Raisin Market Cools After Wedding Season Surge as Import Risks Linger
Raisin prices are range‑bound after India’s wedding season, with high import costs and Iran–Afghanistan supply risks keeping a firm floor under Delhi and EU markets.
Prices & Current Levels
Delhi wholesale indications for standard grades are assessed around EUR 28–35 per kg equivalent for common imported qualities, with premium Munakka trading noticeably higher. These are indicative wholesale levels and reflect elevated landed costs at a rupee of roughly 94.47 per US dollar, compared with sub‑90 levels in earlier, cheaper import cycles.
Export and intra‑EU offers confirm a broadly steady tone rather than a strong downtrend or spike. In New Delhi (FOB/FCA), recent quotes for Indian raisins cluster between about EUR 1.76–2.50 per kg for black, brown and golden Grade AA lots, showing only a few euro‑cents firming over late April. In continental Europe, FCA prices in the Netherlands and Germany for sultanas and specialty types mostly range from roughly EUR 1.85 to 2.90 per kg, with organic Turkish product commanding a premium above EUR 3.00 per kg.
Supply & Demand Dynamics
In Delhi’s dry fruit markets, raisins recently traded in the background while almonds drew more attention, underlining the current off‑peak phase for raisins. Demand in India follows a clear seasonal pattern: a strong push during the winter and wedding season, a quieter consolidation phase in late spring and early summer, and a second up‑swing as Diwali and winter festivals approach from October onwards. The present softness in day‑to‑day trading is therefore viewed as seasonal, not structural.
On the supply side, India’s key wholesale hubs depend heavily on imported raisins. Green Kandhari from Afghanistan and golden Munakka from Iran and Central Asia dominate the premium segment, while smaller domestic and regional grades fill in the lower tiers. Global data underline that Turkey, the US (California), Chile, South Africa, Iran and Afghanistan remain the backbone of international raisin trade, with Turkey and the US leading sultana and Thompson seedless exports.
Despite the current demand lull, medium‑term global fundamentals are broadly balanced. World raisin/sultana/currant output for 2025/26 is estimated slightly above the previous season, and storage stability allows exporters to service year‑round demand even as shipment timing shifts between hemispheres. Industrial usage in confectionery and baking remains stable, with purchasing managers focusing more on price risk and logistics than on volume constraints at this stage.
Fundamentals, Currency & Geopolitics
The most important near‑term fundamental for Indian‑traded raisins is the rupee–dollar exchange rate. At about 94.47 per US dollar, the rupee keeps landed import costs for all three main Delhi‑traded raisin groups well above the levels seen when the exchange rate was below 90. This currency effect offsets some of the seasonal softness in demand, preventing a more pronounced price correction in wholesale markets.
Geopolitically, the market is watching developments in Afghanistan and Iran closely. Afghanistan has reaffirmed its role as a major dried‑fruit exporter, shipping over 200,000 tonnes of dried fruits worth around USD 667 million in the last Persian year, with raisins a key component. At the same time, Iran’s sweeping temporary ban on food and agricultural exports announced in early March 2026 has created uncertainty for Munakka and other Iranian‑linked flows, even if enforcement details and duration remain fluid.
Broader regional tensions, particularly the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis and associated disruptions to shipping and fuel prices, add another layer of cost risk to long‑haul raisin trade. So far, the impact is more visible in freight and insurance premiums than in outright supply shortages, but the situation underpins a cautious tone among importers and supports a risk premium for dependable origins and nearby stocks.
Weather Outlook in Key Growing Regions
In India’s Maharashtra grape and raisin belt (including Marathwada and South Madhya Maharashtra), the India Meteorological Department and local forecasts indicate thunderstorms, light to moderate rainfall and gusty winds over the coming week. While this pattern may disrupt some on‑farm and drying activities, the bulk of raisins currently traded in Delhi stems from earlier harvests and established stocks, so immediate supply effects should be limited.
For Northern Hemisphere exporters such as Turkey and Iran, the 2026 season is still in its early‑to‑mid weather phase. No acute, large‑scale weather‑driven production shocks have been reported in the past few days for key sultana regions, but the geopolitical overlay around Iran means buyers are paying closer attention than usual to any sign of logistical strain or policy‑driven export constraints.
Short‑Term Outlook (2–4 Weeks)
Over the next two to four weeks, the raisin market is expected to continue trading quietly within established ranges. Delhi wholesale prices are likely to remain broadly stable, with only modest, currency‑driven adjustments unless significantly cheaper import consignments arrive at Indian ports or there is a sudden escalation in regional logistics disruptions. The current period should be seen as a consolidation phase before Diwali‑season procurement begins in earnest from August onwards.
European confectionery and bakery buyers monitoring South Asian dry fruit markets can treat the present calm as an opportunity to refine forward coverage, particularly for standard sultana and Thompson grades. Any fresh tightening of Afghan export logistics—whether at land borders or along newer corridors—would most immediately affect premium green Kandhari availability and could ripple into adjacent grades as substitution kicks in.
Trading Recommendations
- Indian importers / wholesalers: Use the current lull to lock in medium‑term cover for standard grades while rupee‑driven costs are known and physical availability from multiple origins is adequate. Avoid aggressive destocking given the geopolitical and currency risk backdrop.
- European industrial buyers: Gradually extend coverage into Q4 2026 for sultanas and standard seedless raisins, prioritising origins with lower policy and logistics risk (e.g., Turkey, EU‑stored stocks), while keeping a premium budget line open for Afghan and Central Asian specialties.
- Export‑oriented packers in India: Monitor freight and insurance costs closely; consider hedging fuel‑linked components where possible and explore staggered shipment schedules to mitigate any further escalation in Strait‑of‑Hormuz‑related disruptions.
- Risk management: Build scenario buffers in contracts for potential regulatory shifts in Iran and transit constraints affecting Afghan cargoes, including flexible origin clauses where buyers accept alternative sources at pre‑agreed price bands.
3‑Day Price Indication & Direction
- Delhi wholesale (imported standard grades): Prices expected to remain broadly flat in EUR terms over the next three days, with a slight upward bias if the rupee weakens further.
- Turkey FOB Malatya (sultanas): EUR prices likely to hold around current levels, with only minor intra‑week moves driven by FX and freight rather than fundamentals.
- EU hubs (Netherlands, Germany, FCA): Local stock‑based offers should stay stable to marginally softer, as logistic risks are already priced in and immediate demand is moderate.