Global sugar markets enter the autumn period with a firm but cautious tone. ICE futures for both white and raw sugar saw modest gains as of September 25, 2025, with white sugar contracts (No. 5) at ICE London closing notably higher across the curve—December 2025 at USD 462.90/t (+0.91%), and raw sugar (No. 11) at ICE New York also ticking up, October 2025 closing at 15.76 USc/lb (+0.76%). Still, the physical sugar market in Europe continues to show a slow easing pattern, with ex-mill FCA offers drifting lower between EUR 0.52 and 0.57/kg across top origins. This juxtaposition of resilient futures and softening spot rates underscores the complex global balance: while recent harvest downgrades in major origins like Brazil and India are underpinning futures, sizable stocks in the EU and CIS and export momentum from Thailand and Russia are damping nearby premiums.
Exporters and refiners are keenly monitoring El Niño’s lingering effects and shifting rainfall patterns in Asia and South America, with global forecasts signaling persisting risks for cane output volatility into Q1 2026. Speculators are trimming net long positions from 2024 outsize highs, but remain constructive amid slow demand uptick and government price interventions across importing countries. Meanwhile, international buyers are expected to remain attentive as world market values flirt with long-term averages but may turn volatile should weather shocks materialize or macroeconomic sentiment shift. Physical traders can look ahead to relatively stable supply, but should remain nimble for renewed upside should weather or policy disrupt the fragile equilibrium.
📈 Prices & Exchanges
| Contract | Closing Price | Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE White Sugar (No.5) Dec 25 | USD 462.90/t | +0.91% | Firm/Bullish |
| ICE White Sugar (No.5) Mar 26 | USD 455.50/t | +0.90% | Firm |
| ICE Raw Sugar (No.11) Oct 25 | 15.76 USc/lb | +0.76% | Steady |
| ICE Raw Sugar (No.11) Mar 26 | 16.28 USc/lb | +0.92% | Uptrend |
| Type | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gran. Sugar ICUMSA 32 | GB | Norfolk, UK | 0.53 | 0.54 | 25.09.2025 |
| Gran. Sugar ICUMSA 32 | GB | Norfolk, UK | 0.54 | 0.55 | 25.09.2025 |
| Gran. Sugar ICUMSA 45 | GB | Norfolk, UK | 0.54 | 0.54 | 25.09.2025 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Brazil: Q3 crush lower than 2024, but favorable currency aids exports. Port statistics indicate normal export flows; dryness limits planting outlook for 2026.
- India: Cane acreage stable; government likely to curb white sugar exports into Q1 2026 to protect domestic needs. Domestic prices elevated.
- EU & CIS: Large carryover stocks in 2025; spot market slow, weaken physical premiums despite steady demand.
- Thailand & Russia: Strong 2025 output, higher export availabilities especially into East Asia and Africa.
- Speculation: Net long futures positions below previous year highs—but large compared to 5-year average.
📊 Fundamentals Snapshot
- USDA Outlook: 2025/26 global sugar output revised slightly down, but stocks-to-use ratio steady near 20%.
- Global Stocks: Recovering after 2024/25 deficits, with most gains in Asia and EU.
- Consumption: Rebounding gradually post-COVID, especially in MENA, but still sluggish in SE Asia.
| Country | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | 2025/26 Output Est. (Mt) | Ending Stocks Est. (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 42.4 | 41.7 | 3.1 |
| India | 33.3 | 32.7 | 5.7 |
| EU+UK | 17.5 | 18.0 | 2.6 |
| Thailand | 10.1 | 12.0 | 2.2 |
| Russia | 6.8 | 7.0 | 0.9 |
🌦️ Weather & Growing Conditions
- Brazil South-Central: Recent rainfall relief mitigates early drought, but long-term deficits remain. Next 14 days: below-normal precipitation risk.
- India (Maharashtra/UP): Monsoon withdrawal delayed, but reserves sufficient for current crop. Initial cold snap forecasted for late September.
- Thailand: Consistent rain supports crush recovery; cyclone risks minimal in short term.
- EU (France/DE/CZ): Mixed—Central Europe faces excessive rainfall, could delay beet harvests by 2–3 weeks in some regions.
📆 Trading Outlook & Actionable Insights
- Short-term: Market may consolidate gains—futures remain supported by weather risks; buyers can target any spot market dips below EUR 0.52–0.53/kg for forward cover.
- Producers: Consider locking in basis contracts if No.5/No.11 spreads widen further.
- Physical buyers: Benefit from softening premiums in European and CIS supply; maintain close watch for any abrupt weather shifts.
- Speculators: Bullish volatility possible on adverse weather—stay nimble and watch positioning reports.
- Long-term: Upside risks persist into Q1 2026, should India or Brazil results disappoint.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Sep 26 | Sep 27 | Sep 28 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE White Sugar (No.5) Dec 25 (USD/t) | 463 | 464 | 463 |
| ICE Raw Sugar (No.11) Oct 25 (USC/lb) | 15.8 | 15.9 | 15.8 |
| Spot Sugar Europe (EUR/kg) | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.52 |
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