Softening Chickpea FOBs in India & Mexico as Heat Builds in Delhi

Chickpea markets in India and Mexico are edging lower into mid-March 2026, with FOB offers from New Delhi and Mexico City showing a steady but orderly softening across most calibres. Over the past month, Indian Kabuli chickpeas (New Delhi FOB) have eased by roughly 6–7% in USD terms across the larger counts, while Mexican 12 mm product has slipped by about 7% from late February. Converted into EUR and indexed to today’s FX, this translates to Indian 12 mm Kabuli broadly trading in the low-to-mid 0.89–0.92 EUR/kg range FOB, and Mexican 12 mm around 1.19–1.20 EUR/kg, sustaining Mexico’s traditional premium on larger sizes. The downward drift coincides with strong Indian export performance in 2025, robust Australian supply, and expectations of a good rabi harvest in April 2026 that are likely to curb India’s import needs from Australia by more than half in the 2025/26 marketing season.

Weather is adding an interesting twist rather than an immediate threat. New Delhi has just seen its hottest March in decades, with maximum temperatures running 7–10°C above normal and heat-wave to severe heat-wave conditions flagged for parts of north India, although this primarily affects late vegetative stages and logistics rather than the bulk of chickpea yield, as the crop is already nearing harvest. In Mexico’s key chickpea states such as Sinaloa and Sonora, March weather is seasonally warm and mostly dry, supportive of harvest and post-harvest operations rather than yield formation. Against this backdrop, export flows remain active: India retained its role as the world’s leading chickpea producer and a strong exporter in 2025, while Australian desi chickpeas have surged into South Asian markets, tempering any bullish impulses on global Kabuli prices. With local mandi and open-market prices for chana in India still elevated relative to pre-2024 levels, the current FOB softening looks more like a normalization from previous highs than the start of a deep bearish phase. Over the next three trading days, we expect further mild pressure on FOB quotes in both India and Mexico, with buyers holding back in anticipation of new-crop clarity and exporters remaining keen to move old-crop stocks before April’s rabi harvest data crystallise.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Latest FOB Price Snapshot (all in EUR/kg)

FX assumption for conversion: 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR (approximate for mid-March 2026). All listed prices are derived from provided USD data.

Region	Location	Origin	Product / Count	Calibre (mm)	Delivery	Last Price (USD/kg)	Last Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment	Last Update
IN	New Delhi	India	Chickpeas dried, count 42–44	12 mm	FOB	1.00 → 0.97	0.92 → 0.89	1.00 (2026‑03‑06)	-3.0	Soft / Bearish	2026‑03‑14
IN	New Delhi	India	Chickpeas dried, count 44–46	11 mm	FOB	0.97 → 0.94	0.89 → 0.86	0.97 (2026‑03‑06)	-3.1	Soft / Bearish	2026‑03‑14
IN	New Delhi	India	Chickpeas dried, count 46–48	10 mm	FOB	0.94 → 0.91	0.86 → 0.84	0.94 (2026‑03‑06)	-3.2	Soft	2026‑03‑14
IN	New Delhi	India	Chickpeas dried, count 58–60	9 mm	FOB	0.90 → 0.87	0.83 → 0.80	0.90 (2026‑03‑06)	-3.3	Soft	2026‑03‑14
IN	New Delhi	India	Chickpeas dried, count 60–62	8 mm	FOB	0.88 → 0.85	0.81 → 0.78	0.88 (2026‑03‑06)	-3.4	Soft	2026‑03‑14
MX	Mexico City	Mexico	Chickpeas dried, count 42–44	12 mm	FOB	1.33 → 1.30	1.22 → 1.20	1.33 (2026‑03‑06)	-2.3	Soft	2026‑03‑14
MX	Mexico City	Mexico	Chickpeas dried, count 75–80	8 mm	FOB	0.85 → 0.83	0.78 → 0.76	0.85 (2026‑03‑06)	-2.4	Soft	2026‑03‑14

Key Price Signals

• India New Delhi FOB Kabuli (12 mm): easing from ~0.92 to ~0.89 EUR/kg over the last week, extending a gradual decline from mid-February highs near 0.96 EUR/kg equivalent.
• Mexico 12 mm Kabuli: slipping from ~1.27 EUR/kg in mid-February to ~1.20 EUR/kg now, but still holding a ~30–35% premium to Indian 12 mm FOB.
• Smaller calibres (8–10 mm) in both origins show similar percentage declines, suggesting broad-based softening rather than calibre-specific dislocation.
• Market sentiment: mildly bearish in both IN and MX, driven by expectations of ample rabi supply in India and competitive Australian volumes in Asia and the Middle East.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

India (IN)

• Production & exports: India remains the world’s largest chickpea producer with output around 12–13.5 million tonnes annually and recorded its second-highest chickpea export volume in 2025, driven by Kabuli shipments.
• Import dynamics: A much better domestic rabi crop expected for harvest in April 2026 is likely to cut India’s chickpea imports from Australia by over 50% in the coming marketing season (Nov 2025–Oct 2026), a clear bearish factor for international prices.
• Domestic prices: Open-market and mandi data show chana/kabuli prices still elevated versus pre-2024, but below the inflationary spike of 2024 when poor weather cut yields.
• Stocks: Trade chatter from western India (e.g. Gujarat) indicates substantial Kabuli stocks on offer at competitive prices, underlining comfortable nearby availability.

Mexico (MX)

• Export orientation: Mexico is a key Kabuli chickpea exporter into Mediterranean and Middle Eastern markets. Export values from Mexico to the EU and MENA have grown over recent seasons, closely tracking global pulses demand.
• Competitive landscape: Mexican Kabuli competes directly with larger calibre Indian and Turkish product; the current ~30% EUR premium over Indian 12 mm reflects quality perception, freight differentials, and specific regional demand.
• Nearby demand: Global pulses consumption remains firm, but buyers are increasingly price-sensitive after the 2024 price spike, favouring origin flexibility and shorter positions.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

Macro & Cross-Commodity Context

• Grain and oilseed futures (corn, soy, wheat) have recently corrected lower on technical selling, slightly easing feed and competing acreage price ratios and reducing the immediate need for a strong premium in pulses to secure acreage.
• Global chickpea demand is forecast to grow modestly (~1.3% CAGR to 2035), with India, Turkey and Mexico remaining central players on the supply side.

India: Policy & Trade

• Tariff environment: India has maintained a flexible approach to pulse imports, using duty-free windows (notably for peas and chana) to dampen domestic inflation. Current policy is still accommodative through March 2026, but expectations of a large rabi crop raise the risk of future tightening, especially if prices fall towards MSP-like benchmarks.
• Export momentum: 2025 saw very strong Indian chickpea exports, especially of Kabuli, which has supported FOB values even as local supply improved.

Global Trade Highlights

• Australia’s chickpea crop for the current year is estimated around 1.6 million tonnes, with India expected to take 0.8–1.0 million tonnes and Pakistan and Bangladesh also strong buyers. This is a structural bearish backdrop for international prices, especially for desi but indirectly for Kabuli as well.
• Indian imports of dried chickpeas in May–Oct 2025 fell about 70% year-on-year, reflecting improved domestic harvests and high stocks, another factor capping any sharp price rally.

🌦 Weather Outlook & Yield Implications (IN, MX)

India – New Delhi & North Indian Belt (IN)

• Current pattern: North India, including Delhi, has just experienced its hottest March in ~50 years, with maximum temperatures 7.6–10.4°C above normal (36–38°C range).
• Next 3 days (16–18 March 2026): Forecasts point to continued dry, very warm conditions in Delhi and surrounding plains, with only weak western disturbances.
• Impact on chickpeas:
  • Most chickpea in north India is at late pod-filling to maturity; heat stress now can slightly reduce seed size but major yield formation is largely complete.
  • Dry, hot conditions facilitate harvest and post-harvest drying, potentially improving quality for Kabuli exporters around New Delhi and Gujarat, though there is some risk of shrivelling on late-sown fields.

Mexico – Northwestern Chickpea Areas (MX)

• Climatic setting: Key Mexican chickpea regions such as Sinaloa and Sonora typically see warm, dry conditions in March, favourable for harvest and pre-summer logistics.
• Next 3 days (16–18 March 2026): No major storm systems are indicated for northwest Mexico; conditions are seasonally hot with limited rainfall, supportive of export loading programs out of Pacific ports.
• Impact on chickpeas:
  • Weather is neutral-to-supportive for quality and logistics; no apparent yield threat is priced into the MX FOB market at present.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	Role	Est. Production (Mt)	Recent Trend / Note
India	Largest producer & major exporter	~12–13.5	Strong 2025 exports; large 2026 rabi crop expected, easing import demand.
Australia	Key desi exporter	~1.6	Exports to India/Pak/Bangladesh robust; major competitor on price.
Mexico	Premium Kabuli exporter	<1	Targeting Mediterranean/MENA markets; commands quality premium over Indian FOB.
Turkey & Others	Regional suppliers	Smaller	Provide localized supply; price takers in current environment.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Outlook (All in EUR/kg FOB)

Methodological Note

Short-term forecasts are based on: (1) the provided FOB time series for Feb–Mar 2026; (2) current market fundamentals and web‑sourced trade/weather context; and (3) an assumption of no abrupt policy shocks over the next three trading days.

India – New Delhi FOB (IN)

Product	Calibre	Spot 14 Mar 2026 (EUR/kg)	Forecast 16 Mar	Forecast 17 Mar	Forecast 18 Mar	Bias
Kabuli, count 42–44	12 mm	0.89	0.88–0.89	0.88	0.87–0.88	Mildly lower
Kabuli, count 44–46	11 mm	0.86	0.85–0.86	0.85	0.84–0.85	Mildly lower
Kabuli, count 46–48	10 mm	0.84	0.83–0.84	0.83	0.82–0.83	Mildly lower
Kabuli, count 58–60	9 mm	0.80	0.79–0.80	0.79	0.78–0.79	Mildly lower
Kabuli, count 60–62	8 mm	0.78	0.77–0.78	0.77	0.76–0.77	Mildly lower

Mexico – Mexico City FOB (MX)

Product	Calibre	Spot 14 Mar 2026 (EUR/kg)	Forecast 16 Mar	Forecast 17 Mar	Forecast 18 Mar	Bias
Kabuli, count 42–44	12 mm	1.20	1.19–1.20	1.18–1.19	1.18	Mildly lower
Kabuli, count 75–80	8 mm	0.76	0.75–0.76	0.75	0.74–0.75	Mildly lower

💼 Trading Outlook (Price‑Driven)

• Short‑term bias (3–5 days): Mildly bearish in both India and Mexico, with incremental downside of 1–2% likely as exporters adjust offers ahead of India’s rabi chickpea harvest and as Australian supply remains prominent in South Asia.
• Buyers (importers / processors):
  • Consider staggered buying for Kabuli 12 mm from both IN and MX; wait for dips towards the lower end of the forecast ranges (0.87–0.88 EUR/kg IN; 1.18 EUR/kg MX) before locking larger volumes.
  • For price‑sensitive destinations, favour Indian origin for larger sizes given the substantial discount to Mexican product.
• Sellers (farmers / exporters):
  • Indian exporters with nearby stocks should remain flexible on premiums over domestic mandi prices, as any post‑harvest government policy tightening or MSP intervention could cap upside later in the season.
  • Mexican shippers may need to shade offers slightly to stay competitive against Indian and Australian supply, especially for standard 8–10 mm calibres.
• Risk factors to monitor (beyond 3 days):
  • Final India rabi chickpea yield and any revision of pulse import duties or export restrictions.
  • Weather anomalies (late heatwaves or storms) in remaining chickpea areas in IN and MX, though current 3‑day horizon looks benign.
  • Macro shocks to freight or FX that could alter EUR‑denominated competitiveness between origins.