Star Anise and Anise Seeds: Stable Prices, Rising Weather Risks

Star anise and anise seed prices are broadly flat across India, Vietnam and Syrian origin, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves. The main near‑term risk is not demand, but emerging weather stress in Vietnam linked to a strengthening El Niño, which could tighten star anise supply later in 2026 if prolonged heat and drought materialise. Demand signals from the wider spice complex are mixed: some high‑value spices remain firm, while India’s aggregate spice exports have recently softened, pointing to selective, rather than broad‑based, buying strength. For now, star anise and anise seeds trade in a balanced, sideways market, but buyers should watch Vietnamese weather and Syria’s broader agricultural recovery for potential shifts in Q4.

Prices

Quoted benchmark prices (FOB/FCA, converted to EUR at ~1.07 USD/EUR for reference):

Prices in Vietnam and India have been unchanged over the last two weeks, signalling a balanced spot market with neither aggressive selling nor urgent nearby demand. Syrian-origin anise seeds in Europe show a very modest uptick, more in line with general freight and cost pass‑through than a clear supply squeeze.

Supply & Demand

On the demand side, the broader Indian spice complex shows some weakness: official data indicate India’s total spice exports fell around 5% in value in FY 2025‑26, with pressure on chilli and cumin shipments, reflecting softer global buying for certain spices rather than across the board. This reduces the risk of a sudden demand spike for star anise from blended spice users in the near term.

In contrast, high‑value aromatics like cardamom remain relatively expensive in India, with wholesale prices around INR 2,60,000 per quintal (≈ 2,860 EUR/tonne), and MCX futures trading near INR 3,270/kg (≈ 37.5 EUR/kg), signalling that premium flavour ingredients still enjoy solid underlying demand. This supports stable offtake for star anise in masala, beverage and confectionery applications, but without the overheated speculative behaviour seen in some past seasons.

For anise seeds, global trade statistics group anise and star anise together under HS 090910, and recent analysis highlights ongoing price volatility tied to weather‑driven yield swings and quality variation in essential oil content. With Syrian origin gradually re‑establishing its agricultural base, competition among origins (Syria, Turkey and others) should cap the upside unless a distinct weather or geopolitical shock emerges.

Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, SY, VN)

Vietnam (VN) – Elevated Weather Risk

Vietnamese meteorological authorities warn that a strong El Niño event is expected to intensify through late 2026, raising the risk of prolonged heatwaves and drought across the country. June conditions in Vietnam are typically hot and humid with frequent showers in the north and south, while central Vietnam is somewhat drier but still subject to high heat and humidity. For star anise growing zones in the northern uplands, this combination of early‑season warmth and a drier‑than‑normal outlook later in the year could stress trees and reduce pod formation if rains underperform.

So far there are no fresh reports of direct damage to the 2026–27 star anise crop, but traders increasingly price in weather risk premiums in offers for forward positions, especially for higher‑oil content lots. Any confirmation of moisture deficits in Q3–Q4 would likely tighten Vietnamese FOB availability and widen the premium over Indian origin.

India (IN) – Monsoon in Focus

For India, current spice‑market commentary notes that monsoon progression is the key driver across several crops, with early rains generally adequate but uneven in some belts. While this commentary focuses on other spices (ginger, turmeric), it signals broadly normal sowing conditions and no acute weather stress yet in major spice states. For star anise – a minor but high‑value crop – this backdrop implies stable near‑term supply expectations with limited climatic premium in current FOB offers.

Syrian Origin (SY) – Gradual Normalisation

In Syria, recent agricultural reporting has centred on a sharp expected increase in wheat production in 2026 as security and input availability slowly improve, suggesting broader normalisation in field operations and logistics. Although not specific to anise, this recovery context helps explain why Syrian anise seed export offers into Europe remain available and relatively competitive, with only mild price appreciation despite regional macro risks.

Market Fundamentals

• Stocks & availability: Stable spot prices and flat week‑on‑week movements in both Vietnam and India point to comfortable near‑term availability and limited stock‑building by origin shippers.
• Relative value vs. other spices: Compared with sharply higher cardamom and firm pepper prices, current star anise levels look moderately valued, which may attract buyers seeking to optimise spice blends without materially raising input costs.
• Macro & freight: No fresh freight shock has emerged in the last few days; the slight uptick in Syrian seed prices in Europe is more consistent with incremental logistical and financing costs than with a structural supply squeeze.

3–7 Day Outlook & Trading Guidance

Price Direction (next 3 days)

• Vietnam star anise (FOB Hanoi): Bias: sideways to slightly firm. Weather‑headline risk is rising, but no immediate crop loss is priced in; expect offers to hold current EUR levels with a modest firming tendency for premium grades.
• India star anise (FOB New Delhi): Bias: sideways. Softness in India’s overall spice exports tempers upside, and monsoon‑watching dominates; most sellers likely to roll existing indications rather than chase higher prices.
• Syrian anise seeds (FCA NL): Bias: sideways to marginally firm, mainly reflecting European logistics and steady blending demand rather than origin‑level tightness.

Trading Recommendations

• Short‑term buyers (2–6 weeks): For routine coverage, stagger purchases between Vietnamese and Indian origin, locking in a share of Q3 needs now while prices remain flat and liquidity is good.
• Risk‑averse users: Consider securing higher‑oil Vietnamese lots on a partial forward basis (e.g. 25–40% of Q4 requirements) to hedge against a potential El Niño‑driven supply squeeze later in 2026.
• Merchants & blenders: Maintain optionality between star anise and anise seeds where formulation allows; Syrian origin remains cost‑effective, but monitor regional geopolitical headlines for any sudden disruption risk.