Spanish Almonds Hold Firm as California Demand Rebounds

Spanish and US almond kernel prices are stable to slightly firmer, with Spanish Marcona and Valencia varieties holding a modest premium to domestic Spanish lonja averages and to Californian Carmel. Short‑coverage buying and strong May shipments from California keep a floor under export values, while Spanish weather is turning hot with localized storm risk but no acute yield threat in the next days. Spain’s almond market is trading in a relatively tight range, with Marcona and Guara quotes in Spanish lonjas edging mildly higher week-on-week and tracking near the upper end of the 2026 price band for conventional kernels. In California, record May almond shipments signal resilient global demand, led by India and China, even as buyers continue to cover mainly nearby needs rather than building long forward positions. For Spanish buyers, this translates into a stable to slightly supported price environment into mid‑June, with limited downside unless European demand softens abruptly or California offers turn more aggressive.

Prices

Indicative wholesale kernel levels (FOB/FAS, converted to EUR where needed):

Spanish spot Marcona at main lonjas is assessed around EUR 6.10–7.30/kg kernel, with Guara near EUR 5.20–5.75/kg and common/"comuna" types just above EUR 5.00/kg, confirming a broadly steady to slightly firmer tone across the domestic physical market. 

Supply & Demand

California remains the key driver of global supply. The latest private and official outlooks keep the 2026 crop near 2.7 billion lbs, essentially unchanged from last year, suggesting no major structural tightening on the supply side.  At the same time, the May Position Report shows record May sales and slightly higher shipments year-on-year, shrinking the season’s shipment deficit and highlighting resilient export demand, notably into India, China and Southeast Asia. 

On the demand side, retail and foodservice indicators in Europe remain firm, with Spanish consumer prices for roasted almonds in mainstream retail channels still well above wholesale kernel values, preserving processor margins and supporting steady offtake.  In Iberia, Portugal’s export unit values around EUR 6.2/kg in June reinforce the picture of a mildly firmer regional almond complex, with Spain acting as both supplier and price reference. 

Fundamentals & Weather

Spain’s key growing areas, including Castilla–La Mancha and Aragón, are currently moving into a hot early-summer pattern. Around Madrid, daytime highs near 31–34°C over 14–16 June with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are forecast, with only isolated storms expected.  For almonds, this implies normal kernel filling conditions in the very short term, with no immediate heat‑stress or rainfall-related disease concerns.

In California, recent industry commentary underlines that buyers are largely keeping coverage short, with commitments focused on nearby months despite strong shipments.  This behaviour limits downside for Spanish origin: if California prices attempt to weaken, nearby demand quickly absorbs volume, while any upside shock in freight, logistics or competing nuts (e.g. pistachios, hazelnuts) could translate into faster price transmission into Spain. 

Trading Outlook

• Spanish processors / roasters: With Guara and Valencia broadly flat and Marcona edging up, consider covering 2–4 weeks of needs now, especially for premium Marcona and organic Nonpareil, to hedge against further support from California’s strong shipment pace.
• Exporters (Spanish origin): Current differentials versus Californian Carmel (≈EUR 0.0–0.5/kg premium for key Spanish varieties) remain competitive; use stable nearby prices to lock in forward contracts with EU and MENA buyers while logistics are normal.
• Industrial buyers in EU: Downside in the next week appears limited given firm global demand and stable weather; staggered buying on minor dips rather than waiting for a major correction is advisable.

3‑Day Price Indications (Direction)

• Madrid FOB – Spanish kernels (Valencia, Guara, Marcona, organic Nonpareil): Stable to slightly firmer over the next 3 days, with tight ranges expected and any moves likely confined to ±0.02–0.05 EUR/kg.
• US FAS – California Carmel & Nonpareil (reference for ES import parity): Steady in EUR terms through mid‑week, with FX and freight the main short‑term variables rather than origin price changes.
• Spanish domestic spot (lonjas): Guara and common types seen flat; Marcona may retain a mild upward bias if local snack and confectionery demand stays strong.