Soybeans firm up as India leads, US weather turns volatile

Soybean prices in the latest physical indications are moving higher across the main report regions, but the market is not rising for the same reason everywhere. India remains the premium origin in this dataset, with New Delhi FOB sortex-clean soybeans climbing again week on week, while U.S. FOB values also strengthened and Ukraine stayed comparatively cheap despite a modest recovery from late-February levels. The immediate takeaway is that the soybean market is being shaped by a split narrative: supportive nearby cash tone in selected origins, but still-heavy global fundamentals. On the one hand, USDA’s March 2026 oilseeds outlook points to larger world soybean production, higher ending stocks and slightly lower global exports, with Brazil’s crop lifted to 178.0 million tons and global ending stocks raised to 124.4 million tons. On the other hand, U.S. export sales remain active, with weekly soybean net sales for 2025/26 at 877,900 tons and exports above 1.1 million tons in the latest report, showing that demand has not disappeared. Weather adds a short-term layer of volatility: the U.S. Midwest faces a sharp temperature swing with storms followed by a freeze risk, India’s soybean belt is turning hot under dry skies, and southern Ukraine is set for mostly stable, cool conditions. For price direction over the next few sessions, that combination argues for a firmer tone in India, a weather-sensitive but still fundamentally capped U.S. market, and a mostly steady-to-slightly-firmer Ukraine market. In short, this is a price-led soybean report where cash market differentials and regional weather matter more in the next three days than any broad bullish global supply story.

📈 Prices

Origin	Specification	Location	Latest date	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous week (EUR/kg)	Weekly change	Sentiment
US	No. 2	Washington D.C. FOB	2026-03-13	€0.52	€0.51	+3.8%	Firm
IN	Sortex clean	New Delhi FOB	2026-03-13	€0.89	€0.87	+2.1%	Firm
UA	Standard	Odesa FOB	2026-03-13	€0.31	€0.31	0.0%	Stable
CN	Yellow	Beijing FOB	2026-03-12	€0.63	€0.61	+3.0%	Firm
CN	Yellow, organic	Beijing FOB	2026-03-12	€0.72	€0.70	+2.6%	Firm premium

Price note: Source prices appear to be in USD/kg and are converted approximately at 1 USD = 0.92 EUR for reporting consistency. The core focus regions are US, India and Ukraine.

• US: The strongest short-term acceleration in the dataset, rising from about €0.48/kg on 2026-02-28 to €0.52/kg on 2026-03-13.
• India: Still the highest-priced report origin, reflecting a structurally tighter and more quality-sensitive cash market.
• Ukraine: Remains the discount origin; flat week on week, but slightly above late-February lows.

🌍 Supply & Demand

Global soybean fundamentals remain broadly comfortable rather than tight. USDA’s March 2026 outlook shows 2025/26 global soybean production at 425.7 million tons, global soybean exports at 187.6 million tons, and global ending stocks at 124.4 million tons. That is a fundamentally bearish ceiling for rallies, especially because the increase in stocks is concentrated in large exporters including the United States and Brazil. Brazil’s crop was raised to 178.0 million tons on favorable weather, reinforcing competition into world export channels.

Still, demand is not absent. The latest U.S. export sales release dated March 12, 2026, covering the week ending March 5, reported soybean net sales of 877,900 tons for 2025/26 and exports of 1,112,600 tons, with China the largest destination in the shipment mix. That helps explain why U.S. cash indications have been able to rise even against heavier world balance sheets.

• Bearish macro driver: Large South American supply and higher global ending stocks.
• Supportive nearby driver: Active export movement and resilient meal/oil demand chains.
• Regional cash driver: India’s domestic oilseed complex remains relatively elevated versus export-origin Black Sea values.

📊 Fundamentals

Indicator	2025/26	Market implication
Global soybean production	425.7 mln t	Ample supply caps major upside
Global soybean exports	187.6 mln t	Trade still large, but not tightening
Global soybean ending stocks	124.4 mln t	Comfortable inventory backdrop
Brazil soybean production	178.0 mln t	Strong export competition for US/UA
Ukraine soybean production	6.0 mln t	Below 2024/25 record, but still above 5-year average
Ukraine soybean area	2.5 mln ha	Large footprint keeps Black Sea supply relevant

Ukraine remains an important secondary supplier. USDA country data show Ukraine’s 2025/26 soybean area at 2.5 million hectares and production at 6.0 million tons, below the prior year’s 7.2 million tons but still 29% above the five-year average in both area and production. That helps explain why Odesa FOB values remain low versus India and the United States.

🌦️ Weather outlook by region

🇺🇸 United States

Springfield, Illinois, a proxy for the U.S. Midwest soybean belt, shows a volatile four-day pattern: mild temperatures and wind, then showers/thunderstorms on Sunday, March 15, followed by a sharp cold snap on Monday, March 16, with temperatures falling below freezing. Because soybeans are not yet in the core reproductive season, this is not a direct yield threat, but it can slow early fieldwork, affect logistics, and temporarily support weather-premium buying in nearby cash and futures markets.

🇮🇳 India

Indore, a useful proxy for central India’s soybean zone, is forecast hot and dry through March 17, with highs near 36–37°C. This weather is not a planting-season yield event, but it is relevant for arrivals, storage conditions, and crusher procurement behavior. Hot, dry weather tends to support firmness in physical markets when sellers resist aggressive discounting and buyers maintain coverage. That aligns with India’s continued premium in the current price set.

🇺🇦 Ukraine

Odesa is expected to stay cool, mostly dry and stable through March 17, with highs around 7–10°C. That points to limited immediate weather stress and supports a steady export flow backdrop from Black Sea channels, assuming no major external disruption. In price terms, such conditions are more neutral than bullish and fit the flat week-on-week Odesa quote.

🚢 Regional trade flow and market context

• US: Export demand remains the key balancing force against large global supplies. Strong weekly shipments keep basis and FOB indications supported.
• India: The broader edible oils complex remains strategically important; CME itself highlighted South Asia as the world’s largest edible oils importing region when launching new South Asia vegetable oil futures. That underscores why India’s oilseed pricing often stays sensitive to edible oil arbitrage, crushing margins and import policy signals.
• Ukraine: Black Sea soybeans remain competitively priced. Even with production easing from last season’s record, Ukraine keeps enough exportable surplus to pressure premiums unless logistics or geopolitics tighten availability.

📌 Trading outlook

• Buyers in India: Cover nearby needs early; the market is already at a premium and hot weather supports seller confidence.
• US exporters and crushers: Watch weather-driven volatility, but do not over-chase rallies while global stocks remain comfortable.
• Black Sea buyers: Ukraine still offers the cheapest origin in this report; value remains favorable for short-term procurement.
• Speculative stance: Near-term bias is mildly supportive in cash, but rallies likely face resistance from large global supply estimates.
• Risk factor: Any surprise shift in export pace, Black Sea logistics, or South American shipment pressure could quickly reset price spreads.

📆 3-day regional price forecast

Region	Current spot reference (EUR/kg)	3-day view	Forecast range (EUR/kg)	Bias
US	€0.52	Weather volatility may keep prices supported, but global supply limits upside	€0.51-€0.54	Slightly firmer / volatile
India	€0.89	Hot, dry weather and tight nearby cash tone should keep market firm	€0.89-€0.92	Firm
Ukraine	€0.31	Stable weather and competitive export positioning suggest sideways trade	€0.31-€0.32	Stable to slightly firmer

Forecast methodology: These 3-day directional ranges are based on the latest reported physical prices in the dataset, short-term regional weather for IN, UA and US, and the broader global soybean balance-sheet context.