Rice Market 2026/27: Balanced Fundamentals, Softening Export Prices

Global rice fundamentals for 2026/27 point to a broadly balanced market with comfortable stocks and record trade, keeping price risk skewed to sideways rather than sharply higher moves. Farm prices in the US are seen moderately firmer year on year, while FOB quotes from key Asian exporters remain soft to stable in euro terms, reinforcing a range-bound outlook. The global supply picture remains robust despite a marginal 0.1 million tonne downgrade in total availability to about 734 million tonnes, driven mainly by lower beginning stocks in Iraq and Vietnam. Production in 2026/27 is estimated at 537.8 million tonnes, while the previous season (2025/26) has been revised higher to 544.7 million tonnes thanks to a record Indian crop of 154 million tonnes. Consumption, trade and ending stocks are all moving only fractionally, suggesting a market that is well-supplied but not oversupplied.

Prices

FOB export offers in India and Vietnam, converted into EUR, indicate a soft to steady tone over July–early August 2026. Indian non-basmati steam and parboiled categories have eased slightly over the last three weeks, while premium basmati and organic lines are holding firm at higher absolute levels.

In the United States, the average farm price for all rice in 2026/27 is projected at around USD 13.50 per cwt, up from an estimated USD 12.50 in 2025/26, implying modest year‑on‑year firmness but no sign of a price spike.1 In euro terms, this still places US rice at a premium to Asian FOB benchmarks, but the gap is broadly stable, supporting trade flows without materially distorting global price formation.

Supply & Demand

Global rice supply in 2026/27 is projected at roughly 734 million tonnes, only fractionally lower than earlier expectations due to reduced opening stocks in Iraq and Vietnam. Production remains steady at 537.8 million tonnes, while 2025/26 output has been revised up by 1.9 million tonnes on the back of India’s record 154 million tonne harvest.

World consumption is forecast at 541.2 million tonnes, about 0.2 million tonnes lower than previous projections, reflecting reduced use in Iraq and Vietnam. With production broadly matching use, the market stays fundamentally balanced, limiting upside pressure on prices and giving importers confidence about forward coverage.

International rice trade is expected to remain at a record level of around 63 million tonnes. Strong export availability from Asia and steady demand from Africa, Asia and the Middle East underpin this high trade volume, while the balanced global stock situation reduces the incentive for new export restrictions compared with earlier crisis episodes.2

Global ending stocks in 2026/27 are projected at 192.8 million tonnes, up marginally by 0.1 million tonnes. Higher inventories in Cambodia are expected to offset drawdowns in Bangladesh and other markets, leaving the stock‑to‑use ratio comfortably high by historical standards and reinforcing the view of an adequately supplied market.

Fundamentals & Regional Focus

India remains the central driver of global rice fundamentals, with its 2025/26 crop raised to a record 154 million tonnes. This increase, alongside stable 2026/27 production expectations, anchors export availability and helps explain the recent small declines in FOB prices for mainstream non‑basmati and parboiled categories in New Delhi.

In the United States, total rice supply in 2026/27 is expected to edge higher owing to larger beginning stocks following weaker long‑grain exports in 2025/26. Domestic use and export forecasts are unchanged, so the additional supply translates into higher ending stocks and only moderate farm price gains, contributing to the overall picture of ample global availability.1

Vietnamese FOB quotes for long white 5%, Jasmine, Homali and specialty rice show a similar softening bias over July, with small week‑on‑week declines of around EUR 0.01/kg. This suggests exporters are competing actively for demand in a record‑trade but well‑supplied environment, particularly into African and Middle Eastern markets where import requirements are steady but not accelerating.

Weather & Risk Outlook

Weather risks for 2026/27 are currently focused on the Asian monsoon belt and El Niño–related volatility. Early‑season commentary for India points to an uneven monsoon onset and concerns over possible below‑normal rainfall in parts of the season, although recent low‑pressure systems have improved rainfall prospects in key northern and eastern states.3

Scientific work on recent monsoon behaviour suggests a lengthening of the rainy season in parts of southern India, with more complex onset and withdrawal dynamics that can offset early deficits later in the season.4 For now, there is no clear evidence that 2026/27 rice production in India or Southeast Asia will be significantly impaired, but the combination of monsoon uncertainty and an evolving El Niño keeps weather as the main upside risk to prices rather than demand or policy factors.

Market & Trading Outlook

The combination of balanced global fundamentals, record trade volumes and soft to stable export offers favours a broadly range‑bound price outlook into the short term. Modest firmness in US farm prices is being offset by competitive Asian FOB levels, suggesting that any significant price move in the coming months would most likely be driven by weather shocks or sudden policy changes rather than incremental demand shifts.

• Importers: Use current soft FOB levels from India and Vietnam to extend coverage moderately into Q4 2026, prioritising core grades (5% broken, parboiled) while avoiding excessive forward length in premium basmati segments.
• Exporters: Maintain competitive offers but avoid aggressive undercutting, as fundamentals do not justify a price war; focus on securing volume contracts into Africa and the Middle East where demand is stable.
• Risk managers: Monitor Indian monsoon updates and any new trade policy signals from major exporters; consider light upside price protection for late‑season shipments if clear production stress emerges.

3‑Day Price Indication (directional, EUR‑based)

• India FOB New Delhi (steam & parboiled non‑basmati): Stable to slightly softer, reflecting comfortable local supply.
• Vietnam FOB Hanoi (5% broken and fragrant types): Stable with mild downward bias on competitive selling.
• US farmgate (all rice, 2026/27): Firm but steady in EUR terms, tracking the projected USD 13.50 per cwt season‑average price.

1. USDA rice outlook confirms a projected 2026/27 US all‑rice farm price around USD 13.50 per cwt, slightly above 2025/26.
2. Historical episodes such as the 2008 rice crisis show how stock tightness and export restrictions drive price spikes; the current higher stock levels and record trade volumes mark a contrast to that environment.
3. Recent monsoon updates highlight variable rainfall and evolving low‑pressure systems influencing Indian crop prospects in July–August 2026.
4. Research on Indian monsoon dynamics and wet‑season rainfall patterns in southern India underscores changing onset and season length, with implications for rice yields under climate variability.