Soybeans Steady to Softer as Futures Ease and Crush Margins Stay Supportive

CBOT soybeans are trading slightly softer in early August with a shallow carry structure, while soymeal is easing and soyoil holds comparatively firmer. Physical FOB prices in key origins remain broadly stable in EUR terms, pointing to a consolidating market rather than a sharp directional move. Soybean futures and products are currently characterised by low daily moves and modest intraday ranges, suggesting a market that is well supplied in the short term but still pricing weather and demand risks into the forward curve. Chinese Dalian No.1 soybeans are fractionally lower, aligning with the mild weakness on CBOT. In physical trade, recent offers from China, India, Ukraine and the US show only narrow week‑on‑week adjustments, with slight firmness out of the Black Sea but flat levels from India, underlining a sideways to slightly soft global tone in EUR.

Prices

On CBOT, nearby August 2026 soybeans last trade around 1,148.75 USc/bu, with November 2026 at roughly 1,177.25 USc/bu and March 2027 near 1,199.25 USc/bu, indicating a modest carry of about 50 USc/bu (≈4–5%) out to mid‑2027. Daily changes across the curve are limited to about −0.02% to −0.17%, confirming a calm tape rather than a strongly trending market.

Converted to EUR (assuming ~1.10 USD/EUR), the November 2026 CBOT futures level equates to roughly 9.7–9.9 EUR/bu or about 355–360 EUR/t, while front‑month hovers just below this band. Soymeal futures around 318–327 USD/short ton translate to roughly 290–300 EUR/t, having slipped about 0.2–0.3% on the day. Soyoil, by contrast, is holding firmer near 67–68 USc/lb, only fractionally changed and underpinned by biodiesel demand.

On Dalian, No.1 soybean futures for September 2026 settle at 4,716 CNY/t, with nearby months down 0.12–0.15% day‑on‑day. In EUR terms (≈7.9 CNY/EUR), this corresponds to roughly 595–605 EUR/t, keeping Chinese domestic futures at a premium to CBOT‑equivalent values and helping to anchor import demand.

Recent physical offers corroborate this picture of stability. US No.2 soybeans FOB (Washington D.C.) have eased from about 0.70 to 0.63 USD/kg since early July, now around 0.57–0.58 EUR/kg. Ukrainian FOB soybeans from Odesa have edged up slightly to about 0.37 EUR/kg, while Indian sortex‑clean beans in New Delhi remain flat near 0.81–0.82 EUR/kg in EUR terms. Chinese yellow soybeans, both conventional and organic, have moved in a narrow 0.71–0.77 EUR/kg band.

Supply & Demand

The CBOT forward curve shows only a shallow carry through 2027–2028, suggesting comfortable but not burdensome global supplies. Open interest is concentrated in the November 2026 contract (almost 494,000 lots), indicating that this remains the primary hedging vehicle for the upcoming US harvest and a key benchmark for global pricing.

In China, high trading volumes in Dalian’s nearby soybean contracts (over 200,000 lots combined for the front six months) point to active commercial hedging and ongoing import demand. The slight declines across Dalian contracts mirror the small CBOT losses, implying that the market is reacting more to marginal shifts in weather expectations and demand rather than any structural shock.

Crush economics remain broadly supportive. Soymeal prices are easing modestly, but the relative strength in soyoil – driven in part by biofuel and renewable diesel demand – continues to underpin crush margins. This encourages processors in both the US and China to maintain high utilisation rates, anchoring demand for raw soybeans even as futures drift slightly lower.

Weather & Risk Factors

For the US Midwest, August is a critical month for soybean pod filling. Current weather reports and trader commentary over recent days still frame weather as the primary short‑term driver for yield outcomes and quality, with largely favourable conditions in July now giving way to close scrutiny of August temperature and rainfall patterns. Any sustained hot and dry spell would quickly translate into yield concerns and price support.

In South America, the market is looking ahead to 2026/27 planting intentions in Brazil and Argentina, but these are not yet the dominant price driver for nearby CBOT contracts. Instead, attention remains on US crop ratings, weekly export sales and Chinese import pacing. A still‑comfortable global balance sheet tempers upside, but weather‑related yield risks and policy‑driven biofuel demand for soyoil cap the downside.

Fundamentals & Regional FOB Structure

The combination of slightly weaker CBOT soybeans, softer soymeal and relatively resilient soyoil reflects a market where protein demand is steady but not booming, while vegetable oil demand remains well supported. This is consistent with moderate livestock feed requirements and robust renewable fuel mandates in key consuming regions.

FOB and CPT prices underscore regional differences. Ukraine remains the most aggressive origin with FOB values near 0.37 EUR/kg and GMO‑free CPT offers around 0.39 EUR/kg, maintaining competitiveness into Europe. The US has seen a modest softening of FOB values in July, enhancing its export appeal, while India and China trade at a premium, reflecting local demand, quality and logistical factors.

Overall, the global soybean complex currently trades in a narrow band, with futures volatility modest and the curve gently upward‑sloping. This setup typically favours commercial hedging strategies and encourages end‑users to extend coverage opportunistically on dips, while limiting the appetite for aggressive speculative shorts given the latent weather and policy risks.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term bias (3–4 weeks): Sideways to slightly softer in CBOT soybeans, with November 2026 likely to oscillate within a range around current levels in EUR/t unless US weather turns sharply adverse.
• End‑users: Consider layering in additional Q4 2026–Q1 2027 coverage on dips, particularly where local basis remains favourable versus CBOT; watch soymeal for potential further downside as crush runs stay strong.
• Producers: Use the mild carry to roll hedges forward where storage is available; options strategies (selling calls above the market) may help monetise low realised volatility while preserving downside protection.
• Traders: Monitor spreads between CBOT and Dalian as well as FOB Black Sea vs US Gulf; the relative firmness of DCE and Black Sea offers may present arbitrage or directional export opportunities if CBOT weakens further.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR Basis)

• CBOT soybeans (nearby & Nov 26): Slightly softer to sideways in EUR/t, with narrow intraday ranges expected barring sudden US weather shifts.
• Soymeal: Mild downward bias as futures ease and crush margins remain positive.
• Soyoil: Sideways to firm in EUR/t, supported by stable biofuel demand and relatively stronger product pricing.