Soybeans supported by strongest China demand since 2023

China’s renewed buying of U.S. soybeans, including a fresh 202,000 t single sale for 2026/27, is underpinning prices and signaling a more constructive demand outlook after a weak phase in trade. Robust weekly U.S. soybean export sales, now at their highest level since November 2023, are providing a clear demand-led floor to the market. China has emerged as the dominant buyer in recent weeks, helping November CBOT futures to rebound modestly after prior pressure from big South American supplies. At the same time, regional cash prices in Europe and the Black Sea remain competitive, with Ukraine and U.S. origins broadly steady and Chinese and Indian offers holding firm. Weather in Brazil’s Center-West is turning more favorable for planting, but uneven rainfall and lingering soil moisture deficits keep some production risk in play, limiting downside for now.

Prices

Global soybean prices are currently supported by stronger U.S. export demand rather than by weather worries alone. On the CBOT, front-month futures have edged higher, with November soybeans recently gaining on the back of bullish export data and fresh sales to China.

Physical indications in key origins are mostly stable. Latest quotations in EUR show, for example, Soybeans FOB Odesa (UA) at 0.333 EUR, Soybeans No. 2 FOB Washington D.C. (US) at 0.58 EUR, and yellow organic soybeans FOB Beijing (CN) at 0.85 EUR, all unchanged versus their previous assessments. Conventional yellow soybeans FOB Beijing (CN) stand at 0.74 EUR, also steady, while GMO-free soybeans CPT Odesa (UA) are slightly softer at 0.396 EUR versus 0.401 EUR earlier.

Supply & Demand

Demand-side momentum clearly dominates the current narrative. On October 22, private exporters reported a single sale of 202,000 t of U.S. soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year, adding to a string of daily “flash” announcements. Weekly U.S. net export sales for 2026/27 in the week to October 15 reached 2.84 million t, the highest weekly volume since November 2023, with China accounting for roughly 2.18 million t of that total.

This return of China as a large-scale buyer marks a notable shift after earlier seasons of muted purchases and heavier reliance on South American origins. The current buying surge improves utilization of U.S. export capacity and helps absorb new-crop supplies just as the Northern Hemisphere harvest advances, easing fears of burdensome near-term stocks.

On the supply side, Brazil’s planting of the 2026/27 crop is progressing, with the onset of the rainy season in the Center-West generally confirmed but spatially irregular rainfall and elevated temperatures in parts of Mato Grosso and Goiás keeping soil moisture patchy. Forecasts call for improving rains in most main soybean areas, but agronomists still recommend cautious pacing of field operations where soils remain dry, preserving some production risk premium in prices.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

The key short-term fundamental driver is the acceleration in U.S. export business to China. The latest 202,000 t announcement builds on a sequence of daily sales and confirms that China is actively covering forward needs for 2026/27. Weekly USDA data underline that the current sales pace not only exceeded market expectations but also marks the strongest weekly performance since late 2023, signaling a material improvement in global demand for U.S. origin.

Meanwhile, domestic and international crush margins remain broadly supportive, underpinned by steady meal demand and still historically elevated (though recently volatile) vegetable oil prices. However, the large South American crop potential and expansion in planted area, particularly in Brazil, cap the upside and keep the market sensitive to any sign that Chinese buying might slow once immediate coverage is secured.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

Near term, the combination of record-strong recent U.S. export sales to China and only gradually improving Brazilian crop weather suggests a moderately supportive bias for soybean prices. However, once planting in Brazil is firmly established under more regular rainfall, the market is likely to refocus on a still-comfortable global balance sheet and large prospective 2026/27 South American supplies, which may reintroduce downward pressure if demand momentum eases.

• Producers (US, Black Sea): Use current demand-led strength to scale into sales on rallies, particularly for nearby positions, while retaining some upside participation via options in case Chinese buying extends longer than expected.
• Importers (EU, MENA, Asia): Consider advancing coverage on price dips, as strong Chinese demand and any renewed Brazilian weather issues could tighten nearby availability and lift basis levels.
• Traders: Watch for shifts in daily USDA export announcements and Brazilian rainfall patterns; fading sharp short-covering rallies may be attractive once evidence accumulates that Chinese demand is slowing and South American crop prospects normalize.

3-day directional view

• CBOT futures: Mildly firmer bias, with dips likely supported by continued strong U.S. export headlines to China.
• Black Sea (FOB Odesa): Sideways to slightly firm, tracking CBOT while remaining competitively priced against U.S. Gulf and Brazilian offers.
• China CFR/FOB-linked values: Stable to slightly higher, reflecting both internal demand and the renewed import program from the U.S.