Soy Complex Firms as Futures Rebound; Chinese and Black Sea Basis Diverge

Soybean markets are firmer today, with the CBOT soy complex rebounding led by front-month beans, oil and meal, while physical premiums in China move higher and Black Sea values consolidate. The forward curve remains only mildly inverted, suggesting a stable to slightly tighter balance into mid‑2027. Soybeans are entering the end of the U.S. harvest with renewed buying in futures and solid crush margins. Nearby CBOT soybean contracts are up around 0.9–1.0% versus the previous close, soy oil and soymeal are also higher, indicating strong product-led support. In the physical market, Chinese FOB prices for both conventional and organic origins have moved up, while Ukrainian GMO‑free soybeans and FOB values out of Odesa have stabilized after recent weakness, pointing to a more two‑tiered global price structure.

Prices

CBOT soybeans for January 2027 trade last at 1,231.75 US‑cent/bu, up 12.75 cents on the day (+1.05%), with nearby November 2026 at 1,234.25 US‑cent/bu, up 7.25 cents (+0.59%). The May 2027 contract follows at 1,243.75 US‑cent/bu (+11.25), highlighting a modestly firmer forward structure across the first half of 2027.

Soy oil futures are also higher: December 2026 stands at 63.77 US‑cent/lb (+0.35, +0.55%), while May 2027 is at 65.01 US‑cent/lb (+0.38, +0.59%). Soymeal strengthens in parallel, with December 2026 at USD 328.40/short ton (+3.00, +0.92%) and January 2027 at USD 326.40/short ton (+0.87%). The synchronized gains in oil and meal confirm that the current move is crush‑driven rather than beans‑only.

On the physical side, latest quotations in EUR/kg show Chinese FOB values firming: conventional yellow soybeans from Beijing are indicated at EUR 0.79/kg FOB, unchanged from the previous quote, while organic yellow soybeans from Beijing stand higher at EUR 0.91/kg FOB (up from EUR 0.90/kg). U.S. No. 2 soybeans FOB Washington D.C. last stand at EUR 0.55/kg, stable versus the previous update, keeping the U.S. Gulf/Mid‑Atlantic competitive into key import markets.

In the Black Sea, Ukrainian GMO‑free soybeans CPT Odesa are most recently assessed at EUR 0.387/kg (steady versus the previous day), while Ukrainian soybeans FOB Odesa were last quoted at EUR 0.335/kg, slightly above late‑October levels. The relative stability in Ukrainian values contrasts with firming Chinese premiums, illustrating regional divergence between supply‑heavy Black Sea origins and more demand‑driven Asian basis.

Supply & Demand

The upward move in CBOT futures across beans, meal and oil points to a market reassessing demand strength rather than reacting to a single weather shock. Rising soymeal prices into early 2027, with March 2027 at 327.60 USD/short ton and July 2027 at 333.90 USD/short ton, indicate continued robust feed demand and firm crush margins, supporting higher bean usage in the months ahead.

Chinese DCE No. 1 soybeans for January 2027 close at 5,229 CNY/t (+0.17%), with nearby March and May 2027 also marginally higher. This gentle firming in domestic Chinese futures aligns with stronger FOB Beijing prices in EUR, suggesting that internal demand and possibly cautious stock rebuilding are underpinning Asian import requirements. In contrast, steady Ukrainian CPT and FOB levels point to ample exportable supplies from the Black Sea, with logistics and geopolitical risks already largely priced in.

Fundamentals & Weather

The parallel gains in soy oil and meal underline strong crushing economics: December 2026 soy oil at 63.77 US‑cent/lb and soymeal at USD 328.40/short ton leave room for crushers to pay up for beans without compressing margins excessively. The forward structure, with May and July 2027 soy oil around 65.01–65.20 US‑cent/lb and soymeal July 2027 at USD 333.90/short ton, signals expectations of persistent product demand, especially from feed and biofuel sectors.

In China, the firm DCE curve into mid‑2027 (January to September 2027 contracts mostly in the 5,229–5,344 CNY/t range) reflects a balanced but not oversupplied outlook. Stable to slightly higher domestic futures, together with rising organic and conventional FOB prices in Beijing, point to tighter availability of high‑quality beans and a willingness among buyers to secure coverage forward. Meanwhile, Ukrainian prices consolidating just above recent lows suggest that the downside from harvest pressure is largely exhausted, with further weakness limited unless macro sentiment deteriorates significantly.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the next few sessions, the soy complex is likely to remain supported as futures react to improved crush margins and the firmer tone in Chinese and domestic U.S. demand indicators. The modest inversion in the CBOT soybean curve from November 2026 through May 2027 argues against a deep surplus, but also does not yet point to acute tightness, leaving room for weather or export shocks to drive further volatility.

• Importers: Use current stability in Black Sea values (Ukrainian GMO‑free at about EUR 0.387/kg CPT Odesa) to extend nearby coverage, while staggering purchases in China where FOB Beijing has firmed.
• Crushers: With soymeal (Dec 2026 at USD 328.40/short ton) and soy oil (Dec 2026 at 63.77 US‑cent/lb) both higher, locking in crush margins via product hedges against bean purchases looks attractive on further dips.
• Producers: The rebound in CBOT beans toward 1,230–1,245 US‑cent/bu for Jan–May 2027 provides an opportunity to incrementally price a portion of 2027 output, especially in regions with stable physical premiums.

Near term (3‑day) we expect CBOT soybean futures to trade with a slightly firmer bias, soymeal to remain well supported on feed demand, and soy oil to track broader vegetable oil and biofuel sentiment. In the physical market, Chinese FOB premiums are likely to stay firm to slightly higher, while Ukrainian and U.S. FOB indications should remain broadly stable, with only minor basis adjustments around nearby demand.