-sown canola at elevated risk of yield reduction if dryness persists.
🗒️ Market Drivers & Report Comparison
- Persisting supply tightness in the EU and weather uncertainty in key origins continue to dominate market sentiment.
- Bullish rally has surpassed last month’s high by over 2% on Euronext; compared to last report, the trend has accelerated with more speculative support.
- ICE Canola prices are more mixed, reflecting North American crop uncertainty and external pressure from soy and palm oil.
- Weakness in Ukrainian farmers selling signals the floor for physical prices in the Black Sea.
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Maintain bullish bias on Euronext front-months amid seasonal tightness; consider locking in prices for old-crop deliveries.
- For crushers: Secure coverage through harvest, but assess upside risk if weather remains adverse.
- Hedgers in Canada: Monitor Prairie weather closely; consider options strategies given volatility.
- Watch for speculative exits if external oilseed complexes turn negative.
- Medium-term: Track EU imports and policy headlines as potential volatility triggers post-harvest.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | 12-Jun-2025 | 13-Jun-2025 | 14-Jun-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext Aug 25 | 491-494 EUR/t | 492-496 EUR/t | 495-497 EUR/t |
| ICE CA Jul 25 | 709-713 CAD/t | 709-715 CAD/t | 713-718 CAD/t |
| Ukraine (Odesa, FCA) | 0.48-0.50 EUR/kg | 0.48-0.51 EUR/kg | 0.49-0.52 EUR/kg |
| France (FOB) | 0.54-0.56 EUR/kg | 0.54-0.57 EUR/kg | 0.55-0.58 EUR/kg |
