CBOT soybeans, meal and oil trade moderately higher while Black Sea and China FOB/CPT soybean prices firm. Outlook steady to slightly bullish into the WASDE.
Prices
CBOT soybeans are firmer across the forward curve. January 2027 is last quoted at 1,193.00 USc/bu, up 4.75 cents on the day (+0.40%), with May 2027 at 1,211.00 USc/bu (+6.50 cents, +0.54%) and July 2027 at 1,218.50 USc/bu (+6.75 cents, +0.56%). Nearby November 2026 trades at 1,187.00 USc/bu, 4.75 cents higher (+0.40%).
Products confirm a mildly bullish complex: December 2026 soymeal stands at 323.40 USD/short ton (+2.70, +0.84%), while December 2026 soy oil prints 62.05 USc/lb (+0.02, +0.03%). The 2027 soy oil strip is slightly upward sloping, with May 2027 at 63.25 USc/lb and July 2027 at 63.54 USc/lb, suggesting modestly stronger deferred crush value support.
| Product | Key Contract | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Soybeans | Jan 27 | 1,193.00 USc/bu | +4.75 | +0.40% |
| CBOT Soymeal | Dec 26 | 323.40 USD/short ton | +2.70 | +0.84% |
| CBOT Soybean Oil | Dec 26 | 62.05 USc/lb | +0.02 | +0.03% |
In the cash market, Ukrainian soybeans in Odesa have strengthened: CPT GMO-free soybeans are quoted at 0.387 EUR/kg (latest update 6 November) versus 0.383 EUR/kg on 4 November, while standard FOB soybeans from Odesa improved to 0.335 EUR/kg from 0.327 EUR/kg. In the US, No. 2 soybeans FOB Washington D.C. stand at 0.55 EUR/kg (last change 5 November), and Chinese yellow soybeans FOB Beijing are at 0.79 EUR/kg for conventional and 0.90 EUR/kg for organic.
Supply & Demand
Futures and domestic Chinese prices are underpinned by resilient import flows. China imported 93.48 million tonnes of soybeans in January–October 2026, indicating continued strong demand for both meal and oil, even as some crushers struggle with negative margins and high inventories. Recent USDA commentary highlights rising Chinese crush and record soybean oil exports in MY 2026/27, reinforcing demand for beans and products.
On the supply side, global attention is on the new South American crop. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing within the usual mid-September to late-November window, with El Niño-linked rainfall variability creating localized delays but no broad-based production shock at this stage. Argentina’s soybean plantings are now underway in core areas with adequate soil moisture, entering the season from a markedly better starting point than previous drought years.
In the US, the 2026 harvest is largely priced in and attention has shifted to today’s November WASDE update, historically an event with average volatility for soybeans and a slightly higher probability of a negative price reaction if USDA lifts yields or ending stocks beyond expectations. Export commitments remain below typical seasonal pace, which may temper bullish enthusiasm if domestic crush is not revised higher.
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Futures Curve & Regional Basis
The CBOT soybean forward curve is gently upward sloping from November 2026 into mid-2027, signalling modest carry but no pronounced surplus. The similar, slightly firmer structure in soymeal and soy oil underscores balanced fundamentals, with products offering enough value to sustain crush margins without attracting aggressive new selling.
Physical price behaviour aligns with this picture. Ukrainian FOB and CPT values in Odesa have rebounded from late-October lows, while Chinese FOB quotations in Beijing have trended higher since mid-October for both organic and conventional origins. Indian sortex-clean soybeans in New Delhi remain comparatively high at 0.85 EUR/kg, reflecting firm domestic demand and limited export aggression. US FOB quotes are steady at 0.55 EUR/kg, consistent with futures levels around 11.80–12.10 USD/bu.
Short-Term Outlook & Weather
Over the next few sessions, the key driver will be the November WASDE release on 10 November. Market commentary suggests traders are braced for a possible upward adjustment to US soybean yields and carryout, but the modest pre-report rally indicates positioning is relatively cautious rather than euphoric. Unless USDA surprises with a significantly larger stocks figure, downside from current levels may be limited by persistent import demand and ongoing weather risk in South America.
Weather forecasts for central and northern Brazil in mid-November point to continued variability in rainfall tied to El Niño, with episodes of drier-than-normal conditions that could slow planting in some Mato Grosso and Cerrado areas, while southern Brazil and parts of Argentina retain adequate to slightly above-normal moisture. At this stage, the market is more attuned to the risk of localized delays rather than a broad crop failure, keeping risk premiums contained but preventing a pronounced sell-off.
Trading Outlook
- Producers / Sellers: Use the current firmness in CBOT and the recent recovery in Black Sea and China FOB/CPT prices to scale into incremental sales on strength, particularly in nearby and early-2027 positions, while retaining some exposure to South American weather and potential WASDE surprises.
- Crushers: The gently upward-sloping soy complex curve and firm product values favour maintaining coverage of beans through at least mid-2027; consider locking in meal and oil margins on rallies rather than chasing deferred bean weakness.
- Importers: Chinese and other Asian buyers may look to stagger purchases, using any post-WASDE dips as opportunities, given still-robust structural demand and the unresolved weather risk in Brazil and Argentina.
3-Day Directional View (Futures & Key Cash Hubs)
- CBOT soybeans (nearby strip): Bias slightly higher to sideways ahead of and immediately after the WASDE, with intraday volatility around headline numbers.
- Ukrainian soybeans (FOB/CPT Odesa): Tone firm to steady; recent EUR-based gains likely hold as long as futures maintain current levels.
- US FOB (No. 2, Washington D.C.) and China FOB (Beijing): Expected mostly steady, with modest upward risk if South American weather turns drier or if WASDE avoids a bearish surprise.