Soybeans supported by Chinese demand hopes and firmer oil share

Soy complex futures are modestly higher, with soybeans and soyoil edging up on renewed Chinese demand hopes, while meal softens slightly and the forward curve remains gently lower into 2027–29.

Soybeans at the CBOT continue to grind higher after recent export headlines, supported by expectations of further Chinese purchases and a still‑tight nearby U.S. export balance. Soyoil is outperforming meal as markets position ahead of upcoming U.S. biodiesel and blending rules, while palm oil’s recent sell‑off and partial rebound cap the upside. Chinese and Indian physical prices in EUR show a broadly steady to slightly firmer tone, suggesting end‑user cover is being built cautiously rather than aggressively.

📈 Prices & Curve Structure

CBOT soybeans for May 2026 trade around 1,176 US‑cents/bu, with nearby contracts up roughly 0.15–0.22% versus the previous close. The curve from May 2026 out to November 2029 is only modestly discounted, with new‑crop 2027–2029 trading roughly 60–80 cents/bu below nearby values, signaling comfortable long‑term supply but no acute surplus.

In soy products, CBOT soyoil May 2026 is near 68.4 US‑cents/lb, up about 0.6% on the day, while soymeal May 2026 is steady just above USD 322/short ton with marginal losses of around 0.03%. That combination points to a slightly stronger oil share within the crush, consistent with policy‑driven demand for vegetable oils.

Market	Latest level (approx. EUR)	Move vs. prior
CBOT Soybeans May 26	≈ 395–400 EUR/t (futures equivalent)	+0.15%
CBOT Soyoil May 26	≈ 1,380–1,400 EUR/t (oil equivalent)	+0.6%
CBOT Soymeal May 26	≈ 300–305 EUR/t	≈ flat
FOB Soybeans US No.2 (Washington D.C.)	≈ 0.59 EUR/kg	steady w/w
FOB Soybeans India sortex clean (New Delhi)	≈ 0.99 EUR/kg	steady w/w
FOB Soybeans Ukraine (Odesa)	≈ 0.34 EUR/kg	-0.01 EUR/kg w/w

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

U.S. soybeans are drawing support from expectations of additional Chinese buying. Since late October, state‑owned Chinese traders have purchased around 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling earlier political commitments but still well below typical volumes of about 23 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season. As a result, cumulative U.S. soybean export sales remain about 27% under last year’s pace, leaving demand‑side risk skewed to the upside if China decides to accelerate purchases.

In China’s domestic futures market, DCE No. 1 soybeans for nearby delivery are broadly stable around 4,600–4,660 CNY/t, reflecting balanced local fundamentals and no sign of acute tightness. This stability, alongside only modest changes in FOB Beijing soybeans in EUR, suggests crushers are adequately covered in the short term but remain sensitive to international price moves and policy developments.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy Drivers

Soyoil’s relative strength is closely tied to expectations around U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel mandates. Market participants anticipate the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to clarify 2026–2027 biodiesel blending obligations shortly, potentially even before the upcoming presidential meeting with farm and biofuel representatives. Any mandate that locks in higher use of biomass‑based diesel would underpin structural demand for soyoil and could widen the premium of oil over meal in the crush.

On the vegetable oil side, Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a two‑week low earlier in the week, dragged down by weaker crude oil and soft near‑term import demand as Indian refiners scaled back purchases of palm, soy and sun oils. Their strategy is to wait out the risk premium created by the Iran‑related oil price rally. The partial recovery in palm oil on Thursday morning, in line with stronger soyoil and firmer crude, caps downside for the soy complex but also limits the space for a sharp independent rally in soyoil.

Soymeal, by contrast, is slightly weaker along the curve. USDA’s weekly export data are expected to show 150,000–400,000 tonnes of soymeal sales for 2025/26, a solid but not spectacular pace. For soyoil, traders look for anything between a net reduction of 20,000 tonnes and net sales of up to 24,000 tonnes, underlining how sensitive that segment remains to policy and biodiesel demand rather than to traditional feed demand.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather is not driving an acute risk premium at present, but background conditions remain important. Brazil is advancing through its large 2025/26 soybean harvest, with recent reporting still pointing to another record crop driven by expanded acreage, even if farm margins are thinner than in previous boom years. Localized flooding in parts of Brazil earlier in the season and logistics bottlenecks at some river ports have created short‑term delays rather than structural supply losses.

In North America, attention is starting to shift to U.S. planting intentions and early spring conditions. For now, no widespread weather threat is apparent, keeping forward CBOT soybean contracts in a modest contango rather than a pronounced weather risk backwardation. Any shift toward persistent planting delays or extended dryness in the U.S. Midwest would quickly feed into new‑crop 2026–2027 pricing.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

• Crushers: The slightly firmer oil share favors locking in crush margins where meal demand is secure; consider modestly increasing forward soymeal sales while leaving some upside open in oil.
• Importers (China, India, MENA): With FOB prices broadly steady in EUR and U.S. exports still below normal, gradual coverage on price dips rather than aggressive front‑loading appears prudent.
• Producers: The gently downward‑sloping futures curve into 2028–2029 argues for scaling in hedges on strength, especially if export headlines or policy news trigger short‑term rallies.
• Speculative traders: Watch for EPA biodiesel announcements and U.S. export data; these are the key catalysts for near‑term volatility in soyoil and, by extension, the whole soy complex.

Over the next three trading days, we see a mildly supportive to sideways bias for CBOT soybeans and soyoil, with meal likely to lag. In EUR terms, key soybean benchmarks on major exchanges are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range around current levels, barring a surprise in U.S. export sales or a sharp move in crude oil.