Vietnam Dried Guava FOB Hanoi Holds Steady Amid Firm Export Demand

Vietnamese dried guava export prices out of Hanoi are holding steady, with only marginal gains over the past month, as robust overseas demand offsets seasonal weather risks and logistical noise. Export activity for fruits and vegetables remains strong in early 2026, and Hanoi’s hot, humid, and storm‑prone weather pattern in the coming days is being watched, but so far it has not materially disrupted dried guava flows.

Prices

Dried guava FOB Hanoi is currently indicated around €4.90–5.10/kg, stable over the last week, with only a slight uptick versus late May in EUR terms after FX conversion from global guava export benchmarks. Spot fresh guava export unit values for Vietnam are quoted near US$2.2/kg, up almost 28% year on year, underlining firm underlying fruit values that help floor processed product prices.

Versus the broader guava complex, Vietnam’s dried guava remains competitively priced against other Asian origins’ dried fruit offerings, as general dried fruit prices are firm but not spiking. Recent dried-fruit market commentary points to steady global demand rather than extreme tightness, which is consistent with the sideways pattern seen in Hanoi FOB indications.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains a sizeable guava producer in Asia, with national output over 700,000 tonnes in recent seasons, supporting year‑round raw material availability for processing. Strong overall fruit and vegetable exports – up about 16% year on year in the first five months of 2026 to roughly US$2.67 billion – confirm healthy overseas demand and efficient use of export channels, including for niche processed items such as dried guava.

Within the dried fruit category, Vietnam is consolidating its position as a competitive regional supplier, benefiting from improved processing capacity, food safety standards and diversified customer bases across East Asia and beyond. Recent sector guidance highlights growing interest from buyers in Vietnamese dried tropical fruits, including guava, as importers seek alternatives to traditional suppliers and hedge against supply risk.

Weather & Logistics (VN)

Hanoi faces typical late‑June monsoon conditions: forecasts for 27–29 June call for daytime highs of 32–33°C, high humidity and frequent showers or thunderstorms, with rain probabilities around 70–90%. These conditions can delay fresh fruit harvesting and sun‑drying windows, but major disruptions are unlikely for established processors who rely on controlled drying and storage facilities.

So far there are no reports of serious flooding or transport blockages in northern Vietnam that would significantly affect dried fruit export logistics. Broader commentary on Vietnamese agricultural exports notes weather‑related challenges and climate risk, but also emphasizes ongoing sector restructuring, better value‑added processing and use of trade agreements – all of which should help keep dried guava export flows relatively resilient despite seasonal storms.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Fruit and veg export momentum: Aggregate fruit and vegetable exports rose about 16% year on year in the first five months of 2026, reflecting solid global demand and supportive trade conditions for Vietnamese horticultural products, including dried guava.
• Dried fruit trade positioning: A recent dried fruit export guide underlines Vietnam’s competitive pricing and increasing presence in HS 0813.40 products, reinforcing buyer interest in Vietnamese dried tropical fruits as a value alternative.
• Input cost backdrop: While not guava‑specific, wider dried fruit market analysis for 2026 points to stable but elevated costs for energy and logistics, helping keep offer prices for processed products like dried guava from falling, even when harvests are adequate.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• Sellers / processors: With prices stable to slightly firmer and strong cross‑commodity fruit export momentum, current FOB levels around €5/kg look defensible. Consider locking in volumes on short‑term contracts while monitoring weather for any sudden quality or availability issues in fresh supply.
• Importers / buyers: The lack of sharp upside pressure offers a window for coverage. Stagger purchases over the coming weeks rather than waiting for off‑season, as ongoing strong fruit export performance and firm input costs argue against significantly lower offers in the near term.
• Traders: Basis risks appear limited in the next month. Focus on FX moves and freight adjustments, which may have a greater impact on landed EUR prices than origin‑side guava differentials.

3‑Day directional outlook (27–29 June 2026, indicative, EUR):

• Hanoi FOB dried guava: €4.90–5.10/kg, bias: sideways to mildly firmer amid firm export demand and seasonally wet but manageable weather conditions.