Saudi Arabia Replaces China as EU’s Key Barley Buyer While Prices Soften

EU barley exports at the start of the 2026/27 season are down sharply as Chinese buying collapses, while Saudi Arabia has surged to become the dominant outlet. Local feed barley prices in Ukraine and Germany are edging lower to sideways, reflecting weak export demand and ample regional availability. The barley market is entering Q4 2026 with a markedly changed export map. From July 1 to mid‑September, the EU shipped significantly less barley than a year earlier, almost entirely because China has stepped back from the market. Saudi Arabia has stepped in with much stronger buying, partly offsetting the loss but not fully compensating volumes. In the Black Sea and EU, feed barley prices are soft to slightly weaker, with logistics costs and competition from corn and other feeds capping any upside despite stronger demand from the Middle East.

Prices

Feed barley prices in key supplying regions are broadly soft. In Ukraine, FCA Odesa offers for feed-grade barley seeds (moisture 14% max, 98% purity) are currently quoted at 0.16 EUR/kg FCA Odesa (id 437), unchanged since mid-September, while FCA Kyiv sits at 0.14 EUR/kg FCA Kyiv (id 438), also stable since September 24 after a small earlier cut from 0.15 EUR/kg.

German feed barley seeds (moisture 14% max) in Drentwede are indicated at 0.22 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede as of September 30 (id 1237), down from 0.225–0.229 EUR/kg seen in early September, signaling mild downward pressure. Ukrainian CPT Odesa feed barley is offered around 0.128 EUR/kg CPT Odesa (id 1252), slightly below early‑September levels near 0.133–0.138 EUR/kg, while FOB Odesa cattle-feed barley stands at 0.137 EUR/kg FOB Odesa (id 764), down from mid‑month.

Supply & Demand

From July 1 to September 13, 2026, the EU exported about 1.7 million tonnes of barley, a drop of 39.9% versus roughly 2.8 million tonnes in the same period last year. China’s purchases collapsed to only 93,600 tonnes, down from around 872,000 tonnes a year earlier, slashing its share of EU barley exports from 30.8% to roughly 5.5%.

Saudi Arabia has partly filled this gap, lifting its EU barley imports by 86% to around 887,500 tonnes, compared with 476,800 tonnes one year ago. As a result, Saudi Arabia has become the EU’s largest barley outlet, accounting for roughly 52.2% of total exports in this early-season window. Latest customs-based tallies indicate EU barley exports have inched up to just above 1.9 million tonnes by late September, but still remain far below last year’s pace, confirming barley as the weakest performer among major EU grains in export terms.

Outside the EU, global trade data for recent years show China and Saudi Arabia as the two dominant barley importers, but the current EU shipment pattern underscores how quickly demand can rotate between these buyers. Middle Eastern markets, especially the Gulf region, continue to be structurally important destinations for EU cereals, with barley a key component of feed demand in Saudi Arabia and neighboring countries.

Fundamentals & Drivers

The main bearish driver for EU barley is the abrupt contraction in Chinese demand at the start of the 2026/27 marketing year. The drop in Chinese purchases accounts for the bulk of the EU export decline, significantly reducing competition for Australian and Black Sea origins into China and forcing European suppliers to reorient volumes toward the Middle East and other destinations.

At the same time, stronger Saudi Arabian buying is providing a floor to the market but not enough to restore last year’s export volumes. Jordan and other Middle Eastern buyers have also increased EU barley intake compared with previous seasons, but their combined demand still trails the lost Chinese business. Intra-EU competition from corn and alternative feeds, along with high logistics costs to ports, further limits barley’s price upside, particularly in Ukraine where farmers are prioritizing crops with stronger export pull.

Weather & Crop Context

Weather in key European barley-growing regions is currently not the dominant driver for prices, as the main 2026 harvest is largely complete and early export flows are more constrained by demand than by supply. Still, generally adequate conditions over late summer helped secure solid yields across much of the EU, contributing to comfortable availability for export and feed use.

In the Black Sea, recent reports do not indicate major late-season weather damage to barley stocks, so supply-side risks appear moderate in the near term. As a result, the market focus remains firmly on demand from China, Saudi Arabia, and other importers rather than on crop-related shocks.

Outlook & Trading Perspective

Unless Chinese demand meaningfully recovers, EU barley exports are likely to remain below last season’s levels, keeping a generally soft tone in prices despite strong Saudi buying. EU exporters will need to keep cultivating alternative markets in the Middle East and North Africa to absorb available supply.

• Producers (EU & Ukraine): Consider scaling in hedging on rallies driven by short-lived demand spikes from Saudi Arabia or logistical disruptions, as underlying export demand remains weaker year-on-year.
• Exporters & Traders: Focus forward sales on Saudi Arabia and nearby Middle Eastern destinations, where demand is strongest, while watching for any signs of renewed Chinese buying or tender activity.
• Feed buyers (EU livestock sector): Use current soft prices to extend coverage into Q4 2026, especially from origins with cheaper logistics, while retaining some flexibility in case of further downside if exports stay sluggish.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication

• Ukraine (Kyiv, FCA): Around 0.14 EUR/kg, seen stabilizing in the next 3 days amid already low levels and cautious farmer selling.
• Ukraine (Odesa, FCA/CPT/FOB): 0.16 EUR/kg FCA, 0.128 EUR/kg CPT and 0.137 EUR/kg FOB suggest a mildly bearish to sideways tone as export demand lags.
• Germany (Drentwede, EXW): About 0.22 EUR/kg with a slightly softer bias but no immediate catalyst for sharp moves.