Soybeans ease as Midwest weather improves but export demand stays firm
CBOT soybeans ease on improved US Midwest weather, while Brazilian exports and Asian demand keep the market underpinned. Short-term outlook slightly softer.
Prices
On 12 August 2026, CBOT soybean futures across the 2026/27 curve are modestly higher versus the previous day but remain in a relatively tight band around 1,160–1,215 USc/bu. The front liquid contract November 2026 settles at 1,176.25 USc/bu, up 7.50 cents (+0.6%). Deferred months into mid‑2027 trade only about 30–40 cents above spot, indicating a shallow carry and balanced medium‑term supply expectations.
Soybean oil is firmer, with actively traded December 2026 around 68.4 USc/lb, up roughly 0.25–0.30 cents on the day, while soybean meal gains 2–3 USD/short ton across nearby contracts, with December 2026 near 313 USD/t. In the physical market, indicative FOB offers (converted approximately to EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.91 EUR) place standard Chinese yellow soybeans near 0.76 EUR/kg FOB Beijing and US No. 2 soybeans around 0.65 EUR/kg FOB Washington D.C., pointing to only slight week‑on‑week softening in international basis levels.
Supply & Demand
US weather is the main short‑term driver. After a hot, relatively dry July, the outlook for the coming week in the Midwest turns significantly more benign, with milder temperatures and ample rainfall in key soybean areas during the critical pod‑setting phase. This improvement reduces the risk of yield losses and has prompted selling in Chicago as funds unwind part of their weather premium.
On the demand side, import flows into the EU are clearly weaker year on year. Total EU soybean imports are reported at 1.114 million tonnes, down 32% versus the same period last year. Soybean meal imports are also 28% lower at 1.731 million tonnes, and palm oil imports have fallen 20% to 476,000 tonnes. This points to softer European oilseed and meal demand or stronger reliance on domestic and alternative origins, which tempers global demand growth but has so far not led to aggressive discounting in CBOT futures.
In contrast, Asian demand is resilient. The USDA reports private sales of 136,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year and 180,000 tonnes of soybean meal to the Philippines. In Brazil, export demand remains robust: ANEC has raised its August soybean export forecast to 10.88 million tonnes, about 34% above the 8.11 million tonnes shipped in August 2025. This underscores Brazil’s role as the key incremental supplier and caps upside for US export share, even as new US sales emerge.
Fundamentals & Products
The soybean complex structure currently favors the crush. Futures prices for soybean meal, trading in the low‑ to mid‑300 USD/short ton range, and soybean oil around the high‑60s USc/lb, have gained 0.3–1.1% on the day, outpacing the modest 0.5–0.7% rally in beans. This relative strength in products supports processing margins and incentivizes crush utilization where logistics and capacity allow.
Chinese Dalian No. 1 soybean futures are firmer by about 0.5–0.7% across the curve, with September 2026 around 4,865 CNY/t, confirming that local prices in China are not collapsing despite lower EU imports. Together with firm Brazilian export programs and active buying from Asia, this suggests that global soybean demand remains solid, even if regional flows are being reshuffled between the EU, China, and Southeast Asia.
At the same time, the shallow carry on CBOT soybeans and steady open interest above 495,000 contracts in the November 2026 contract indicate that speculative positioning remains significant. This adds volatility potential around further weather updates and official crop estimates, especially if subsequent forecasts deviate from the currently benign outlook.
Weather Outlook (Key Regions)
For the US Midwest, the next seven days are expected to bring below‑to‑near‑normal temperatures and frequent showers across core soybean belts including Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Such conditions are considered ideal for soybeans in the pod‑filling stage and should help stabilize or even slightly improve yield expectations versus early‑August fears.
In Brazil, the old‑crop harvest is effectively completed and the focus is on export logistics rather than weather. For upcoming planting later in the year, current guidance does not indicate immediate threats, so Brazilian supply expectations for the next export window remain robust. In China, no major weather shocks are currently impacting the new‑crop soybean outlook, keeping domestic balances broadly in line with expectations.
Trading Outlook
- Short‑term bias: Slightly bearish to sideways for CBOT soybeans as improved US weather reduces yield risk and encourages additional fund selling on rallies.
- Crush margins: Product strength versus beans argues for maintaining or modestly increasing crush hedges; processors may lock in current margins using long meal/oil and short beans structures.
- Importers: Feed and food importers in Europe and Asia could use current price weakness to extend coverage into Q4 2026 and early 2027, while keeping some flexibility in case of further US yield gains.
- Producers: US and Black Sea growers may consider layering in additional forward sales on weather‑driven rebounds, as strong Brazilian export competition and soft EU imports limit upside.
3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)
- CBOT soybeans (EUR/t, front months): Mild downward to sideways bias as markets digest better US weather and monitor export sales.
- FOB Brazil (EUR/t): Stable with a slight firm tone, supported by heavy August export line‑up and active Chinese demand.
- FOB Black Sea / Ukraine (EUR/t): Broadly steady; competitive pricing versus US and Brazil is likely to remain necessary to sustain demand.