Raisin prices correct sharply in India while Europe sees muted moves

Indian raisin prices have undergone a sharp single‑session correction, driven by a seasonal demand trough and cautious buyers, while European offers remain broadly stable but increasingly competitive versus Indian-origin product. The raisin market has turned decisively softer in India after a pronounced price drop in Delhi’s dry fruit wholesale trade on 11 May 2026. Weak buyer offtake following the spring wedding peak, increased competition from Chinese-origin dry fruits via Nepal, and uncertainty around premium segment demand are pressuring both domestic and imported lots. For European buyers, the correction improves short-term import opportunities from India, but it coincides with lingering logistics risks around Iranian and Afghan supply and raises quality concerns for summer-stored stocks.

Prices & recent moves

In Delhi’s wholesale market, domestic raisins in 40 kg lots fell by about $5.25–$10.51 per lot on 11 May, correcting to roughly $194.50–$236.65 per lot. This implies an indicative mid-range of about €5.4 per kg for domestic material after the move (converted at current FX, rounded). Imported premium raisins from Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia corrected to around $241.90–$336.23 per lot, or roughly €7.2 per kg at the mid-point, maintaining their traditional premium but also registering a notable single-session decline.

In contrast, recent offer data into Europe show only mild week-on-week adjustments. Chinese sultanas (type 9, RTU, FCA Hamburg) are indicated around €2.17/kg, while Turkish sultanas (type 9, grade A, FOB Malatya) stand close to €2.45/kg. Indian golden raisins ex-New Delhi are quoted near €2.29–2.50/kg FOB/FCA, with brown and black AA grades around €1.76–1.87/kg. Overall, European prices have been drifting sideways to slightly lower since late April, but the sharp Delhi correction suggests additional downside risk on India-linked benchmarks.

Supply, demand & trade flows

On the demand side, India has entered its seasonal trough. Wedding and festive buying, which underpins domestic use in confectionery, mithai and dessert applications, has passed its spring peak. With demand typically subdued until pre-festive restocking ahead of Raksha Bandhan and Diwali, wholesalers are now more focused on liquidating inventories built earlier in the year. The sharp Delhi price adjustment reflects this inventory-clearing phase and the reluctance of buyers to absorb stocks at previously elevated levels.

At the same time, the rapid penetration of Chinese dry fruits and nuts via the Nepal grey route is reshaping substitution patterns. Competitive Chinese-origin products are undermining price support not only in walnuts but across the broader dry fruit complex, including raisins. Buyers hesitate to commit to conventional channels when non-standard but cheaper alternatives may appear, reinforcing a cautious, hand-to-mouth procurement stance.

Globally, Iran and Afghanistan remain central to supply, especially for premium and feed-quality raisins into Asia and Europe. Both origins face evolving trade and logistics challenges that intermittently disrupt flows. The ongoing Iran–US military conflict since late February 2026 has complicated shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, pushing some raisin exports toward overland routes through Turkey and Central Asia. These alternative corridors are functioning but add time and cost, creating episodic differentials between FOB origin prices and delivered European values.

Fundamentals & quality considerations

The fundamental backdrop into early summer is characterised by comfortable availability but uneven quality. Stocks in India are adequate after strong procurement earlier in the season, and the current correction is primarily demand-led rather than driven by outright oversupply. However, the timing within the hot season raises questions about storage conditions. Summer temperatures can stress warehouse infrastructure, and European buyers tapping Delhi’s more competitive prices should intensify quality checks, particularly on moisture, infestation risk and colour consistency.

For Europe, current offer indications suggest that Chinese and Turkish origins set a relatively firm floor for mainstream sultanas in the €2.1–2.5/kg band, while Indian product is being pulled lower by domestic weakness. Feed-quality Afghan raisins around €1.8–1.9/kg in the Netherlands highlight a widening spread between industrial and premium segments. If Indian wholesale prices remain under pressure for several weeks, FOB values could edge closer to these lower industrial benchmarks for selected grades, tightening differentials and encouraging some upgrading by value-conscious buyers.

Short-term outlook (2–4 weeks)

The near-term outlook is for continued softness, with a base-building phase likely once the current inventory liquidation in India runs its course. Demand is expected to remain muted through June, with limited triggers for a sustained price recovery until pre-festive procurement begins to emerge in July and August. In this environment, sellers may accept further small discounts to move ageing stocks, especially in mid-grade and domestic segments that compete most directly with cheaper Chinese and Afghan material.

Logistics risks from Iran and Afghanistan are an important but secondary driver in the 2–4 week horizon. Barring a major escalation that materially constrains overland routes, European buyers are unlikely to face acute supply shortages. Instead, they are positioned to benefit from a buyer’s market, using Indian weakness and occasional disruptions from the Gulf region to negotiate better delivered terms while preserving origin diversification.

Trading outlook & recommendations

• European industrial users: Use current softness to extend coverage modestly for Q3, focusing on Indian golden and brown AA grades where FOB/FCA levels are under pressure. Prioritise lots with recent pack dates and verified cool storage.
• Premium segment buyers: Maintain diversification between Iranian/Afghan, Turkish and Indian origins. Negotiate quality-driven premiums, but insist on detailed specifications (size, moisture, defect tolerances) to avoid overpaying relative to softer Delhi benchmarks.
• Indian wholesalers and importers: Move aggressively on ageing summer stocks, even at discounted prices, to clear space ahead of pre-festive buying. Consider tactical imports from competitive Chinese channels only where quality can be clearly guaranteed.
• Risk management: Monitor developments in the Iran–US conflict and any impact on road/rail routes through Turkey and Central Asia. Use optionality in contracts (flexible origins, shipment windows) to hedge against sudden freight or insurance cost spikes.

3‑day regional price indication (directional)

• India (New Delhi, FOB/FCA): Bias slightly lower to sideways over the next 3 days as the market digests the sharp Delhi correction and buyers remain cautious.
• EU Northwest Europe (Hamburg/Dordrecht, FCA): Mostly sideways with a mild downside tilt, reflecting soft sentiment from India and steady availability from China and Afghanistan.
• Turkey (Malatya, FOB): Largely stable; any minor weakness likely limited by competitive export pricing and ongoing logistical uncertainties in rival origins.