Almond Kernels Hold Firm as Festive Demand and Replacement Costs Lead

Almond kernel prices remain generally steady to slightly firmer, with no strong signals for a major correction at current levels. The market tone is constructive, supported by imported replacement costs and the approaching global festival season, particularly demand from India and other Asian buyers. Underlying liquidity is improving as new-crop volumes move through supply chains, while buyers stay selective and price‑sensitive. European and Mediterranean markets show modest upward adjustments across Spanish Marcona and Valencia types, whereas U.S. Nonpareil and Carmel grades are holding a tight range. With replacement offers and forward coverage into the September–October festive window becoming the key focus, nearby downside appears limited unless demand disappoints.

Prices

Recent indications confirm a broadly stable to slightly firmer price structure. U.S. almond kernels (Carmel, SSR) are indicated around EUR 6.70/kg FAS Washington D.C., unchanged over the latest assessment period, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 is near EUR 9.35/kg FOB, up marginally versus late August. Spanish material has inched higher: Marcona 12/14 around EUR 6.65/kg FOB Madrid, Valencia 12/14 roughly EUR 7.30/kg, and premium Marcona S/16 near EUR 8.90/kg.

The incremental week‑on‑week increases of EUR 0.05–0.10/kg across key Spanish grades underline a firm undertone rather than an aggressive rally. Indian wholesale prices also reflect a firm bias ahead of the main festival period, supported by limited nearby kernel availability and cautious selling from origin.

Supply & Demand

The market outlook remains relatively constructive, with no strong reason for a major decline at current kernel levels. Imported replacement prices are a central support: California sellers are reluctant to discount aggressively given still‑uncertain final crop size and steady export demand into the new marketing year. A broadly tight global kernel balance, highlighted in recent trade commentary, reinforces the view of a market biased slightly to the upside into the September–October festive window.

On the demand side, India remains pivotal as the largest single destination, but purchasing has been cautious and timing‑driven. Buyers continue to operate hand‑to‑mouth, waiting for clearer festival signals and potential corrections, yet rising landed replacement costs limit downside expectations. Select European and Middle Eastern markets have absorbed some volumes earlier in the season, diversifying demand and underpinning kernel values even as Indian buying timing remains tactical.

Fundamentals & Weather

California’s 2026 almond crop is forecast only marginally below last year near 2.7 billion lbs, while some private estimates lean slightly higher on the back of rested trees and generally favorable growing conditions. This scale of production keeps the market well supplied but not burdensomely oversupplied at current demand levels, especially given expectations for two Diwali‑related demand cycles over the 2026/27 marketing year.

Weather during bloom and early nut development was mixed but overall adequate, with episodes of cool, wet conditions in February followed by localized heat and storms later in the season. At this stage in September, Nonpareil harvest is largely completed and remaining varieties are progressing under seasonally warm, dry conditions, which are generally favorable for drying and quality. Spanish production appears stable, with no major weather shock reported in recent days, leaving the focus firmly on demand and logistics rather than short‑term crop losses.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Into the next few weeks, imported replacement prices and festival demand will remain the main drivers for almond kernels. With current levels already reflecting a modest firming, the risk‑reward skews slightly toward further gradual strength rather than a sharp decline, barring a major disappointment in Indian or broader Asian demand.

• Buyers / roasters: Consider covering a portion of Q4 needs now, particularly in preferred grades (Nonpareil, premium Spanish), while keeping some flexibility for potential post‑festival dips.
• Importers in Asia & MENA: Avoid running excessive short positions into the peak festive period; replacement costs from origin indicate limited downside in nearby shipments.
• Producers / exporters: Maintain disciplined offer levels on premium kernels but remain pragmatic on mid‑grades to keep stocks moving ahead of the heavier post‑harvest flow.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR)

• US kernels (Carmel, Nonpareil): Sideways to slightly firmer; offers expected to hold within ±1–2% of current EUR 6.7–9.4/kg range.
• Spanish Marcona & Valencia: Mildly bullish bias; buyers may face another EUR 0.05–0.10/kg upward adjustment on nearby positions.
• Destination markets (India / Middle East): Firm tone likely to persist as festival demand builds and nearby replacement remains costly.