Rapeseed futures on MATIF and ICE canola slide to late‑August lows, weighed by strong soybean supply, falling vegoil markets and softer EU physical prices.
Prices
The benchmark Euronext (MATIF) rapeseed curve remains in contango but has softened materially. On 21 October, the November 2026 contract was quoted at EUR 485.75/t, while February 2027 settled at EUR 540.25/t, May 2027 at EUR 543.75/t and August 2027 at EUR 523.50/t, all unchanged on the day but marking the lowest closes since the end of August.
External data confirm the downtrend: independent assessments place the February 2027 contract around EUR 542–545/t this week, highlighting how prices have retreated from highs above EUR 550/t seen in late September. ICE canola futures in Winnipeg are showing a similar pattern, with November 2026 closing at CAD 772.00/t and nearby positions down by around 0.7–1.2% on Wednesday alone, extending a seven‑session losing streak.
In the physical market, our quotations show French rapeseed FOB Paris at EUR 0.63/kg (EUR 630/t) on 16 October, down from EUR 0.64/kg earlier in the month, indicating modest weakening alongside futures. Ukrainian origins are broadly stable to slightly softer: CPT Odesa grade 1 is indicated at EUR 0.401/kg on 20 October, unchanged from 16 October after earlier mid‑month volatility, while FCA Odesa 42% min oil remains at EUR 0.46/kg and FCA Kyiv 42% min oil at EUR 0.45/kg.
| Market | Contract / Term | Last price | Currency / Basis | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext Rapeseed | Nov 2026 | 485.75 | EUR/t (futures) | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Euronext Rapeseed | Feb 2027 | 540.25 | EUR/t (futures) | 21 Oct 2026 |
| ICE Canola | Nov 2026 | 772.00 | CAD/t (futures) | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Rapeseed | Grade 1 < 35 mcm, UA, CPT Odesa | 0.401 | EUR/kg (CPT) | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Rapeseed | UA, FCA Odesa, 42% min oil | 0.46 | EUR/kg (FCA) | 15 Oct 2026 |
| Rapeseed | FR, FOB Paris | 0.63 | EUR/kg (FOB) | 16 Oct 2026 |
Supply & Demand Drivers
The pressure on rapeseed is largely imported from the broader oilseed complex. CBOT soybean futures have fallen for nine consecutive sessions, with the nearby November contract at its lowest since late August, while ICE canola has declined for seven straight days, closely tracking weaker soyoil and palm oil markets. This synchronous weakness across oilseeds has weighed heavily on MATIF rapeseed.
Fundamentally, the US soybean market is burdened by favourable harvest weather that is allowing rapid fieldwork and underpinning expectations of a record US crop around 124 million tonnes this season. In Brazil, soybean sowing for 2026/27 is progressing without major problems, and the latest national projections point to another very large grain harvest overall, reinforcing the perception of ample future oilseed supply.
In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange has kept its 2026/27 soybean crop estimate at 47.8 million tonnes, while the USDA projects 50 million tonnes, underscoring generally comfortable global bean balances even if local weather risks persist. Robust US export demand is evident, with over 1.28 million tonnes of soybeans reported sold so far this week alone, mainly to China and Spain, but this has not yet been sufficient to offset the supply‑driven bearish tone in futures.
Within the EU, structural rapeseed availability in 2026/27 is expected to tighten moderately versus last year, but this supportive factor is being overshadowed for now by macro‑level oilseed abundance and demand uncertainty in vegoils and biodiesel. Recent independent market commentary highlights that MATIF rapeseed has been sliding together with wheat, even as corn holds firmer, and that rapeseed oil prices have softened modestly in tandem with seeds and competing oils.
Exclusive commodities on CMBroker
Fundamentals & Positioning
Despite the recent price setback, the MATIF curve continues to show a notable premium for February versus November 2026, reflecting tighter nearby fundamentals and ongoing demand from crushers and biodiesel producers. However, the front‑end premium has narrowed compared with early October as selling pressure increased and as market participants became more confident in the global soy and canola outlook.
Speculative positioning on Euronext has adjusted materially. In the week to 16 October, financial investors reduced their net long in rapeseed from 45,897 to 31,568 contracts, signalling a significant loss of bullish conviction. Commercial participants cut their net short from 48,053 to 31,844 contracts, suggesting increased hedging by crushers and merchants at lower price levels and some short‑covering by consumers.
The combination of reduced speculative length and still‑elevated open interest (over 107,000 contracts in February 2027 alone) points to a market that has become more balanced but remains vulnerable to further fund selling if macro sentiment deteriorates or if additional bearish news on global oilseed supply emerges. Conversely, any weather‑driven disruption in key oilseed regions or signs of stronger biodiesel demand could trigger a sharp short‑covering rally from the current low base.
Weather Snapshot
Weather is currently more supportive for global oilseed supply than for prices. In the US Midwest, harvest‑time conditions this week are broadly favourable, allowing soybean cutting to proceed rapidly and reducing the risk of field losses, reinforcing expectations for the USDA’s record 124‑million‑tonne crop. In Brazil, early planting conditions are characterised as generally adequate, with progress running ahead of last year in several states.
Within Europe, the severe dryness and heat of the 2026 summer raised concerns for some crops, but for winter rapeseed the key focus now is on establishment of the 2027 harvest. Recent temperature and rainfall patterns during early autumn have been mixed, yet no widespread planting failure or major damage has been reported. Looking ahead, seasonal forecasts linked to the strong El Niño suggest increased weather volatility, but for now the immediate weather backdrop leans mildly bearish for prices given the broadly favourable start to the South American season.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)
- For crushers and biodiesel producers: Current MATIF and physical levels, near the lowest since late August, offer improved seed procurement opportunities. Staggered buying on further dips, particularly for nearby needs, appears prudent given still‑tight EU fundamentals and the risk of weather‑ or policy‑driven rebounds.
- For farmers: With futures and FOB values under pressure, aggressive forward selling at current levels seems less attractive unless on‑farm storage is constrained. Consider modest incremental hedging on any short‑term rallies back toward recent resistance rather than selling into current weakness.
- For traders and speculators: Momentum remains negative as long as soybeans, soyoil and canola stay soft, but much of the length has already been flushed out. Risk‑managed, short‑biased strategies may still work in the near term, yet traders should be alert for short‑covering spikes on any bullish weather or demand surprise.
3‑Day Directional Outlook
- MATIF rapeseed (Nov 2026, Feb 2027): Bias slightly lower to sideways as long as the soy complex and ICE canola remain weak; intraday volatility likely around technical support zones near current late‑August lows.
- ICE canola (nearby): Downside risk persists after seven consecutive lower closes, but scope for a short‑term consolidation bounce is increasing as prices approach multi‑week support.
- EU physical rapeseed (FR FOB, UA CPT/FCA): Expect a broadly steady to slightly softer tone, tracking futures and competing oils, with basis levels likely to remain relatively stable in the very short term.