Soybeans Firm as China Re-Engages and Record U.S. Crop Looms

Soybean prices are firming on both futures and physical markets as China returns as a major buyer and a record U.S. crop is expected, keeping the market well supplied but preventing a deeper price correction. The forward curve is mildly upward sloping, reflecting comfortable nearby availability and expectations of stronger demand into 2026/27. Soybean markets are currently balancing two powerful forces: a sizeable U.S. supply increase and an acceleration in import demand, led by China and supported by Egypt, the EU and other buyers. After an 11% drop in U.S. exports in 2025/26 driven by a 45% fall in Chinese purchases, non‑China destinations still grew by 9%, underscoring the resilience of global demand. Now China has fulfilled its 12 million‑tonne purchase commitment and has shifted to annual imports of around 25 million tonnes from the U.S., within a record global import program of roughly 115 million tonnes. This is underpinning prices across futures and cash markets despite ample supply expectations.

Prices

On the CBOT, the main soybean futures contracts on 14 August 2026 trade in a tight, slightly rising structure. Nearby August 2026 stands around 1,168 USc/bu, while the key new-crop November 2026 is at 1,188.75 USc/bu and January 2027 at 1,203.75 USc/bu. Farther out, March–July 2027 climbs to roughly 1,211–1,223 USc/bu, before easing modestly into late 2027–2028, signaling expectations of strong but manageable demand along with ample forward supply.

In soy products, CBOT soyoil trades near 68–69 USc/lb on the front 2026 contracts, slightly lower on the very long-dated months, indicating only moderate product‑side bullishness. Soymeal futures around USD 309–326 per short ton across 2026–2028 are trending mildly higher along the curve, consistent with robust feed demand. Chinese DCE No.1 soybeans are firmer as well, with September 2026 settling near CNY 4,863/t and later months pushing above CNY 5,000/t, confirming a stronger internal price environment in China.

Supply & Demand

For 2026/27, U.S. soybean exports are projected to grow by about 5%, enabled by stronger shipments to Egypt, the EU and other emerging markets as well as a normalization and expansion of trade with China. This recovery follows a difficult 2025/26 season, when overall U.S. exports fell 11% because Chinese purchases collapsed by 45%, even as exports to the rest of the world increased by 9%. The diversification of U.S. destinations helped cushion that shock and now provides a broader base for future growth.

China has re‑established itself as a central demand driver. It has already executed its 12 million‑tonne U.S. purchase commitment and transitioned to a regime of around 25 million tonnes of U.S. imports annually, in the context of a record total soybean import program of about 115 million tonnes. This reflects structural growth in protein and vegetable oil demand. At the same time, global consumption of soymeal and soyoil continues to outpace production growth, tightening the underlying balance even as headline supplies look comfortable.

On the supply side, the United States is heading towards a record soybean harvest of roughly 4.5 billion bushels, supported by an expanded planted area of 85.4 million acres. This positions the U.S. as a critical balancing supplier, especially if South American crops underperform. However, with world demand advancing faster than production over the medium term, the market is increasingly sensitive to any weather or logistics disruptions in major origins.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Weather in the U.S. Midwest during August is critical for pod filling and final yield realization. Current forecasts point to generally favorable conditions in key soybean states, with near‑normal temperatures and scattered rainfall, which broadly support the expectation of a large crop. Localized dryness pockets remain a risk, but so far there is no clear evidence of widespread yield loss that would significantly challenge the record‑harvest narrative.

In China, domestic production plays a smaller role in total supply, but stable to slightly improved weather in northeastern growing regions supports local output and helps moderate import timing pressures. Overall, weather risk is currently seen more as a potential upside catalyst for prices rather than a base‑case driver, given today’s benign outlook.

Fundamentals & Spreads

The CBOT futures curve from August 2026 through mid‑2027 shows a mild contango, with prices rising by around 55 USc/bu from nearby August 2026 (≈1,168 USc/bu) to July 2027 (≈1,223.5 USc/bu). This structure is consistent with ample nearby availability and expectations for slightly stronger demand or tighter stocks further forward. Beyond late 2027 into 2028 and 2029, prices soften modestly again, reflecting expectations that record‑level plantings and productivity gains could catch up with demand growth.

Product markets confirm healthy underlying use. Soymeal futures across 2026–2028 are on a gentle uptrend, underpinned by feed demand and livestock sector resilience, while soyoil holds in a relatively narrow band, suggesting that biofuel and food oil demand are providing a floor but not pushing the market into shortage. Meanwhile, Chinese futures around CNY 4,900–5,000/t indicate a positive margin backdrop for crushers, incentivizing continued import pull even with firm international prices.

Physically, price indications in EUR per kilogram show a clear origin hierarchy. Indian and Chinese origins command a premium—near or above 0.85–0.90 EUR/kg for specialty or sortex‑clean and organic lots—while U.S. No.2 at about 0.63 EUR/kg and Ukrainian beans around 0.38–0.40 EUR/kg anchor the lower end of the range. This spread structure points to strong demand for higher‑spec and certifiable supplies while highlighting the competitiveness of Black Sea origin into price‑sensitive destinations.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 1–3 weeks): With record U.S. crop expectations largely priced in and Chinese demand clearly improving, flat price risk is skewed modestly to the upside from current levels, especially on nearby CBOT contracts and high‑spec physicals.
• Medium‑term (through 2026/27): As U.S. exports recover by about 5% and global imports hit records, any negative weather surprise in the Americas could quickly tighten balances and steepen the curve. End‑users may consider layering in coverage on breaks rather than waiting for materially lower prices.
• Relative value: The pronounced discount for Ukrainian and other Black Sea origin soybeans versus U.S. and Asian offers presents an opportunity for price‑sensitive buyers, while premiums for organic and GMO‑free material look structurally supported by steady demand.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR‑based)

• CBOT‑linked soybeans (EUR‑equivalent): Slightly firmer bias as futures hold recent gains and demand signals remain constructive.
• FOB U.S. Gulf / Atlantic (≈0.63 EUR/kg): Mostly steady to modestly higher, tracking CBOT and export sales activity.
• FOB China & India premiums (0.76–0.90 EUR/kg): Stable to slightly higher on strong crushing margins and limited nearby downside.
• Black Sea (≈0.38–0.40 EUR/kg): Broadly stable; competitive pricing likely persists barring logistics disruptions.