Sugar No.11 Rallies Off Lows as New Crop Curve Firms

Flat ICE No.11 sugar futures rallied across the curve on 3 August, with nearby October 2026 up over 2%, signaling a short‑term recovery from recent lows and a firmer forward structure. The curve remains gently upward sloping into 2028–29, reflecting moderate tightening expectations but no acute supply shock. For physical buyers and producers, this is a bounce within a still relatively low‑priced environment compared with past bull cycles. Sugar cane and refined sugar markets are stabilizing after months of pressure, as futures and Brazilian FOB offers both edge higher. The front ICE No.11 contract (Oct‑26) has moved above 15 USc/lb, and later contracts up to March 2029 are also gaining, suggesting renewed buying interest and some risk repricing on the supply side. Brazilian refined ICUMSA 45 offers have been nudging up in recent weeks, confirming that the futures rebound is feeding through to physical benchmarks, though price levels in EUR remain historically moderate.

Prices

The ICE No.11 sugar curve strengthened on 3 August 2026, with all listed contracts closing higher by around 1.7–2.4%.

• Oct 2026 settled at 15.01 USc/lb, up 0.35 USc (+2.33%) on the day, recovering from an intraday low of 14.61 USc/lb.
• Key 2027 contracts closed between 15.69 and 15.98 USc/lb, each gaining about 2%.
• Further out, March 2028–March 2029 traded up to 16.64–17.02 USc/lb, with daily gains of 1.7–1.8%.

The curve shows a mild contango into 2029, pointing to adequate overall availability but with a risk premium for longer‑term supply and demand uncertainties.

Note: EUR/t values are indicative, based on current FX and raw sugar to white sugar conversion approximations.

Supply & Demand

The firmer forward curve suggests the market is starting to price in potential tightening from key cane regions (notably Brazil and India), but without clear evidence of severe deficits yet.

• Volumes are strongest in near‑term contracts (over 90,000 lots in Oct‑26), indicating that current crop and short‑range demand expectations drive most activity.
• Modest contango into 2028–29 points to structurally sufficient supply but with uncertainty around weather, export policies and ethanol competition.
• Refined sugar offers from Brazil (ICUMSA 45 FOB São Paulo) have in late 2024 traded around 0.51–0.53 EUR/kg, with a mild upward trend, consistent with today’s futures recovery.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals currently look balanced to slightly supportive. The broad-based rise across all ICE No.11 contracts indicates buying beyond pure short‑covering and hints at an improving demand outlook or weather‑related risk premium.

• Stronger deferred contracts into 2028–29 reflect concerns about future cane output and policy risks in major exporters.
• Physical refined benchmarks in Brazil show incremental gains in EUR terms, suggesting that the futures move is underpinned by real‑market demand.
• Weather in key producing areas over the coming days will be closely watched for confirmation of any emerging crop stress that could tighten the balance.

Overall, fundamentals do not yet point to an acute shortage, but today’s price action signals that the phase of persistent downside pressure may be ending.

Short-term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Producers: Use the current rally to layer in additional hedges for 2026/27 and early 2028, especially where margins are now positive in EUR terms.
• Industrial buyers: Consider covering a portion of 2026/27 needs soon; the pronounced daily rebound suggests limited downside without fresh bearish news.
• Traders: The mild contango offers opportunities for calendar spreads; bias should be modestly bullish while prices hold above the recent intraday lows.

Directional bias for the next three trading days is cautiously higher for ICE No.11 and Brazilian refined FOB benchmarks in EUR, with intraday volatility likely as the market tests resistance above current levels.