Stable Dried Guava Prices as Northern Vietnam Battles Heavy Rains

Dried guava FOB Hanoi prices are holding steady in euro terms despite heavy rains and logistical frictions in northern Vietnam, leaving the short‑term market balanced with a slight upward bias in freight-inclusive offers. After several weeks of unchanged export quotes, the dried guava market out of Hanoi is trading in a narrow range with limited spot liquidity. Heavy monsoon rains and localized flooding in northern provinces are creating short‑term logistical challenges, but not yet enough crop damage to shift fundamentals. Export demand for Vietnamese processed fruit remains firm, while global freight rates and regional port congestion keep logistics costs elevated. For now, buyers see little justification for aggressive price moves, but the combination of weather risk and stubbornly high logistics costs argues against any meaningful downside.

Prices

Current indicative offers for dried white guava FOB Hanoi are broadly stable compared with recent weeks, implying a flat price trend in EUR after FX conversion. There is no sign of discounting, suggesting sellers are comfortable with current margins and do not face urgent cash‑flow pressure.

Upstream, Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports have continued to expand in value in early 2026, underpinned by higher volumes of processed products, including dried fruit. This export backdrop supports price stability even as domestic logistics costs rise.

Supply & Demand

Heavy and persistent rainfall has affected northern Vietnam in recent days, with forecasters warning of elevated flooding and landslide risk across several northern provinces, including areas around Hanoi. Seasonal monsoon rains have been further intensified at times by tropical systems crossing the Gulf of Tonkin, bringing locally very high rainfall totals.

For dried guava specifically, farmers and processors report localized disruptions to harvesting and on‑farm drying operations, but there is no clear evidence yet of large‑scale orchard loss in key guava‑growing belts around northern Vietnam. Recent government and industry data show processed fruit exports gaining share within Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable export basket, indicating solid external demand that is likely absorbing available guava supplies without creating surplus.

Fundamentals & Logistics

The national meteorological service and local media highlight an El Niño pattern expected to increase weather volatility, combining periods of heavy rainfall in the North with drought risks further south. This raises medium‑term uncertainty for fruit trees, but the immediate impact on dried guava supply is more logistical than structural.

On the logistics side, Vietnam’s logistics agency and recent industry reports point to rising logistics costs and persistent congestion at key ports amid strong export flows. Live congestion data show elevated waiting times and delays at major Vietnamese ports, including Ho Chi Minh City, adding to lead times and upward pressure on freight components in FOB and CFR offers. These conditions underpin current dried guava price levels, as exporters resist cutting offers while their transport and handling costs remain high.

Weather Outlook (Hanoi / Northern Vietnam)

Short‑term forecasts for Hanoi and surrounding northern provinces indicate continued monsoon conditions over the next three days, with high humidity, frequent showers and thunderstorms, and episodes of heavy rain mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Daytime temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid‑30s °C, with warm nights and only brief drying windows.

For guava growers, this pattern increases the risk of fruit cracking, fungal pressure and delays in field drying, though the warm temperatures support rapid post‑harvest dehydration when rain breaks occur. Harvest and transport operations are likely to face intermittent disruption rather than a full shutdown, limiting near‑term supply shocks but adding noise to shipment scheduling.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term bias: Stable to slightly firmer on a delivered basis, driven more by freight and congestion surcharges than by raw material scarcity.
• Buyers: Consider covering near‑term needs promptly where shipment windows are tight, but avoid over‑extending coverage given the absence of clear crop damage signals so far.
• Sellers: Current FOB levels appear defensible; prioritize reliability and shipment timing over marginal price gains while weather‑related logistics risks remain elevated.
• Risk factors: Any escalation of flooding in northern Vietnam or further tightening in regional container capacity could quickly translate into higher CFR/CIF prices even if farmgate guava values stay stable.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

• Hanoi (FOB dried guava, white): ≈ €4.80/kg, expected to remain in a tight €4.75–4.90/kg range over the next three days, with upside risk mainly from freight and short‑term logistical delays rather than fundamental supply shocks.