Soybeans Firm as Crush Margins and Brazilian Exports Underpin Prices

Soybean futures, oil and meal are edging higher but remain in a broad sideways range, supported by strong crush margins and brisk export demand rather than outright supply fears. Nearby contracts show modest gains along the forward curve, signaling a firm but not overheated market. Soy complex pricing currently reflects a well-supplied global balance sheet with record Brazilian exports and solid U.S. crop prospects, yet also robust demand from crushers and importers. CBOT soybean oil, meal and beans all posted small daily increases on July 23, while Dalian soybeans in China and physical FOB offers from China, India, Ukraine and the US are holding steady to slightly firmer. For now, the market is pricing comfort with 2026/27 supply, but tightness in logistics, uneven Northern Hemisphere weather and geopolitical risk in fertilizer and freight keep a risk premium in the curve.

Prices

Across the soy complex, futures are modestly higher day-on-day. Nearby CBOT soybean oil (Aug 2026) is trading around 76.1 USc/lb, up about 0.85% from the previous session, with similar 0.7–0.9% gains out to mid‑2027. Soybean meal Aug 2026 is near 332 USD/short ton, up 0.12%, and the forward strip through mid‑2027 shows small positive moves of roughly 0.1–0.2%.

CBOT soybeans (Aug 2026) last trade near 1,236.75 USc/bu, about 0.3% above the prior close; core liquid contracts from Nov 2026 through Jul 2027 are up around 0.1–0.2%, keeping the curve mildly upward sloping from roughly 1,240 to 1,263 USc/bu. On China's Dalian, No.1 soybeans for Sep 2026 settle around 4,715 CNY/t with only marginal daily gains (~0.1%), confirming a stable domestic tone.

In the physical market, recent FOB and CPT indications converted to EUR show a steady to slightly firmer picture: U.S. No.2 soybeans FOB (Washington D.C.) are roughly EUR 0.60–0.62/kg, Chinese yellow beans around EUR 0.70–0.75/kg depending on organic status, Indian sortex-clean beans about EUR 0.82–0.85/kg, and Ukrainian beans from Odesa in the EUR 0.33–0.37/kg range, with only minor week‑to‑week changes.

*Indicative, using recent EUR/USD and CNY/EUR rates.

Supply & Demand

Brazil remains the key supply anchor. Exporters' association ANEC recently raised its July soybean export projection to about 13.7–13.8 million tonnes, around 15% above last year and signaling very strong international demand for Brazilian beans. Secex data confirm June exports of roughly 14.5 million tonnes, a record for that month, underscoring Brazil’s dominant role in global flows.

Domestic Brazilian cash prices have firmed about 4% in July on the back of this demand, even as the country works through a record harvest. At the same time, USDA FAS maintains expectations for another record Brazilian soybean crop in 2026/27, suggesting that ample supply will continue into the new marketing year barring major weather disruptions.

On the demand side, global crush remains very attractive. Recent market intelligence puts the U.S. soybean crush margin close to USD 2.8 per bushel, with meal and oil values both contributing solidly – a key factor behind the resilience in both soybean oil and meal futures. Chinese import demand is strong, with Brazil widening its lead in China’s soybean market as U.S. shipments lag under the current trade regime.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the slight backwardation in soybean oil and the gently rising soybean curve indicate a market that is comfortable with current stocks but continues to price good crush margins and logistics risk. Modest daily increases across oil, meal and beans, alongside very high open interest in key contracts (e.g. over 500,000 contracts in Nov 2026 soybeans), point to active hedging by both producers and processors.

Weather in the U.S. Midwest and other Northern Hemisphere growing regions is mixed but not yet threatening enough to justify a pronounced weather premium. Uneven rainfall and episodes of heat have supported futures in recent sessions, yet yield prospects are still broadly aligned with early-season expectations according to recent analytical commentary. In Brazil, the main 2025/26 harvest is already behind the market, and focus is gradually shifting to new‑season planting and the availability of fertilizers and credit, with some added uncertainty linked to elevated geopolitical risk in the Middle East and global shipping.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Producers (U.S., Brazil, Black Sea): Use current firmness to add incremental hedges in the Nov 2026–Jul 2027 soybean futures window; crush margins and export demand support current price levels, but record Brazilian supply caps the upside unless U.S. weather deteriorates sharply.
• Importers (EU, MENA, Asia): Consider scaling in coverage on dips, particularly from Brazil and Ukraine where EUR‑denominated values remain attractive versus historical levels; avoid chasing short‑term rallies driven purely by weather headlines.
• Crushers: Strong soybean oil and meal board values relative to beans still favor maintaining or slightly increasing crush rates; lock in forward margins where nearby futures imply robust returns, but stay flexible around freight and basis risk.
• Speculative participants: The current environment favors range‑trading strategies: buy breaks toward the low end of the recent CBOT soybean range (~1,200 USc/bu) and lighten positions near recent highs (~1,260–1,280 USc/bu), with tight risk controls around key U.S. weather and export data releases.

3‑Day Regional Price Outlook (in EUR)

• CBOT soybeans (Aug/Nov 26, EUR/t): Bias slightly higher to sideways as strong Brazilian exports and firm crush margins offset benign U.S. weather; intraday volatility likely but no clear breakout signal.
• Brazil export parity (EUR/t): Expected to stay firm, supported by very heavy July shipment programs and brisk Chinese demand, though a stronger real or freight easing could cap gains.
• FOB China/India/Black Sea (EUR/kg): Prices to remain broadly stable with a mild upward tilt, reflecting steady international demand and only small recent adjustments in regional offers.