Soybean Futures Ease from Highs as Crush Stays Firm and Weather Risk Lingers
Soybean futures edge lower along the 2026–27 curve while soymeal holds firm and soyoil inches up. Overview of CBOT, DCE, physical prices and near‑term outlook.
Prices
Along the CBOT soybean curve, most active contracts on 4 August 2026 show modest day‑on‑day declines of around 0.2%, after a stronger performance in July:
- Nov 2026 CBOT soybeans last at 1,190.25 USc/bu (−2.00 c; −0.17% vs. previous close).
- Jan 2027 at 1,205.00 USc/bu (−2.00 c; −0.17%).
- Jul 2027 at 1,220.00 USc/bu (−1.75 c; −0.14%).
The forward curve from late‑2026 into 2028 is gently backwardated: nearby 2026/27 contracts trade around 1,190–1,220 USc/bu, while 2028–29 positions ease towards the mid‑1,100s USc/bu, suggesting expectations of comfortable medium‑term supply.
In the product markets, CBOT soyoil is marginally higher across 2026/27, with nearby Dec 2026 around 68.25 USc/lb (+0.11 c; +0.16%), while soymeal is slightly softer in the same tenors (Dec 2026 at 321.20 USD/short ton; −0.12%). This mix remains consistent with reports of a healthy soybean crush margin near late July, underpinned by robust meal and oil values.
Physical market snapshot (indicative, converted to EUR)
Based on recent offers (FOB/CPT) and an indicative EUR/USD rate of 1.09, current soybean prices translate approximately as follows:
Physical markets thus confirm a modest softening of U.S. origin since early July, while Ukrainian and Indian beans have edged slightly higher or held firm, maintaining their competitiveness into Mediterranean and Asian destinations.
Supply & Demand
USDA’s mid‑2026 oilseeds outlook points to broadly comfortable fundamentals. Global soybean production for 2025/26 is projected at a record level led by Brazil and the U.S., with Brazil’s crop seen around 178 million tonnes on record planted area and slightly higher yields.
In the United States, planting for marketing year 2026/27 proceeded ahead of schedule. By early June 2026, 92% of the soybean area was planted, above the 5‑year average, and emergence was also ahead, though the share of the crop rated good‑to‑excellent was modestly below last year. About a quarter of U.S. soybean fields were under some degree of drought, introducing yield and quality uncertainty despite the optimistic acreage base.
Chinese demand remains a key driver, with strong imports required to service feed and food use as domestic production lags consumption. Brazilian exporters continue to price aggressively into China, supported by a weaker real and large on‑farm stocks, while U.S. exports increasingly rely on seasonal windows and quality premiums.
Weather & Regional Outlook
For early August, U.S. Midwest weather remains the main near‑term price risk, as soybeans enter key pod‑setting and filling stages. Earlier in the season, dry May conditions accelerated planting, while subsequent rainfall supported emergence; however, drought coverage expanded and traders remain sensitive to any further moisture deficits or heat spikes during August.
In Brazil, the bulk of the 2025/26 soybean harvest is complete and yields have generally met or exceeded expectations in major states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás and parts of MATOPIBA, despite localized issues from irregular rainfall and excessive moisture. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 planting cycle later this year, current projections still assume normal weather and support another large Brazilian crop, reinforcing the idea of a well‑supplied global balance.
Fundamentals & Crush
The futures and product structure underline a still-attractive crush margin. Despite the small pullback in soybean futures along the 2026–27 strip, soymeal prices for key contracts (Dec 2026 around 321.20 USD/short ton) remain firm, and soyoil futures are slightly higher on the day, reflecting good downstream demand from feed and veg‑oil sectors.
Recent market commentary indicates crush margins near 2.8 USD/bu in late July, with meal and oil values both contributing. This supports sustained processing activity, which in turn caps downside for soybeans even as the forward curve signals adequate supply. On the other hand, ample Brazilian availability and competitive Black Sea and Chinese offers temper rallies by providing alternative origins for importers.
Trading Outlook (next 2–4 weeks)
- Bias: Sideways to slightly bearish in EUR terms, with nearby CBOT futures having eased modestly and physical offers from major origins still competitive.
- Key upside risk: Hot, dry August weather in the U.S. Midwest triggering a downgrade in crop condition ratings or a lower yield outlook could quickly re‑inflate weather premium.
- Downside risk: Confirmation of record Brazilian output and smooth U.S. crop development into September, combined with strong crush, could pressure flat price while supporting product spreads.
- Strategy notes for buyers: Importers with Q4 2026 coverage still open may consider layering in modest additional hedges on minor dips, especially from Ukrainian and U.S. Gulf origins, while keeping flexibility for opportunistic spot purchases if weather remains benign.
- Strategy notes for sellers: Producers with unpriced 2026/27 beans might use current levels to advance sales selectively but retain some upside exposure via minimum‑price structures given U.S. weather and macro‑risk headlines.
3‑day directional view (in EUR)
- CBOT soybeans (EUR-equivalent): Slightly softer to range‑bound as markets digest ample global supply projections and await fresh U.S. crop ratings.
- FOB US & Brazil to EU/Asia: Stable to mildly weaker in EUR as futures consolidation offsets minor FX shifts.
- Black Sea & Ukraine (CPT/FOB): Firm tone in EUR, supported by logistical risk premia and recent small price upticks, but capped by competitive South American offers.