Sugar Market Outlook 2025-26: Stability Amid Sufficient Supply & Robust Production

The global sugar market enters the 2025-26 season on a note of stability, with India—the world’s second-largest sugar producer—projecting a steady output and dismissing fears of shortages or import needs. According to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), sugar production for the new season (October–September) is estimated at 34.8 million tonnes, contingent on normal monsoon patterns through August and September. Favorable planting across key states and healthy sugarcane yields underpin confidence in both production volumes and available stocks.

The anticipated opening stock for October 1, 2025, stands at 9 million tonnes, comfortably covering the projected domestic consumption of 29.5 million tonnes during the season—even factoring in the ethanol blending program. Market pricing across Europe and the UK has held steady, while exchanges are closely watching weather developments and Brazilian harvest progress to gauge future pricing directions. With Brazil continuing to ship large volumes and Thailand’s output rebounding, speculative pressure in futures markets has eased. El Niño’s tail-end and Indian monsoon outcomes remain critical watch points. Overall, supply fundamentals remain sound, and spot and futures prices reflect an industry geared up to handle both domestic and modest export obligations.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Change	Update Date
Sugar granulated	LT	Mirijampole	ICUMSA 45, 0.2-1.2 mm	0.55	0.55	0.00	2025-07-29
Sugar granulated	LT	Mirijampole	ICUMSA 45, 0.2-1.2 mm	0.56	0.56	0.00	2025-07-29
Sugar granulated	GB	Norfolk	ICUMSA 32, 0.300-0.600 mm	0.55	0.56	-0.01	2025-07-29
Sugar granulated	UA	Vinnytsia Oblast	ICUMSA 45, 0.4-1.00 mm	0.58	0.58	0.00	2025-07-29
Sugar granulated	DE	Berlin	ICUMSA 45, 0.4-0.65 mm	0.69	0.69	0.00	2025-07-29
Sugar granulated	CZ	Vyškov	ICUMSA 45, 0.5-0.75 mm	0.58	0.57	+0.01	2025-07-29

Exchange Highlights:

• ICE Futures US (Raw Sugar): ~24.35 c/lb (2025-07-29), +0.8% WoW, Neutral
• Euronext (White Sugar): ~670 EUR/tonne (2025-07-29), -0.4% WoW, Sideways

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India 2025-26 production estimated at 34.8 million tonnes, with no anticipated need for imports.
• Opening stock for Oct. 2025: 9 million tonnes; domestic consumption: 29.5 million tonnes.
• Sowing and cane crop conditions in India are generally favorable.
• Brazil’s Centre-South region continues strong crushing; 2025 harvest up ~3% YoY.
• Thailand sees recovery post-drought; 2025 output projected at 10.7 million tonnes.

📊 Fundamentals

• ISMA reaffirms sufficient stock and smooth supply for domestic needs and ethanol blending.
• Bumper stocks in India lessen pressure on global prices, even if domestic exports increase moderately.
• Global consumption outpaces production for a second year, but large exporters (Brazil, Thailand, India) mitigate tightness.
• Speculators reduced net long positions as weather and crop conditions improved.
• Global inventories stable; regional tightness possible if weather risks reemerge in Q3/Q4 2025.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Indian monsoon: Rainfall normal-to-above-average expected in August/September, positive for cane growth.
• Brazil (Centre-South): Dry, mild weather, aiding rapid harvest and crushing.
• Thailand: Seasonal rainfall supportive; no significant drought risk on horizon.

Potential effect: Favorable weather is expected to underpin production in key zones, minimizing upside price risk from supply shocks in the short to medium term.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (m tonnes)	2025/26 Output (Est.)	Stocks (m tonnes)
India	33.0	34.8	9.0 (Oct 2025)
Brazil	41.8	42.8	~5.2
Thailand	9.5	10.7	~2.7
EU	15.3	15.6	~2.5
China	9.7	10.0	~4.6

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Consider opportunistic stockbuilding at current levels; downside price movement limited given strong Northern Hemisphere fundamentals.
• Sellers: Price rallies near recent highs may offer good hedging opportunities, particularly if Indian monsoon or Brazilian harvest diverges from forecasts.
• Speculators: Watch for volatility tied to Indian monsoon outcomes and Brazilian Centre-South harvest pace; current sentiment neutral.
• Industry: Monitor government policy on ethanol blending mandates and export quotas in India and Brazil for structural shifts in demand.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Price Forecast	Sentiment
ICE Futures US (Raw Sugar)	24.1–24.6 c/lb	Stable to Firm; risk skewed to upside if India monsoon falters
Euronext (White Sugar)	665–675 EUR/tonne	Sideways; closely tracking Brazilian shipping data
Central Europe (Spot, Granulated)	0.55–0.58 EUR/kg	Flat; good near-term availability and logistics