Sugar Market Slips Again – Recovery Loses Steam Amid Soft Demand

📉 Sugar Market Slips Again – Recovery Loses Steam Amid Soft Demand

After a sharp rebound on Thursday, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures edged lower on 11 April 2025. The May 2025 contract fell by 0.17% to USD 523.00/t (EUR 486.39/t), with most near-term contracts closing in the red. While back months ticked slightly higher, the market remains under pressure from weak demand and firm EU prices.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (11.04.2025)

Contract	Close (USD/t)	Change (%)	Close (EUR/t)
May 25	523.00	-0.17%	486.39
Aug 25	503.50	-0.30%	468.26
Oct 25	498.10	-0.30%	463.23
Dec 25	496.90	-0.18%	462.12
Mar 26	498.40	+0.08%	462.51
May 26	495.50	+0.08%	460.82

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

🔻 Correction Fades – Market Awaits Direction
– The Friday session showed no follow-through from Thursday’s speculative bounce.
– Most trading remains short-term and directionless – volatility is likely to continue.

🇪🇺 EU Spot Offers Still Rising
– Producers now quoting EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA for Q2 deliveries.
– Market participants expect a further push toward EUR 0.60/kg next week, despite softening global prices.

🛍️ Retail Pressure Remains
– Prices in Poland, Czech Republic, and Germany show no movement, with deep discounting still reported.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 10.04.2025)

Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.

Country	Supermarket	Price per kg (EUR)	Note/Source
Germany	Edeka	0.69 €	Promotional price (recently expired)
Poland	Biedronka	0.42 €	Standard shelf price
Austria	SPAR	1.58 €	0.79 €/500 g Staubzucker
Czech Rep.	Kaufland	0.50 €	With Kaufland Card
France	Carrefour	1.60 €	Promotional offer
UK	Tesco	0.96 €	£0.82 Aldi Price Match
Netherlands	Albert Heijn	1.79 €	Bonus price

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (12–14 April 2025)

Date	USD/t Range	EUR/t Range
12 Apr	515 – 525	479 – 488
13 Apr	513 – 523	477 – 487
14 Apr	510 – 520	474 – 483

📌 Outlook:
Sideways to slightly weaker movement is likely, unless demand or supply headlines emerge.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

Year	Production	Consumption	Ending Stocks
2021/22	17.0 Mt	18.0 Mt	4.0 Mt
2022/23	16.5 Mt	17.8 Mt	3.8 Mt
2023/24	15.9 Mt	17.5 Mt	3.5 Mt
2024/25*	16.2 Mt	17.3 Mt	3.3 Mt

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Futures stable but directionless – waiting for fresh inputs.
❌ EU pricing continues to rise despite falling global levels.
📉 Buyers sceptical – disconnect between paper and physical market widening again.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Avoid long-term commitments at rising EU prices – market not aligned.
• 📦 Sellers: Try to lock in forward deals while prices are still supported technically.
• 📊 Traders: Be cautious – a breakdown below USD 510/t could trigger further selling.

📍 Sugar remains headline-driven, but fundamentals argue for caution.