Raisin Prices Edge Higher on Firm India and Tight Global Seedless Supply

Indian and export-origin raisin prices are grinding higher, led by modest gains in New Delhi offers and steady to firm quotes from Türkiye, Chile, China and Afghanistan-origin lots into Europe. The market remains underpinned by structurally tighter seedless supply, while demand is cautious and highly price-sensitive. After a brief period of sideways trade earlier in May, raisins have turned mildly bullish across key origins, with India showing incremental day‑by‑day gains and Turkish sultanas holding firm. Domestic dry-grape prices in Indian mandis indicate solid internal absorption, while European FCA levels for Chilean, Chinese and Afghan lots have ticked up in line with freight and logistics costs. Weather in the main production belts of Türkiye, India and China is seasonally warm without major stress, supporting quality but not yet justifying a sharp risk premium. Short term, prices look supported to slightly higher rather than poised for a major breakout.

Prices & Spreads (All Values in EUR)

Note: USD-denominated offers converted at ≈1.07 USD/EUR; changes reflect internal week-on-week movements.

Supply & Demand Snapshot

Global seedless raisin supply in 2025/26 is lower year on year, with major producers such as India, Türkiye and Chile all showing reduced production versus the previous season according to recent industry balances. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council projects world raisin production in 2025/26 to fall nearly 14% from 2024/25, with India down from 245,000 t to about 160,000 t and Türkiye from about 226,000 t to 165,000 t. This structural tightness is the main bull driver behind today’s firm pricing.

On the demand side, retail prices for packaged raisins in India have softened slightly in recent weeks, consistent with more price‑sensitive consumer behavior. Nevertheless, wholesale dry‑grape mandi prices in Karnataka around €1.20–1.25/kg equivalent signal stable to good domestic draw. In export markets, confectionery and bakery buyers in Europe are restocking only on dips, but have limited ability to switch away from raisins due to formulation constraints, keeping a floor under demand.

Weather & Crop Conditions (AF, CL, CN, IN, TR)

Türkiye (TR)

Weather in Manisa, the core Turkish sultana belt, has been seasonally warm and dry in May, with daytime highs mostly in the mid‑20s to low‑30s °C and no widespread frost or hail reported. Conditions are broadly favorable for vine growth and berry set, supporting expectations of a normal to slightly below‑trend 2026 harvest after last season’s reduction in supply. The absence of acute weather stress this week reduces upside weather risk in the immediate term.

India (IN)

In Maharashtra’s raisin districts, heat has intensified into late May, but this is now largely post‑harvest for the main drying crop and mainly affects storage and logistics rather than yield. Recent agri‑price platforms show firm dry-grape prices across Karnataka and western India, suggesting that the internal supply surplus from the smaller 2025/26 crop is limited. Weather is thus neutral‑to‑supportive for quality, but not a major short‑term price driver this week.

China (CN)

Xinjiang, China’s core raisin region, has entered its warm growing phase; no major disruptions or frost episodes have been flagged in the last few days in regional weather summaries. While full seasonal forecasts are still being refined, the current pattern of stable warmth supports good vine development. In the absence of adverse headlines, markets treat China as a steady contributor to global supply at roughly 190,000 t for 2025/26.

Chile (CL)

Chile’s raisin crop is largely through harvest; recent national weather coverage highlights cooler, wetter patterns in parts of the country but no new extreme heat or wildfire events affecting vineyards in the past week. USDA projections already bake in a reduced table grape area and slightly lower raisin output (around 62,000 t) for 2025/26, keeping Chilean export supply constrained but predictable.

Afghanistan (AF)

Afghanistan’s raisin sector remains small in global terms at about 20,000 t of production in 2025/26, but plays an outsized role in regional trade into Central and Western Asia. Weather across key northern valleys has been seasonally warm with scattered showers, supporting vineyards after earlier winter precipitation. No fresh reports of large‑scale weather damage have emerged in the past three days, so price movements for Afghan-origin feed and industrial raisins into Europe are more freight and demand driven than weather driven this week.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

• Production balances: The March 2026 global balance sheet shows world raisin production around 1.16 million t in 2025/26 versus 1.35 million t in 2024/25, with consumption projected near 1.31 million t. Stocks are expected to draw down, reinforcing a medium‑term bullish backdrop.
• Export focus: Turkey and the U.S. remain the largest exporters by volume, with Chile, Iran, South Africa, China and India as key second‑tier suppliers. Turkey’s overall exports remain solid in early 2026, reflecting healthy European demand.
• India’s internal market: Mandi data show firm prices for dry grapes in Karnataka as of 21 May 2026, consistent with tighter domestic availability after a smaller crop. General food commodity indices in India also indicate elevated farm‑gate prices versus last year.
• Speculative & macro factors: Broader agri‑commodity markets are supported by concerns over weather volatility and input costs, which encourage merchants to maintain some length in dried fruit and nut portfolios even as end‑user demand softens at the margin.

Short-Term Outlook (3 Days) & Trading Ideas

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (in EUR terms)

• India (IN, FOB New Delhi): Mildly firmer. Tight domestic stock and steady export inquiries should keep golden and brown AA raisins edging up by about €0.01–0.02/kg over the next three days.
• Türkiye (TR, FOB/European FCA): Largely steady to slightly firmer. No new weather shocks and good export interest; near‑term moves likely within ±1%.
• China (CN, FCA EU): Stable. Sultanas from Xinjiang into Europe should track freight and FX, with little crop news to move prices either way.
• Chile (CL, FCA EU): Stable to firm. Constrained exportable surplus supports current premiums for flame jumbos; limited downside near term.
• Afghanistan (AF, feed/industrial into EU): Stable. Prices mainly follow logistics and competing low‑grade origins; no acute supply shock seen.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / packers (EU, MENA): Use any minor dips to extend cover on Indian golden and Turkish sultanas through Q3 2026, as global balances point to further stock drawdowns.
• Producers (IN, TR, CN, CL, AF): Maintain offer discipline; current price strength is fundamentally supported, and aggressive discounting is not warranted unless new crop weather turns clearly favorable and demand weakens further.
• Short‑term traders: Bias to the long side on quality seedless grades, with tight stops; upside is moderate but risk‑reward still favors small bullish positioning over the next few weeks.