Soybeans lifted by crude oil shock but capped by ample 2026/27 supply

Soybeans are trading moderately firmer, supported by the sharp upswing in crude oil and biodiesel demand expectations, while rising 2026/27 supply projections and weak US export sales cap the rally potential.

The soybean complex in Chicago is moving higher in early trade, with nearby beans, meal and oil all posting daily gains. The backdrop is a crude oil market shaken by attacks on Gulf energy facilities and threats around the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed Brent well above EUR 95–100/bbl in recent sessions and increased the appeal of biofuels. At the same time, fresh fundamental projections from IGC and Brazil confirm a comfortable medium‑term balance. This combination favours a firmer front end and a relatively flat forward curve.

📈 Prices & Curve Structure

CBOT soybean futures are higher across the nearby months: May 2026 trades around 1,169 US‑ct/bu (+0.69% day‑on‑day), July 2026 at 1,185 US‑ct/bu (+0.72%), with modest gains also in the 2027 strip. Soybean meal leads the complex on a percentage basis, with May 2026 up about 1.1% to USD 331.7/t, while soybean oil adds roughly 0.4–0.5% in the front months.

The forward curves remain only mildly inverse in beans and meal, while soybean oil shows a clearer downward slope from about 65.8 US‑ct/lb in May 2026 towards the mid‑50s US‑ct/lb in 2028–2029. This structure signals near‑term tightness tied to biofuel demand and energy prices, but expectations of more comfortable availability into the later years.

Product	Nearby futures*	Indicative cash FOB**
Soybeans CBOT May 26	≈ €390–400/t (1,169 ct/bu)	US No.2 FOB US Gulf ≈ €0.56/kg
Soybean meal CBOT May 26	≈ €335–345/t (USD 331.7/t)	—
Soybean oil CBOT May 26	≈ €1.35–1.40/kg (65.8 ct/lb)	—

*Converted to EUR with indicative FX, **from recent FOB offers converted to EUR/kg.

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

The latest outlook from the International Grains Council points to a larger global soybean crop in 2026/27. World production is forecast at 442 Mt, up 26 Mt from the prior year, while consumption is seen rising by 12 Mt to the same 442 Mt. As a result, ending stocks are projected flat at 79 Mt, underscoring an overall balanced, but not tight, medium‑term picture.

For 2025/26, IGC trimmed its production estimate by 2 Mt to 426 Mt and cut demand by 1 Mt. Ending stocks were reduced marginally by 1 Mt to 78 Mt. In other words, the current season remains adequately supplied, and the expected stock rebuild into 2026/27 is modest rather than explosive, which limits the scope for a sustained bull market unless weather or policy shocks emerge.

📊 Brazil & Processing Fundamentals

In Brazil, the oilseeds association Abiove nudged its 2026 soybean crop forecast slightly higher to 177.85 Mt (from 177.12 Mt). Crush is now seen at 61.5 Mt versus 61.0 Mt previously, and exports are kept at a hefty 111.5 Mt. These adjustments confirm that Brazil will remain the key anchor of global soybean supply and export competition in the coming marketing year.

Abiove also raised its projections for by‑products: soybean oil production is now estimated at 12.35 Mt (previously 12.25 Mt) and soybean meal at 47.4 Mt (from 47.0 Mt). The incremental increase in oil output is particularly relevant in a market where biodiesel demand is set to be boosted by high energy prices and potential blending mandates in major producing and consuming countries.

⛽ Energy Shock & Biofuel Demand

A sharp rally in crude oil, driven by escalating conflict and attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, has pushed Brent well above the EUR 95–100/bbl area in recent days. Volatility has been high, but the overall level of crude remains elevated, even after some intra‑day corrections. This environment significantly strengthens the economics of biofuels.

Market participants expect higher biodiesel blending rates, with discussions underway in Indonesia and Brazil and new multi‑year blending rules due in the US in the coming days. Stronger demand for biodiesel typically increases the pull on vegetable oils, including soybean oil, which explains why the soybean oil forward curve is tighter in nearby months. This linkage transmits the energy risk premium into the oilseed complex, supporting soybean and crush values despite otherwise comfortable stock projections.

🚢 Trade Flows & US Export Sales

US export demand for soybeans is a notable soft spot. The latest weekly export sales report showed net old‑crop soybean sales of 298,200 t, well below market expectations of 350,000–800,000 t and marking a marketing‑year low. Volumes were also 15% under the prior‑year week, signalling sluggish off‑take despite the recent price strength.

China remained the largest buyer with net 79,900 t, including re‑destinations from previously unknown destinations. Mexico added 74,000 t, also partly reclassified from unknown. New‑crop sales reached only 6,600 t, at the bottom of analyst estimates. In contrast, soybean meal bookings were solid at 220,900 t for the current year, within expectations, and soybean oil sales of 5,200 t came in at the positive end of the anticipated range. Overall, the data suggest relatively better demand for products than for whole beans.

🌦️ Weather Snapshot (Brazil & US)

Recent reports indicate that heavy rain episodes in parts of Brazil’s Center‑North have intermittently slowed soybean harvest and logistics, though there are signs of improvement towards late March as rainfall normalises. For now, these disruptions are more of a timing issue than a material threat to the national crop estimate, which has just been revised slightly higher by Abiove.

In the US, early‑spring weather in the Midwest is being monitored as farmers prepare for planting. Current forecasts suggest mixed conditions with alternating cool and milder spells; no large‑scale, persistent weather threat to soybean planting has emerged yet. Weather risks, therefore, remain more of a latent factor for the 2026/27 outlook than an immediate driver.

📉 Regional Cash Prices (in EUR)

Recent FOB indications converted into EUR show a moderately firmer tone in international cash markets over the past two weeks, aligning with the futures rebound:

• US No. 2 soybeans, FOB US (Washington D.C.): around €0.59/kg, up from €0.55–0.57/kg earlier in March.
• India, sortex clean FOB New Delhi: near €0.99/kg, modestly higher month‑to‑date.
• Ukraine soybeans, FOB Odesa: about €0.35/kg, steady to slightly firmer.
• China, yellow soybeans FOB Beijing: roughly €0.68–0.78/kg for conventional vs. organic qualities.

This pattern confirms a globally supported but not explosive price environment, with premium origins such as India and organic Chinese beans maintaining a clear mark‑up over Black Sea supplies.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Short‑term (days to weeks): Elevated crude oil and biofuel demand expectations support soybean oil and, by extension, the crush. Nearby soybean futures have room for further strength on energy headlines and any logistical hiccups in Brazil, but rallies are likely to meet producer selling.
• Medium‑term (into 2026/27): The IGC’s higher production forecast and stable ending stocks argue for a broadly range‑bound market, with weather during Northern Hemisphere planting and early crop development the key upside risk. Downside risks stem from persistently soft US export demand and any easing in geopolitical energy tensions.
• Positioning ideas: End‑users may consider extending coverage on breaks, particularly in soybean meal, given solid demand signals. Producers and traders could use strength in soybean oil to hedge forward crush margins or lock in favourable forward prices in the 2027–2028 slots where the curve still discounts future values.

📍 3‑Day Price Indication (Direction)

• CBOT Soybeans (May 26): Slightly bullish bias; energy‑led support, but sensitive to any reversal in crude and further weak US export data.
• CBOT Soybean Meal (May 26): Moderately bullish; resilient demand and firmer complex point to relative outperformance vs. beans.
• CBOT Soybean Oil (May 26): Bullish but volatile; closely tied to day‑to‑day moves in Brent and biodiesel policy headlines.