Sesame seeds steady in New Delhi as low arrivals cap downside

Sesame prices in New Delhi are holding steady with downside increasingly limited, as tight arrivals and solid processor and export demand underpin the market. Any improvement in export buying could quickly tilt the balance towards a firmer price trend. The sesame complex in India is currently trading in a narrow band, with both natural and hulled grades showing only minor week‑on‑week adjustments in euro terms. Processors and exporters are actively covering nearby needs at lower levels, absorbing available supplies amid relatively limited arrivals in the physical markets. Globally, sesame prices have been broadly stable through Q1–Q2 2026, and a still‑delayed monsoon in key western Indian states suggests farmers may be cautious with new plantings, adding to the sense that the downside from here is constrained. Overall, the near‑term bias is sideways to slightly firmer.

Prices

In New Delhi, export‑oriented sesame quotations converted to EUR (using an indicative rate of 1 EUR ≈ 1.08 USD) show a broadly steady market with only modest recent moves:

Indian prices remain competitive versus indicative global export benchmarks around the equivalent of 1.70–1.75 EUR/kg in the US, supporting ongoing interest from price‑sensitive buyers.

Supply & Demand

• Limited arrivals: Physical arrivals into New Delhi and other key mandis are described as limited, restricting nearby availability and preventing further price erosion at current levels.
• Processor demand: Domestic oilseed processors and industrial users are providing a stable demand base, steadily lifting material at lower prices and underpinning the market.
• Export enquiries: Export buying interest is “steady” rather than aggressive, but sufficient to support prices. Any acceleration in export demand would likely move the market from steady to distinctly firm.
• Global backdrop: Recent assessments of the global sesame seed market indicate largely stable prices across major regions in Q1 2026, with balanced harvest availability and solid use in food processing, bakery and edible oil applications.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather remains a key watchpoint for the next planting cycle in India. Private forecasters note that the southwest monsoon’s advance along the Arabian Sea branch is delayed, with Gujarat and adjoining western regions still waiting for a proper onset and temperatures holding near or above 40°C.

Model guidance suggests the monsoon may not significantly progress into western India until closer to late June, while seasonal rainfall for India as a whole is currently projected around normal to slightly below normal, with some El Niño risk flagged by weather commentators. If delays persist or rainfall underperforms in key sesame belts, new‑season acreage and yield potential could be trimmed, reinforcing the current view of limited downside.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks and pipeline: With limited arrivals and steady off‑take from processors and exporters, pipeline stocks are not burdensome. This keeps sellers relatively patient at current price ideas.
• Oilseed complex: Broader vegetable oil markets, including rapeseed oil, remain at historically elevated but recently more stable levels, reducing pressure on sesame oil prices and helping maintain seed values.
• India’s export role: India remains a leading global sesame exporter, and competitive New Delhi FOB levels keep the country well‑positioned to capture any incremental demand from the Middle East, East Asia and Europe.
• Domestic floor factors: Government minimum support prices (MSP) and rising production costs, as seen across the wider oilseed sector, implicitly raise the floor below which farmers become reluctant sellers.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Bias: sideways to slightly firmer. With limited arrivals and ongoing processor and export support at lower levels, the market is expected to stay steady with only modest downside risk.
• Upside trigger: A pick‑up in export enquiries, particularly from key Asian and Middle Eastern buyers, could quickly tighten nearby availability and lift prices.
• Weather risk: Further monsoon delays or emerging rainfall deficits in western and central India would be interpreted as bullish for new‑crop prospects and may encourage pre‑emptive buying.

Practical guidance

• Buyers (processors/importers): Use current stability to cover near‑term requirements, but consider staggered purchases into any weather‑driven dips, as structural downside appears limited.
• Exporters: Maintain offer levels but stay flexible on nearby shipments; a small improvement in global demand could justify slightly higher asking prices, especially for premium hulled and black grades.
• Producers: Given the constrained downside and monsoon uncertainty, delaying major forward sales until rainfall trends clarify may be prudent, while still taking advantage of attractive basis opportunities when available.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (Key Prices, EUR)

• New Delhi FOB, hulled EU‑grade: Expected to trade in a narrow band around ≈1.30–1.33 EUR/kg, with a mild upward bias if export buying improves.
• New Delhi FCA, natural grades: Likely to hold around ≈1.20–1.30 EUR/kg, with small day‑to‑day fluctuations linked to local arrivals.
• Egypt FOB, natural sesame: Seen stable around ≈1.35–1.40 EUR/kg, tracking the generally steady global sesame tone.