Soybeans Hold Firm as Futures Curve Softens Beyond 2027

Soybean benchmarks are mildly firmer today, with CBOT nearby futures and products edging higher, while the longer-dated curve continues to soften, pointing to comfortable forward supply. Chinese demand remains robust, but strong Brazilian flows and good North American crop conditions are keeping rallies in check. Soybeans are trading in a relatively tight range, with a modest upward bias in nearby CBOT beans, meal and oil. The futures structure shows slight strength in the front months but a clear discount further out to 2028–2029 in soybeans and especially soyoil, indicating expectations of ample medium‑term availability. China’s import appetite and crush forecasts remain solid, while Brazil and the US head toward another large combined crop under broadly favorable, if variable, weather. Regional cash markets from Ukraine to China are moving only marginally, suggesting balanced short‑term fundamentals.

Prices

On CBOT, August 2026 soybeans last trade around 1,195.5 USc/bu, up about 0.2% on the day, with November 2026 at 1,194.25 USc/bu and January 2027 at 1,208.25 USc/bu, all posting intraday gains of roughly 0.2–0.3% versus the prior close. Soymeal futures are also slightly firmer, with August 2026 near USD 317.9/t and December 2026 around USD 316.8/t, up 0.2% day‑on‑day.

Soyoil is extending a mild rebound at the front of the curve: August 2026 trades near 72.63 USc/lb, with a shallow downward slope toward mid‑2027 at about 69.30 USc/lb, after small daily gains around 0.1–0.3%. Beyond 2027, the soyoil strip weakens noticeably, with December 2028 near 62.57 USc/lb and December 2029 around 61.77 USc/lb, reflecting expectations of improved oilseed availability and softer vegetable oil premia over the long term.

In China, Dalian No.1 soybeans remain range‑bound: September 2026 closed near CNY 4,720/t and November 2026 around CNY 4,759/t, with only marginal losses of 0.0–0.1% on July 14 after modest gains earlier in the month.

Physical offers mirror the relatively steady futures backdrop. In Ukraine, GMO‑free soybeans CPT Odesa last traded near EUR 0.40/kg (EUR 400/t) in late June, softening slightly to about EUR 0.397/kg (EUR 397/t) by July 10, implying a narrow range‑bound market. FOB Odesa soybeans stand around EUR 0.366/kg (EUR 366/t), marginally above late‑June levels.

US No. 2 soybeans FOB (Washington D.C.) are quoted near EUR 0.65/kg (EUR 650/t), down from roughly EUR 700/t in early July, suggesting some pressure from strong competition and favorable US crop prospects. Indian sortex‑clean soybeans are indicated around EUR 0.89/kg (EUR 890/t), slightly off their early‑month peak, while Chinese yellow soybeans in Beijing hover near EUR 0.77–0.83/kg (EUR 770–830/t), reflecting firm domestic demand for both conventional and organic origins.

Supply & Demand

Global fundamentals remain broadly comfortable. USDA’s July oilseeds outlook points to slightly higher global soybean ending stocks in 2026/27, largely due to an improved Argentinian crop and solid output in Brazil and the US. Brazil is on track for another very large harvest, with national projections signalling a new record soybean crop in 2026, even if some southern states saw earlier weather‑related downgrades.

China is underpinning demand: customs data show June soybean imports at a record high for the month, driven by heavy Brazilian shipments and the clearance of delayed cargoes. The latest CASDE report and external analyses indicate China’s 2026/27 import and crush forecasts remain intact, suggesting sustained feed and oil demand despite slower growth in some livestock segments. Recent large US export sales to China, alongside indications of lower tariffs on US agricultural goods, reinforce the prospect of diversified sourcing between Brazil and the US.

In the US, crop progress data show soybean development running slightly ahead of average, with around half of the crop already blooming and nearly one‑fifth setting pods by mid‑July, under mostly adequate soil moisture. This, combined with the softening back end of the CBOT curve, signals that the market currently assigns a relatively low probability to a major US supply shock.

Weather Outlook

Short‑term forecasts for the US Midwest point to seasonally warm temperatures with pockets of above‑normal heat but generally adequate rainfall, supporting soybean flowering and early pod set in most areas. In Brazil, July is typically a drier off‑season month, and recent agro‑climatic bulletins highlight variable rainfall and temperature swings but no acute nationwide stress for 2026/27 sowing yet.

Looking ahead, forecasters note that El Niño conditions are likely to provide sufficient soil moisture for early soybean planting in Brazil’s Center‑West once the sanitary fallow ends in September, although they also flag heightened risks of localized extremes later in the season. Overall, weather is a watchpoint rather than an immediate driver of price spikes.

Fundamentals & Spreads

The current futures structure shows a mildly supportive nearby environment but a clear softening further out. CBOT soybeans trade with only modest carry between November 2026 and mid‑2027, signalling balanced nearby supply and demand. In contrast, soyoil exhibits a pronounced downtrend along the curve, from about 72–71 USc/lb in late 2026 toward roughly 63 USc/lb in 2028–2029, implying expectations of easing tightness in vegetable oils and potentially weaker crush margins from the oil side.

Soymeal futures, by comparison, are slightly firmer along the curve, with a gentle upward slope from roughly USD 318/t in early 2027 toward around USD 321–324/t into 2028–2029. This relative resilience of meal versus oil suggests that feed demand and protein use remain structurally robust, supporting crushers’ incentive to maintain high utilization even as oil prices normalize. Combined with strong Chinese imports and stable CASDE crush forecasts, this underpins a fundamentally well‑supplied yet well‑consumed global soybean complex.

Trading Outlook

• Producers: Given the mildly firm nearby structure but weaker deferred prices, consider layering in incremental hedges on 2026/27 production above the equivalent of EUR 395–405/t CBOT basis, while retaining some upside via options in case of late‑season weather shocks.
• Crushers: With soymeal relatively strong and soyoil forward values soft, current crush margins remain attractive. Locking in meal sales and a portion of 2026/27 bean coverage on dips toward the low EUR 390s/t could secure margins ahead of potential volatility in energy and veg‑oil markets.
• Importers & Feed Buyers: Record Brazilian exports and solid US prospects argue against panic buying. Use any weather‑driven rallies in the coming weeks to extend coverage into Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 rather than chasing nearby strength.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR basis)

• CBOT soybeans (spot‑equivalent): Slightly firmer to sideways over the next three sessions, with a bias to trade within roughly EUR 390–405/t, barring a major weather or macro shock.
• Soyoil: Mildly supportive near term, but rallies above the equivalent of EUR 1,520/t likely face selling interest given the steep contango reversal further out the curve.
• Soymeal: Stable to modestly higher, supported by feed demand and relatively tighter protein fundamentals versus oil, with EUR‑denominated values expected to hold around EUR 295–310/t.